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Nuts, Seeds and Trail Mix - US - June 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Category grows 28% from 2011-16
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
90% of US households purchase nuts, seeds or trail mix
Figure 2: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
Convenience, nutrition important purchase drivers
Figure 3: Innovation areas, April 2016
The opportunities
Promote occasions beyond snacking
Figure 4: Product use, April 2016
Cater to the on-the-go consumer
Figure 5: Behaviors, April 2016
Emphasize nutrition while alleviating concerns about fat and sodium
Figure 6: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
Supermarkets are not the leading retailer
Competition from private label and other snacks
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category sales reach $8.6 billion in 2016
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Nuts segment represents three quarters of category sales
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment share, 2016
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Other retail channels dominate
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Natural channel sales flat
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014-Mar. 20, 2016
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Private label a viable threat
Other snacks provide similar benefits
Figure 15: Attitudes and opinions about food – Any agree, 2010-15
MARKET FACTORS
Snacking is the new norm
Figure 16: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
Obesity on the rise
Figure 17: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
US demographics shifting
Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Figure 19: Population by generation share, 2016
Figure 20: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Sales fragmented, private label represents one third of sales
Bold, indulgent flavors keep consumers interested in the category
Segment blurring brings meat snacks and trail mix together
Opportunity to position products for specific occasions, functions
MANUFACTURER SALES OF NUTS, SEEDS AND TRAIL MIX
Private label represents more than one third of category sales
Manufacturer sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix
Figure 21: MULO sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
WHAT’S WORKING?
Bold flavors
Figure 22: MULO sales of Planters nuts
Figure 23: MULO sales of Blue Diamond Growers nuts
Figure 24: MULO sales of Thanasi Foods LLC seeds
Simple preparations
Figure 25: MULO sales of Planters seeds
Figure 26: MULO sales of Fisher nuts
Trail mix combining flavors and textures
Figure 27: MULO sales of Kar’s trail mix
Figure 28: MULO sales of Second Nature trail mix
Private label products
Figure 29: Branded and private label nuts, seeds and trail mix product launches, 2011-15
Figure 30: MULO sales of private label nuts, seeds and trail mix
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Leading trail mix brand takes a hit
Figure 31: MULO sales of Planters trail mix
Figure 32: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. trail mix
Figure 33: MULO sales of Diamond Foods Inc.* trail mix
Leading seeds brands not sprouting
Figure 34: MULO sales of ConAgra Foods Inc. seeds
Figure 35: MULO sales of TreeHouse Foods Inc. seeds
WHAT’S NEXT?
Meat snack trail mix
International influences
Smart indulgences
Specific occasions and benefits
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
90% of households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
Snacking occasions driving consumption
Consumers value bold flavors, yet prefer to stick with tradition
Nearly half eat on the go
Health and nutrition drive purchases
NUTS, SEEDS, AND TRAIL MIX PURCHASE
Nearly all households buy nuts, seeds, or trail mix
Figure 36: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
Purchase skews toward higher-income households
Figure 37: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by household income, April 2016
Millennials significantly more likely to make any purchase
Figure 38: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
Hispanics more likely to purchase all types of nuts, seeds and trail mix
Figure 39: Nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, any purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
PRODUCT USE
Snack occasions most common
Figure 40: Product use, April 2016
Trail mix purchasers most likely to use it as a snack
Figure 41: Product use, by nuts, seeds and trail mix purchase, April 2016
Women more likely to snack, use these products as an ingredient
Figure 42: Product use, by gender, April 2016
Hispanics least likely to eat nuts, seeds, or trail mix as a snack
Figure 43: Product use, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
FLAVOR INNOVATION
Consumers prefer traditional flavors
Figure 44: Flavor innovation, April 2016
Familiar flavors can reach a majority audience
Figure 45: TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016
INNOVATION AREAS
Resealable packaging, nutrition and simple ingredients most important
Figure 46: Innovation areas, April 2016
Figure 47: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of organic nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Parents want added nutrition, non-parents care about simplicity
Figure 49: Innovation areas, by parental status, April 2016
Millennials want products to fuel them on-the-go
Figure 50: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
High protein most important to Hispanic consumers
Figure 51: Innovation areas, by Millennials and Non-Millennials, April 2016
BEHAVIORS
Nearly half of consumers eat on the go
Figure 52: Behaviors, April 2016
Millennials are super purchasers
Figure 53: Behaviors, by generation, April 2016
Parents eating nuts, seeds, and trail mix across locations
Figure 54: Behaviors, by parental status, April 2016
Hispanics are buying more products and snacking more in general
Figure 55: Behaviors, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD NUTS, SEEDS AND TRAIL MIX
Health and nutrition are key purchase drivers
Figure 56: Attitudes, any agree, April 2016
Millennials value convenience, satiety and bold flavors
Figure 57: Attitudes, any agree, by generation, April 2016
Concerns about fat and sodium content amplified among parents
Figure 58: Attitudes, any agree, by parental status, April 2016
Hispanics most favorable toward health and nutrition benefits
Figure 59: Attitudes, any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Market breakdown
Figure 60: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of nuts, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of seeds, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of trail mix, at current prices, 2011-21
Retail channels
Figure 64: Total US retail sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix , by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
Figure 65: US supermarket sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 66: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 67: US convenience store sales of nuts, seeds, and trail mix through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
Natural channels
Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix with non-GMO claim, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, seeds and trail mix, by "natural" labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 71: Natural supermarket sales of "natural" labeled/perceived nuts, seeds and trail mix, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 72: Natural supermarket sales of seeds, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
Figure 73: Natural supermarket sales of nuts, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending Mar. 23, 2014 and Mar. 20, 2016
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 74: MULO sales of nuts, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 75: MULO sales of seeds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
Figure 76: MULO sales of trail mix, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 77: Leisure activities/hobbies
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 78: Table – TURF analysis – Flavor innovation, April 2016

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