What you need to know

Despite their inherently high sugar content, cakes have escaped being a casualty of the ongoing war on sugar. Growth reached its highest rate in 2015 since at least 2011 at 2.5%, seeing the value of the cake market reach £1,221 million. This is thanks to the widespread view that unhealthy treats are an acceptable part of a balanced diet, with moderation the key aspiration.

The value of the market is forecast to increase by 8% over 2015-20 to reach £1,313 million. Premiumisation, bolstered by the rise in real incomes, will be a key driver behind this value growth. Added value opportunities also come from healthier formulations, for example through the incorporation of superfoods, and from more exciting and unusual flavour NPD.

Products covered in this report

This report examines the UK retail market for cakes and cake bars. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes which are kept at ambient temperatures. Sales of cakes from in-store bakeries are only included where they carry a bar code.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes/cake bars/special occasion cakes and large cakes.

‘Small cakes and cake bars’ include wrapped individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, as well as seasonal and occasion cakes. These include cake bars, slices, pies, tarts and mini cakes. ‘Large cakes’ include wrapped cakes intended for sharing, Swiss roll, whole cakes, slabs and loaves. It includes malt loaves such as Soreen.

The report excludes unpackaged (unwrapped) products, frozen cakes/pastries, chilled desserts such as fruit sorbets and cheesecakes, cake mixes or baking ingredients and biscuits such as rusks and gingerbread. It also excludes sales via catering or foodservice establishments ie those sold in cafés, restaurants etc, however, references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.

Sweet goods/breads and doughnuts have not been included in the market size in this report (please see Mintel’s Bread and Baked Goods – UK, September 2015 report for these) but references are made to them where relevant.

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