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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - March 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 THE MARKET
Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
Figure 1: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
Market factors
Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
Ageing population could stifle growth
Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
 COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
Own-label continues to have the upper hand
Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
Companies look to bite-sized formats and after-dinner occasions
Adspend continues to rise in 2015
 THE CONSUMER
Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
Figure 3: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
Snacking fuels usage of cakes
Figure 4: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
Figure 5: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
Figure 6: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
A lack of cakes sold in single portions
Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Scope to build on morning consumption through breakfast products
The facts
The implications
Cakes boasting superfoods can capitalise on interest in ‘positive nutrition’
The facts
The implications
Encouraging at-home personalisation can boost gifting
The Facts
The Implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
Small cakes lead
Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
Ageing population could stifle growth
Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
Figure 8: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
The future
Figure 9: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
Small cakes lead
Figure 10: UK value retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2013-15
Growth in large cakes in 2015
Celebration cakes are on the up
MARKET DRIVERS
Sugar concerns pose a challenge
Improving the health profile of cakes
Ageing population could stifle growth
Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Own-label continues to have the upper hand
Premier Foods dwarfs other manufacturers in branded cakes
Strong growth for Thorntons
Supermarkets extend premium ranges
Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
Adspend continues to rise in 2015
MARKET SHARE
Own-label continues to have the upper hand
Figure 11: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
Figure 12: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 13: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Premier Foods steady at the top
Innovation from McVitie’s has not translated into an uplift
Strong growth for Thorntons
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Supermarkets extend premium ranges
Figure 14: New product launches in the UK cake, pastries and sweet baked goods market, by private-label and branded, 2011-15*
Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
More large cakes are added to the Mr Kipling portfolio
Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
Inspiration from the cocktail category…
…and milkshakes
Growth in gluten-free
Limited L/N/R innovation
Manufacturers’ hands are tied when it comes to sugar
Low-fat options could be further explored
Oats boost health credentials
Cakes continue to attract brands from other categories
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend continues to rise in 2015
Figure 15: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2011-15
Premier leads spend, supporting its Mr Kipling and Cadbury Cakes brands
Figure 16: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by advertiser, 2011-15
Mondelēz focuses on the Barny brand
New TV advertising push for Soreen in 2016
Retailers step up investment, particularly at Christmas
Nielsen Media Research coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
 BRAND MAP
Figure 17: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2015
 KEY BRAND METRICS
Figure 18: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2015
Brand attitudes: Cadbury cakes are well-trusted, and win on perceptions of quality
Figure 19: Attitudes, by brand, December 2015
Brand personality: Soreen lacks excitement
Figure 20: Brand personality – macro image, December 2015
Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
Figure 21: Brand personality – micro image, December 2015
 BRAND ANALYSIS
Thorntons stands out on indulgence and specialness
Figure 22: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, December 2015
Cadbury Cakes delivers a fun factor, and elicits trust
Figure 23: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, December 2015
McVitie’s Cakes are accessible and have a family slant
Figure 24: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, December 2015
Mr Kipling seen to be traditional and family-orientated
Figure 25: User profile of Mr Kipling, December 2015
Soreen stands out on health grounds
Figure 26: User profile of Soreen, December 2015
The Fabulous Bakers
Figure 27: User profile of The Fabulous Bakers, December 2015
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
Snacking fuels usage of cakes
Scope to build on morning consumption
Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
A lack of cakes sold in single portions
Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
USAGE OF CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
Figure 28: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
ISB cakes are most commonly eaten
Cake bars and slices win in terms of frequency of usage
Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
Figure 29: Overall usage of cakes/cake bars in the last month, by type, by age group, December 2015
Figure 30: Usage of cakes/cake bars at least once a week, by type, by presence of children in household, December 2015
USAGE OCCASIONS
Snacking fuels usage of cakes…
…With mid-afternoon the most popular time
Figure 31: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
Figure 32: Usage occasions, by age group, December 2015
45% of women eat cake as a dessert
Scope to build on morning consumption
FACTORS DEEMED IMPORTANT WHEN BUYING A CAKE AS A GIFT
Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
Figure 33: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
Packaging can play an important role in aesthetics
Premium ingredients are key
Artisanal factors can create standout for gifting
INTEREST IN INNOVATION IN CAKES
Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
Natural sweeteners not a Limited option in cakes
Figure 34: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
Ancient grains have big potential in cakes
Raw ingredients can bolster health perceptions
More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
Sweet and savoury flavours are highly popular
Extreme flavours would also be a draw
Figure 35: Interest in flavour innovation in cakes, December 2015
Cocktail and botanical flavours can build sophistication
Cakes can play on mood-enhancement linked to herbal teas
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CAKES
Smaller formats push up usage frequency
A lack of cakes sold in single portions
Figure 36: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
The time is right to bring hybrid cakes to the retail sector
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Launch Activity and Innovation
Figure 37: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by selected claim, 2011-15
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Market segmentation
Figure 38: UK value retail sales of small cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2013-15
Figure 39: UK value retail sales of large cakes, by sub-segment, 2013-15
Best- and worst-case forecast
Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of cakes and cake bars
Forecast Methodology

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