Breakfast Restaurant Trends - US - January 2015

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Market drivers
Consumer confidence
Unemployment
Millennials are the new core consumer
The consumer
Opportunities lie within breakfast beverages
Figure 2: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, October 2014
Figure 3: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, October 2014
Price, quality, and convenience are the major attributes that drive breakfast visits
Figure 4: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, October 2014
Hispanics are a core demographic in breakfast
Figure 5: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Can beverages become a viable driver of breakfast visits?
The issues
The implications
Consumers are price-sensitive during breakfast
The issues
The implications
Consumers want a little bit of everything in the morning
The issues
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: The Nouveau Poor
Trend: Help Me Help Myself
Trend: Slow it all Down
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of market
Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Segment overview
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, by venue, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 10: Total US sales of breakfasts at restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
Full service restaurant segment performance
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Segment fan chart forecast
Figure 13: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at full service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment performance – QSR/other eating places
Figure 14: Total US sales of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 15: Total US sales of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Segment fan chart forecast
Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of breakfasts at QSR/other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Consumer confidence
Figure 17: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2004-November 2014
Unemployment
Figure 18: US unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-November 2014
Chicken is the new bacon in breakfast
Figure 19: Consumer Price Index – Average price data: beef and chicken, January 2007-October 2014
Hispanics are a huge opportunity for foodservice during morning meal
Figure 20: Total US population growth trends, by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Millennials are a consumer powerhouse
Obesity rates
Figure 21: American adults, by weight category, as determined by Body Mass Index (BMI), 2008-14
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Retail food offers same attributes consumers seek at restaurants
At-home coffee technology competes with foodservice
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview
Coffee menus are expanding to attract beverage-driven breakfast visits
Chick-fil-A sources coffee from THRIVE
Bruegger’s Bagels celebrates coffee
Rotating breakfast menus fall in line with seasons
Summer
Fall
Winter/holiday
Starbucks is taking speed to a new level
Breakfast offerings are changing menu norms
Food trucks are expanding ethnic flavors to morning meals
Taco John’s promotion for its meat and potato breakfast burrito
Taco Bell’s successful breakfast launch
Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks test alternative dairy
Dunkin’ Donuts debuts Angus steak breakfast items
Health and indulgence have customers battling the breakfast angel and devil on their shoulders
Convenience stores are becoming known for breakfast
7-Eleven celebrates 50 years of fresh coffee
Free breakfast tacos
MENU ANALYSIS AND BREAKFAST SANDWICH TOPPING DESIRES
Top breakfast items by segment
Figure 22: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 23: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, quick service restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 24: Top eight items on breakfast menus, by incidence, fast casual restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 25: Top 10 items on breakfast menus, by incidence, full service restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Breakfast sandwiches – menued and desired ingredients
Figure 26: Top 25 breakfast sandwich ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Panelists are looking for new breads for their breakfast sandwiches
Figure 27: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
Figure 28: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
The most common cheeses on breakfast sandwiches are struggling
Figure 29: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
Figure 30: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by household income, October 2014
Figure 31: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by region, October 2014
Egg whites in breakfast sandwiches are on the rise
Figure 32: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
Figure 33: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
Traditional meats for breakfast sandwiches have declined
Figure 34: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
Figure 35: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Vegetables and sauces could be where innovation lies in the product
Figure 36: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings, October 2014
Omelettes
Figure 37: Omelette incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 38: Top 20 Omelette ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Pancakes and waffles
Figure 39: Pancake and waffle incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 40: Top 10 pancake and waffle ingredients, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Coffee
Figure 41: Coffee incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 42: Top 10 coffee types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 43: Top five coffee preparation types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
CONSUMER DATA – OVERVIEW
Convenience and affordability are important when dining out for breakfast
Figure 44: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart, October 2014
Opportunities lie among restaurant segments based on food or beverage drivers
Figure 45: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, October 2014
Price and quality are top of mind at breakfast
Figure 46: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, October 2014
While a number of consumers are seeking more beverage options in the morning, one quarter are satisfied with what is offered now
Figure 47: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY GENDER
Key points
Women place higher importance on convenience and affordability
Figure 48: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by gender, October 2014
Men are heavier users of restaurants for breakfast visits
Figure 49: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by gender, October 2014
Women are more likely to prefer specialty coffees versus men
Figure 50: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, beverage only, by gender, October 2014
Figure 51: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by demographics, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY AGE
Key points
Indulgence is very important to younger consumers, while speed matters for those in key workforce ages
Figure 52: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by age, October 2014
Millennials and Generation X-aged consumers are bigger users of restaurants for breakfast
Figure 53: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by age, October 2014
Consumers aged 55+ are influenced by quality, while Millennials are influenced by indulgent offerings
Figure 54: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by age, October 2014
Consumers over 65 rank eggs, brewed coffee high; Millennials more interested in beverages
Figure 55: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by age, October 2014
Figure 56: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by age, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY RACE
Key points
Blacks more likely to seek customization
Figure 57: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Black and Asian consumers cross-utilize segments for breakfast
Figure 58: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Blacks and Other races interested in more beverages for breakfast
Figure 59: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY HISPANIC/NON-HISPANIC
Key points
Breakfast is an important daypart for Hispanics
Figure 60: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 61: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Hispanics look for inviting ambience when dining out for breakfast
Figure 62: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Hispanics would also like to see more beverage variety on breakfast menus
Figure 63: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY US REGION
Key points
The most important attribute during breakfast is affordability, regardless of region
Figure 64: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by region, October 2014
Panelists in the Northeast are more likely to frequent coffeehouses for breakfast
Figure 65: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by region, October 2014
Breakfast sandwiches are most popular in the South
Figure 66: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by region, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY INCOME
Key points
Consumers with household incomes less than $50K are more likely to rank affordability, indulgence, and customization as “very important”
Figure 67: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by household income, October 2014
Households with incomes over $100K less likely to visit QSRs and c-stores for breakfast
Figure 68: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit, by household income, October 2014
Price influences panelists with incomes less than $75K, while quality of coffee and cleanliness are top of mind for those with $100K+
Figure 69: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by household income, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY RESTAURANT SEGMENT
Key points
Convenience and speed are more important to panelists who visited QSR segments; value is important at full service
Figure 70: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
Panelists who visited c-stores for breakfast are looking for more beverage offerings
Figure 71: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY MAIN REASON FOR BREAKFAST VISIT
Key points
Food-driven breakfast visitors are more likely to say affordability and value are very important attributes to the dining experience
Figure 72: Consumer rankings of important attributes by restaurant daypart – Very important, by breakfast visitation by main reason, October 2014
Beverage-driven breakfast visits are influenced by restaurants with quality coffee and a nice atmosphere
Figure 73: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by breakfast visitation by main reason, October 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL TABLES
Figure 74: Main reason for restaurant breakfast visit – Row nets, October 2014
Figure 75: Restaurant/Food outlet usage, October 2014
Figure 76: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by spend – Dining out plans in 2015, October 2014
Figure 77: Breakfast menu items by menu section, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 78: Breakfast sandwich incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 79: Juice incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 80: Top 10 juice types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 81: Tea incidence by restaurant segment, Q3 2011-Q3 2014
Figure 82: Top 10 tea types, by incidence, total commercial restaurants Q3 2011-Q3 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY GENDER
Figure 83: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by gender, October 2014
Figure 84: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by gender, October 2014
Figure 85: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, by gender, October 2014
Figure 86: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by gender, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY AGE
Figure 87: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by age, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY RACE
Figure 88: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 89: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 90: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY HISPANIC/NON-HISPANIC
Figure 91: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 92: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY US REGION
Figure 93: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by region, October 2014
Figure 94: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by region, October 2014
Figure 95: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY INCOME
Figure 96: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Rank one, household income, October 2014
Figure 97: Desired breakfast sandwich fillings – Consumers’ total breakfast sandwich filling desires, by household income, October 2014
Figure 98: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by household income, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY RESTAURANT SEGMENT
Figure 99: Drivers to visit restaurants for breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
Figure 100: Top breakfast items ordered by consumers – Top three ranks, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER DATA – BY MAIN REASON FOR BREAKFAST VISIT
Figure 101: Consumer attitudes regarding restaurant beverages at breakfast, by breakfast visitation by restaurant segment, October 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS