Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
- Market drivers
- Consumer confidence
- Unemployment
- Millennials are the new core consumer
- The consumer
- Opportunities lie within breakfast beverages
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- Figure 2: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, October 2014
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- Figure 3: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, October 2014
- Price, quality, and convenience are the major attributes that drive breakfast visits
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- Figure 4: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, October 2014
- Hispanics are a core demographic in breakfast
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- Figure 5: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Can beverages become a viable driver of breakfast visits?
- The issues
- The implications
- Consumers are price-sensitive during breakfast
- The issues
- The implications
- Consumers want a little bit of everything in the morning
- The issues
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: The Nouveau Poor
- Trend: Help Me Help Myself
- Trend: Slow it all Down
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Segment overview
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, by venue, at current prices, 2009-19
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- Figure 10: Total US sales of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Full service restaurant segment performance
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- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Segment fan chart forecast
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- Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
- Segment performance – QSR/other eating places
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- Figure 14: Total US sales of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 15: Total US sales of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Segment fan chart forecast
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- Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 17: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2004-November 2014
- Unemployment
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- Figure 18: US unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-November 2014
- Chicken is the new bacon in breakfast
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- Figure 19: Consumer Price Index – Average price data: beef and chicken, January 2007-October 2014
- Hispanics are a huge opportunity for foodservice during morning meal
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- Figure 20: Total US population growth trends, by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
- Millennials are a consumer powerhouse
- Obesity rates
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- Figure 21: American adults, by weight category, as determined by Body Mass Index (BMI), 2008-14
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Retail food offers same attributes consumers seek at restaurants
- At-home coffee technology competes with foodservice
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Coffee menus are expanding to attract beverage-driven breakfast visits
- Chick-fil-A sources coffee from THRIVE
- Bruegger’s Bagels celebrates coffee
- Rotating breakfast menus fall in line with seasons
- Summer
- Fall
- Winter/holiday
- Starbucks is taking speed to a new level
- Breakfast offerings are changing menu norms
- Food trucks are expanding ethnic flavors to morning meals
- Taco John’s promotion for its meat and potato breakfast burrito
- Taco Bell’s successful breakfast launch
- Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks test alternative dairy
- Dunkin’ Donuts debuts Angus steak breakfast items
- Health and indulgence have customers battling the breakfast angel and devil on their shoulders
- Convenience stores are becoming known for breakfast
- 7-Eleven celebrates 50 years of fresh coffee
- Free breakfast tacos
Menu Analysis and Breakfast Sandwich Topping Desires
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- Top breakfast items by segment
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- Figure 22: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 23: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, quick service restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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- Figure 24: Top eight items on breakfast menus, by incidence, fast casual restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 25: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, full service restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Breakfast sandwiches – menued and desired ingredients
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- Figure 26: Top 25 breakfast sandwich ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Panelists are looking for new breads for their breakfast sandwiches
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- Figure 27: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
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- Figure 28: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- The most common cheeses on breakfast sandwiches are struggling
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- Figure 29: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
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- Figure 30: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by household income, October 2014
- Figure 31: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by region, October 2014
- Egg whites in breakfast sandwiches are on the rise
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- Figure 32: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
- Figure 33: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
- Traditional meats for breakfast sandwiches have declined
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- Figure 34: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
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- Figure 35: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- Vegetables and sauces could be where innovation lies in the product
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- Figure 36: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings, October 2014
- Omelettes
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- Figure 37: Omelette incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 38: Top 20 Omelette ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Pancakes and waffles
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- Figure 39: Pancake and waffle incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 40: Top 10 pancake and waffle ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Coffee
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- Figure 41: Coffee incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 42: Top 10 coffee types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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- Figure 43: Top five coffee preparation types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Consumer Data – Overview
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- Convenience and affordability are important when dining out for breakfast
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- Figure 44: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart, October 2014
- Opportunities lie among restaurant segments based on food or beverage drivers
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- Figure 45: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, October 2014
- Price and quality are top of mind at breakfast
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- Figure 46: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, October 2014
- While a number of consumers are seeking more beverage options in the morning, one quarter are satisfied with what is offered now
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- Figure 47: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Gender
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- Key points
- Women place higher importance on convenience and affordability
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- Figure 48: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by gender, October 2014
- Men are heavier users of restaurants for breakfast visits
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- Figure 49: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by gender, October 2014
- Women are more likely to prefer specialty coffees versus men
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- Figure 50: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, beverage only, by gender, October 2014
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- Figure 51: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by demographics, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Age
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- Key points
- Indulgence is very important to younger consumers, while speed matters for those in key workforce ages
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- Figure 52: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by age, October 2014
- Millennials and Generation X-aged consumers are bigger users of restaurants for breakfast
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- Figure 53: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by age, October 2014
- Consumers aged 55+ are influenced by quality, while Millennials are influenced by indulgent offerings
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- Figure 54: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by age, October 2014
- Consumers over 65 rank eggs, brewed coffee high; Millennials more interested in beverages
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- Figure 55: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by age, October 2014
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- Figure 56: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by age, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Race
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- Key points
- Blacks more likely to seek customization
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- Figure 57: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- Black and Asian consumers cross-utilize segments for breakfast
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- Figure 58: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- Blacks and Other races interested in more beverages for breakfast
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- Figure 59: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Hispanic/Non-Hispanic
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- Key points
- Breakfast is an important daypart for Hispanics
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- Figure 60: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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- Figure 61: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- Hispanics look for inviting ambience when dining out for breakfast
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- Figure 62: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
- Hispanics would also like to see more beverage variety on breakfast menus
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- Figure 63: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Consumer Data – By US Region
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- Key points
- The most important attribute during breakfast is affordability, regardless of region
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- Figure 64: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by region, October 2014
- Panelists in the Northeast are more likely to frequent coffeehouses for breakfast
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- Figure 65: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by region, October 2014
- Breakfast sandwiches are most popular in the South
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- Figure 66: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by region, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Income
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- Key points
- Consumers with household incomes less than $50K are more likely to rank affordability, indulgence, and customization as “very important”
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- Figure 67: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by household income, October 2014
- Households with incomes over $100K less likely to visit QSRs and c-stores for breakfast
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- Figure 68: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by household income, October 2014
- Price influences panelists with incomes less than $75K, while quality of coffee and cleanliness are top of mind for those with $100K+
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- Figure 69: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by household income, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Restaurant Segment
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- Key points
- Convenience and speed are more important to panelists who visited QSR segments; value is important at full service
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- Figure 70: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
- Panelists who visited c-stores for breakfast are looking for more beverage offerings
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- Figure 71: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
Consumer Data – By Main Reason for Breakfast Visit
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- Key points
- Food-driven breakfast visitors are more likely to say affordability and value are very important attributes to the dining experience
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- Figure 72: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by breakfast visitation by main reason, October 2014
- Beverage-driven breakfast visits are influenced by restaurants with quality coffee and a nice atmosphere
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- Figure 73: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by breakfast visitation by main reason, October 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Tables
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- Figure 74: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit – Row nets, October 2014
- Figure 75: Restaurant/Food outlet usage, October 2014
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- Figure 76: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by spend – Dining out plans in 2015, October 2014
- Figure 77: Breakfast menu items by menu section, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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- Figure 78: Breakfast sandwich incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 79: Juice incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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- Figure 80: Top 10 juice types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
- Figure 81: Tea incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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- Figure 82: Top 10 tea types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Gender
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- Figure 83: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by gender, October 2014
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- Figure 84: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by gender, October 2014
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- Figure 85: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, by gender, October 2014
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- Figure 86: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Age
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- Figure 87: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Race
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- Figure 88: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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- Figure 89: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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- Figure 90: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Hispanic/Non-Hispanic
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- Figure 91: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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- Figure 92: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By US Region
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- Figure 93: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by region, October 2014
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- Figure 94: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by region, October 2014
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- Figure 95: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Income
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- Figure 96: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, household income, October 2014
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- Figure 97: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by household income, October 2014
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- Figure 98: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by household income, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Restaurant Segment
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- Figure 99: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
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- Figure 100: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
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Appendix – Consumer Data – By Main Reason for Breakfast Visit
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- Figure 101: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
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Appendix – Trade Associations
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