- Contents
- *Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
What you need to know
Sales of total milk grew 18% from 2009-14, reaching $18.9 billion. Estimated 2014 saw the largest sales increase since 2011. Success comes from rising non-dairy milk popularity, high dairy milk prices, and dairy milk repositioning itself to align with current health trends.
Mintel predicts steady category growth through 2019, reaching $21.4 billion. Forecasts expect non-dairy milk to continue making healthy progress while dairy milk’s struggles to remain relevant, cancel the former segment’s gains, limiting overall category growth.
This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Milk, Creamer, and Non-dairy Milk – US, April 2014; as well as Dairy and Non-dairy Milk – US, April 2013 and the April 2012 report of the same title; Milk – US, April 2010 , May 2009, and June 2007.
Definition
Mintel uses the following definitions in this report:
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Dairy milk: refrigerated skim/lowfat milk; refrigerated whole milk; refrigerated flavored milk/eggnog/buttermilk; and shelf-stable RTD milk/milk substitutes (primarily single-serve flavored milk in aseptic packaging).
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Non-dairy milk: refrigerated and shelf-stable ready-to-drink almond milk, coconut milk, soy milk, and other non-dairy milks, including hemp milk, and nut milks.
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Excluded from this report are cream and creamers.
Value figures throughout this report are at (rsp) retail selling prices excluding sales tax unless otherwise stated.
Sales data
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Market Size and Forecast: Total retail sales based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; SPINS; USDA Economic Research Service
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Retail Channels: based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews; SPINS; USDA Economic Research Service; except supermarket and drugstore sales, which are based on Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews.
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Leading Companies and Brand Analysis: based on MULO sales data from Information Resources, Inc. InfoScan Reviews. MULO is defined as Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total US Grocery, Mass, Total US Drug, Total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club. Note that the values shown in this section differ from the Market Size/Forecast and Segment Performance sections of this report. Companies and brands sales data encompass only sales through MULO channels while Market Size/Forecast and Segment sales cover the entire retail market.
SPINS LLC provides point-of-sales data for the total milk market in the natural, organic, and specialty products industry. The segmentation shown in this report is custom to Mintel and does not correspond directly to SPINS’ category organization.
Consumer survey data
For the purposes of this report, Mintel commissioned exclusive consumer research through Lightspeed GMI to explore consumer consumption of, and attitudes and behaviors towards the total milk market. Mintel was responsible for the survey design, data analysis, and reporting. Fieldwork was conducted in January 2015 among a sample of 2,000 adults aged 18+ with access to the internet.
Mintel selects survey respondents by gender, age, household income, and region so that they are proportionally representative of the US adult population using the internet. Mintel also slightly over-samples, relative to the population, respondents that are Hispanic or Black to ensure an adequate representation of these groups in our survey results and to allow for more precise parameter estimates from our reported findings.
Please note that Mintel surveys are conducted online and in English only. Hispanics who are not online and/or do not speak English are not included in the survey results.
Mintel has also analyzed data from Experian Marketing Services, using the Simmons NCS (National Consumer Study). The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS/NHCS was carried out during August 2013 – September 2014 and the results are based on the sample of 26,053 adults aged 18+, with results weighted to represent the US adult population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Teen Study was conducted during April 2013 – June 2014 and based on a sample of 1,692 teenagers aged 12-17, with results weighted to represent the US teen population. The Experian Marketing Services, Simmons NCS Kids Study was conducted during April 2013 – June 2014 and based on a sample of 1,677 kids aged 6-11, with results weighted to represent the US kid population.
While race and Hispanic origin are separate demographic characteristics, Mintel often compares them to each other. Please note that the responses to race (White, Black, Asian, Native American, or other race) will overlap those that also are Hispanic, because Hispanics can be of any race.
In addition to quantitative consumer research, Mintel also conducted an online discussion group among a demographically mixed group of adults aged 18+. This discussion group was asynchronous (ie, not run in real time), functioning like a blog or bulletin board, with questions remaining posted for a predetermined period. This method allows participants to respond reflectively, at their leisure, or to log off to think about any issues raised, and return later to respond. Participants were recruited from GMI’s online consumer panel with responses collected in January 2015. All quotes are included verbatim, and as such, include typos and other grammatical errors as they originally appeared.
Abbreviations
The following is a list of abbreviations used in this report:
| CPI | Consumer Price Index |
| CSD | Carbonated soft drink |
| GNPD | Global New Products Database |
| MULO | Multi Outlet, representative of the following channels: total U.S. Grocery, Mass, total U.S. Drug, total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club |
| NCS/NHCS | National Consumer Study/National Hispanic Consumer Study (Experian Marketing Services) |
| rsp | Retail selling price |
| RTD | Ready to drink |
Generations are discussed within this report, and they are defined as:
| World War II/Swing generations | Members of the WWII generation were born in 1932 or before and are aged 83 or older in 2015. Members of the Swing Generation were born from 1933-45 and are aged 70-82 in 2015. |
| Baby Boomers | The generation born between 1946 and 1964. In 2015, Baby Boomers are between the ages of 51 and 69. |
| Generation X | The generation born between 1965 and 1976. In 2015, Gen Xers are between the ages of 39 and 50. |
| Millennials* | Born between 1977 and 1994, Millennials are aged 21 to 38 in 2015. |
| iGeneration | Born between 1995 and 2007, members of iGen are aged 8 to 20 in 2015. |
| Emerging generation | The newest generation began in 2008 as the annual number of births declined sharply with the recession. In 2015 members of this as-yet-unnamed generation are aged 0 to 7. |
* Also known as Generation Y or Echo Boomers
In order to provide an inflation-adjusted price value for markets, Mintel uses the CPI to deflate current prices. The CPI is defined as follows:
| CPI | The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI and its components are typically used to adjust other economic series for price changes and to translate these series into inflation-free dollars. Examples of series adjusted by the CPI include retail sales, hourly, and weekly earnings, and components of the national income and product accounts. In addition, and in Mintel reports, the CPI is used as a deflator of the value of the consumer’s dollar to find its purchasing power. The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar measures the change in the value to the consumer of goods and services that a dollar will buy at different dates. The CPI is generally the best measure for adjusting payments to consumers when the intent is to allow consumers to purchase, at today’s prices, a market basket of goods and services equivalent to one that they could purchase in an earlier period. It is also the best measure to use to translate retail sales into real or inflation-free dollars. Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definition. |
