Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- In-store bakery sales growth expected to continue
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
- Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
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- Figure 2: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
- Need to evolve appeal beyond larger households
- The opportunities
- In-store bakeries as an economical indulgence
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- Figure 3: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
- Flavor affording opportunity
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- Figure 4: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
- Leveraging freshness and variety
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- Figure 5: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Continuing sales increases expected for the category
- Strong growth in dessert sales for in-store bakeries
- Stand-alone bakeries offer distinct competition
- Declining number of households with children
Market Size and Forecast
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- In-store bakeries projected to see continued sales increases
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Breakfast emerging as in-store bakery occasion
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Desserts register strong sales growth over last two years
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices in thousands, 2015 and 2017, % change from 2015 in parentheses
Market Perspective
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- Prepared cakes/pies see rising sales but fall short in terms of fresh
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- Figure 10: Sales of prepared cakes and pies, by segment, 2013 and 2015
- Competition from stand-alone bakeries
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- Figure 11: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Market Factors
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- Consumer spending on food trending higher
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- Figure 12: Food sales at home and away from home, January 2003-January 2017
- Households with children more likely to turn to ISB offerings
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- Figure 13: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
- Hispanic consumers over index in the use of in-store bakeries
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- Figure 14: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Price matters but not as strongly as some other attributes
- Health attributes may deter consumers from more-indulgent options
- Free-from could communicate natural
What’s Working?
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- Price matters
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- Figure 15: Notable in-store bakery dessert launches, 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Health, a possible deterrent in certain segments
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- Figure 16: True Goodness by Meijer Organic Whole Grain Hot Dog Buns, 2017
What’s Next?
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- Free-from claims could resonate
- Flavor affording opportunity
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- Figure 17: Increasing purchase through flavors, April 2017
- Figure 18: Walmart Marketside Pepperoni Cheese Bread, 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Younger generations turning to in-store bakeries
- Strong interest in freshness
- Naturally good
- Variety resonating with younger consumers
- Occasional opportunities
- Consumers seeking organic options
- Diverse options for an increasingly diverse population
- In-store bakery usage chiefly in supermarkets
- ISB-loyal consumers and price
- Consumers say they value freshness even over price
Purchase Frequency
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- Consumption of baked goods
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- Figure 19: Purchase frequency, April 2017
- Opportunities in increasing frequency
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- Figure 20: Purchase frequency, by age, April 2017
- Evolving beyond larger households
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- Figure 21: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
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- Figure 22: Purchase frequency, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
- Distinct opportunities among younger Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 23: Purchase frequency, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Purchase Factors
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- Fresh factors most strongly
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- Figure 24: Purchase factors, April 2017
- Freshness and variety appeal to frequent shoppers
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- Figure 25: Purchase frequency, by purchase factors, April 2017
- Factors to increase purchase
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- Figure 26: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, April 2017
Natural Factors
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- Nutrients resonate with younger consumers
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- Figure 27: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
- Younger, higher-income consumers factoring nutrients and lack of allergens
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- Figure 28: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
- Figure 29: Purchase factors, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
- Older Hispanic consumers strongly likely to consider health
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- Figure 30: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Flavor Factors
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- Fresh resonates most strongly with youngest consumers
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- Figure 31: Purchase factors, by age, April 2017
- Variety appeals to younger households with higher income levels
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- Figure 32: Purchase factors, by age and household income, April 2017
- Flavor’s strong appeal to Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 33: Purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Usage
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- Potential in special occasions
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- Figure 34: Usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
- Hispanics more likely to use for special occasions
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- Figure 35: Usage of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Increasing Purchase
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- Health concerns offset by portioning
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- Figure 36: Increasing purchase, April 2017
- Organic claims resonate strongly with younger generations
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- Figure 37: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
- Organic options may resonate with consumers seeking healthy treats
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- Figure 38: Increasing purchase, by number of children under 18 in household, April 2017
- Hispanic Millennial attitudes reflect Millennials’ overall
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- Figure 39: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Flavor Improvements
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- In-store bakeries can assist during time-stressed holiday seasons
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- Figure 40: Increasing purchase, April 2017
- Time savings from in-store bakeries
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- Figure 41: Increasing purchase, by age, April 2017
- Diverse options could reach a diverse audience
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- Figure 42: Increasing purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
- Maximizing in-store bakery potential
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- Figure 43: TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
Purchase Location
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- Supermarket ISBs resonating more so than other retailers’
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- Figure 44: Purchase location, April 2017
- Unexplored potential for mass merchandisers’ and natural stores’ in-store bakeries
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- Figure 45: Purchase location, April 2017
- In-store bakery may create a sense of consumer loyalty
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- Figure 46: Purchase location, by repertoire of usage of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Brands and Baked
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- Quality factors strongly among bakery items
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- Figure 47: Opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
- Baked goods as reassurance
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- Figure 48: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by household income, April 2017
- Hispanic Millennial moms appear to be gatekeepers
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- Figure 49: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
- Frequent ISB consumers appear less impacted by price
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- Figure 50: Purchase frequency, by opinions of in-store bakeries, April 2017
Quality of Baked Goods
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- Fresh appears more impactful even than price
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- Figure 51: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by gender and age, April 2017
- Fresh appreciation among Hispanic non-Millennials, in particular
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- Figure 52: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Impact of In-store Competition
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- Bakery expertise could be a draw
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- Figure 53: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by age, April 2017
- Leveraging expertise via social media and apps
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- Figure 54: Opinions of in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, April 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of in-store bakery products, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of breakfast bakery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 66: Bread types eaten, by gender, 2016
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- Figure 67: Bread types eaten, by age, 2016
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- Figure 68: Bread types eaten, by race, 2016
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- Figure 69: Bread types eaten, by Hispanic origin, 2016
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- Figure 70: Bread types eaten, by household income, 2016
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- Figure 71: Bread types eaten, by education level, 2016
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- Figure 72: Bread types eaten, by presence of children in the household, 2016
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- Figure 73: Bread types eaten, by region, 2016
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TURF Analysis Methodology
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- Methodology
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- Figure 74: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, March 2017
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- Figure 75: Table – TURF Analysis – Purchase increase, March 2017
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