Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
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- Figure 1: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
- Market factors
- Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
- Ageing population could stifle growth
- Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
- Companies and brands
- Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
- Own-label continues to have the upper hand
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
- Companies look to bite-sized formats and after-dinner occasions
- Adspend continues to rise in 2015
- The consumer
- Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
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- Figure 3: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
- Snacking fuels usage of cakes
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- Figure 4: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
- Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
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- Figure 5: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
- Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
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- Figure 6: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
- A lack of cakes sold in single portions
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Scope to build on morning consumption through breakfast products
- The facts
- The implications
- Cakes boasting superfoods can capitalise on interest in ‘positive nutrition’
- The facts
- The implications
- Encouraging at-home personalisation can boost gifting
- The Facts
- The Implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
- Small cakes lead
- Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
- Ageing population could stifle growth
- Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
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- Figure 8: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
- The future
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- Figure 9: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
- Small cakes lead
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- Figure 10: UK value retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2013-15
- Growth in large cakes in 2015
- Celebration cakes are on the up
Market Drivers
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- Sugar concerns pose a challenge
- Improving the health profile of cakes
- Ageing population could stifle growth
- Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label continues to have the upper hand
- Premier Foods dwarfs other manufacturers in branded cakes
- Strong growth for Thorntons
- Supermarkets extend premium ranges
- Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
- Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
- Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
- Adspend continues to rise in 2015
Market Share
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- Own-label continues to have the upper hand
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- Figure 11: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
- Figure 12: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
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- Figure 13: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Premier Foods steady at the top
- Innovation from McVitie’s has not translated into an uplift
- Strong growth for Thorntons
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Supermarkets extend premium ranges
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- Figure 14: New product launches in the UK cake, pastries and sweet baked goods market, by private-label and branded, 2011-15*
- Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
- Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
- More large cakes are added to the Mr Kipling portfolio
- Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
- Inspiration from the cocktail category…
- …and milkshakes
- Growth in gluten-free
- Limited L/N/R innovation
- Manufacturers’ hands are tied when it comes to sugar
- Low-fat options could be further explored
- Oats boost health credentials
- Cakes continue to attract brands from other categories
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend continues to rise in 2015
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- Figure 15: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2011-15
- Premier leads spend, supporting its Mr Kipling and Cadbury Cakes brands
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- Figure 16: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by advertiser, 2011-15
- Mondelēz focuses on the Barny brand
- New TV advertising push for Soreen in 2016
- Retailers step up investment, particularly at Christmas
- Nielsen Media Research coverage
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 17: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2015
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 18: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2015
- Brand attitudes: Cadbury cakes are well-trusted, and win on perceptions of quality
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- Figure 19: Attitudes, by brand, December 2015
- Brand personality: Soreen lacks excitement
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- Figure 20: Brand personality – macro image, December 2015
- Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
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- Figure 21: Brand personality – micro image, December 2015
- Brand analysis
- Thorntons stands out on indulgence and specialness
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- Figure 22: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, December 2015
- Cadbury Cakes delivers a fun factor, and elicits trust
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- Figure 23: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, December 2015
- McVitie’s Cakes are accessible and have a family slant
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- Figure 24: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, December 2015
- Mr Kipling seen to be traditional and family-orientated
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- Figure 25: User profile of Mr Kipling, December 2015
- Soreen stands out on health grounds
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- Figure 26: User profile of Soreen, December 2015
- The Fabulous Bakers
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- Figure 27: User profile of The Fabulous Bakers, December 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
- Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
- Snacking fuels usage of cakes
- Scope to build on morning consumption
- Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
- Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
- Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
- More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
- A lack of cakes sold in single portions
- Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
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- Figure 28: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
- ISB cakes are most commonly eaten
- Cake bars and slices win in terms of frequency of usage
- Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
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- Figure 29: Overall usage of cakes/cake bars in the last month, by type, by age group, December 2015
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- Figure 30: Usage of cakes/cake bars at least once a week, by type, by presence of children in household, December 2015
Usage Occasions
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- Snacking fuels usage of cakes…
- …With mid-afternoon the most popular time
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- Figure 31: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
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- Figure 32: Usage occasions, by age group, December 2015
- 45% of women eat cake as a dessert
- Scope to build on morning consumption
Factors Deemed Important when Buying a Cake as a Gift
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- Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
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- Figure 33: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
- Packaging can play an important role in aesthetics
- Premium ingredients are key
- Artisanal factors can create standout for gifting
Interest in Innovation in Cakes
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- Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
- Natural sweeteners not a Limited option in cakes
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- Figure 34: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
- Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
- Ancient grains have big potential in cakes
- Raw ingredients can bolster health perceptions
- More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
- Sweet and savoury flavours are highly popular
- Extreme flavours would also be a draw
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- Figure 35: Interest in flavour innovation in cakes, December 2015
- Cocktail and botanical flavours can build sophistication
- Cakes can play on mood-enhancement linked to herbal teas
Attitudes towards Cakes
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- Smaller formats push up usage frequency
- A lack of cakes sold in single portions
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- Figure 36: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
- Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
- The time is right to bring hybrid cakes to the retail sector
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 37: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by selected claim, 2011-15
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Market segmentation
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- Figure 38: UK value retail sales of small cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2013-15
- Figure 39: UK value retail sales of large cakes, by sub-segment, 2013-15
- Best- and worst-case forecast
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- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of cakes and cake bars
- Forecast Methodology
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