Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Category grows 28% from 2011-16
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
- 90% of US households purchase nuts, seeds or trail mix
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- Figure 2: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
- Convenience, nutrition important purchase drivers
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- Figure 3: Innovation areas, April 2016
- The opportunities
- Promote occasions beyond snacking
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- Figure 4: Product use, April 2016
- Cater to the on-the-go consumer
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- Figure 5: Behaviors, April 2016
- Emphasize nutrition while alleviating concerns about fat and sodium
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- Figure 6: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need To Know
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- Sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
- Supermarkets are not the leading retailer
- Competition from private label and other snacks
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Nuts segment represents three quarters of category sales
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment share, 2016
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Other retail channels dominate
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
- Natural channel sales flat
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
Market Perspective
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- Private label a viable threat
- Other snacks provide similar benefits
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- Figure 15: Attitudes and opinions about food – Any agree, 2010-15
Market Factors
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- Snacking is the new norm
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- Figure 16: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
- Obesity on the rise
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- Figure 17: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
- US demographics shifting
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- Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
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- Figure 19: Population by generation share, 2016
- Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Sales fragmented, private label represents one third of sales
- Bold, indulgent flavors keep consumers interested in the category
- Segment blurring brings meat snacks and trail mix together
- Opportunity to position products for specific occasions, functions
Manufacturer Sales of Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix
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- Private label represents more than one third of category sales
- Manufacturer sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Bold flavors
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of Planters nuts
- Figure 23: MULO sales of Blue Diamond Growers nuts
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of Thanasi Foods LLC seeds
- Simple preparations
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of Planters seeds
- Figure 26: MULO sales of Fisher nuts
- Trail mix combining flavors and textures
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of Kar’s trail mix
- Figure 28: MULO sales of Second Nature trail mix
- Private label products
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- Figure 29: Branded and private label nuts, seeds and trail mix product launches, 2011-15
- Figure 30: MULO sales of private label nuts, seeds and trail mix
What’s Struggling?
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- Leading trail mix brand takes a hit
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of Planters trail mix
- Figure 32: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. trail mix
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of Diamond Foods Inc.* trail mix
- Leading seeds brands not sprouting
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- Figure 34: MULO sales of ConAgra Foods Inc. seeds
- Figure 35: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. seeds
What’s Next?
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- Meat snack trail mix
- International influences
- Smart indulgences
- Specific occasions and benefits
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 90% of households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
- Snacking occasions driving consumption
- Consumers value bold flavors, yet prefer to stick with tradition
- Nearly half eat on the go
- Health and nutrition drive purchases
Nuts, Seeds, and Trail Mix Purchase
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- Nearly all households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
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- Figure 36: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
- Purchase skews toward higher-income households
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- Figure 37: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by household income, April 2016
- Millennials significantly more likely to make any purchase
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- Figure 38: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
- Hispanics more likely to purchase all types of nuts, seeds and trail mix
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- Figure 39: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Product Use
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- Snack occasions most common
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- Figure 40: Product use, April 2016
- Trail mix purchasers most likely to use it as a snack
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- Figure 41: Product use, by nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
- Women more likely to snack, use these products as an ingredient
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- Figure 42: Product use, by gender, April 2016
- Hispanics least likely to eat nuts, seeds, or trail mix as a snack
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- Figure 43: Product use, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
Flavor Innovation
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- Consumers prefer traditional flavors
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- Figure 44: Flavor innovation, April 2016
- Familiar flavors can reach a majority audience
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- Figure 45: TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016
Innovation Areas
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- Resealable packaging, nutrition and simple ingredients most important
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- Figure 46: Innovation areas, April 2016
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- Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
- Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of organic nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
- Parents want added nutrition, non-parents care about simplicity
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- Figure 49: Innovation areas, by parental status, April 2016
- Millennials want products to fuel them on-the-go
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- Figure 50: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
- High protein most important to Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 51: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
Behaviors
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- Nearly half of consumers eat on the go
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- Figure 52: Behaviors, April 2016
- Millennials are super purchasers
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- Figure 53: Behaviors, by generation, April 2016
- Parents eating nuts, seeds, and trail mix across locations
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- Figure 54: Behaviors, by parental status, April 2016
- Hispanics are buying more products and snacking more in general
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- Figure 55: Behaviors, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Attitudes toward Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix
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- Health and nutrition are key purchase drivers
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- Figure 56: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
- Millennials value convenience, satiety and bold flavors
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- Figure 57: Attitudes, any agree, by generation, April 2016
- Concerns about fat and sodium content amplified among parents
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- Figure 58: Attitudes, any agree, by parental status, April 2016
- Hispanics most favorable toward health and nutrition benefits
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- Figure 59: Attitudes, any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Market breakdown
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
- Retail channels
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix , by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 65: US supermarket sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 66: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 67: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
- Natural channels
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- Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
- Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix with non-GMO claim, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
- Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
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- Figure 71: Natural supermarket sales of "natural" labeled/perceived nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
- Figure 72: Natural supermarket sales of seeds, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
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- Figure 73: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 74: MULO sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 75: MULO sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 76: MULO sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 77: Leisure activities/hobbies
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Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 78: Table – TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016
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