Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
- Market factors
- Strong competition dents demand for cakes
- The popularity of home baking stifles sales of shop-bought cakes
- The growth in over-55s continues to hinder the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
- Own-label continues to dominate new launches
- No end to the rise in adspend in cakes
- The consumer
- Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
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- Figure 3: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
- Cakes are most commonly eaten as a treat
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- Figure 4: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
- Cakes stand out for being good for sharing and filling
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- Figure 5: Most common qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
- Figure 6: Other qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
- One in three stock up on promotions
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
- New flavours hold strong appeal
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Cake brands can encourage a wider range of usage occasions through marketing
- The facts
- The implications
- Exciting innovation is needed to help heighten consumer engagement with the category
- The facts
- The implications
- Opportunities for better-for-you cakes through sugar alternatives and healthier ingredients
- The facts
- The implications
Trend Application
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- Trend: Sense of the Intense
- Trend: Make it Mine
- Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Cakes and cake bars are losing out to other snack sectors
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- Figure 9: UK retail value sales performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2012-13
- The boom in home baking erodes cake sales
- Health concerns dampen demand for cakes
- The ageing population and growth in small households present challenges
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Own-label continues to dominate new launches
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- Figure 10: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, own-label versus branded, 2009-14
- Asda, Morrisons and Tesco take the lead in NPD in 2013
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- Figure 11: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2013
- Figure 12: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2009-14
- Cross-category inspiration
- Cadbury Mini Rolls take inspiration from the ice cream category
- Mondelēz moves into kids’ cakes with the Barny brand
- A jump in the prevalence of the ‘no additives/preservatives’ claim in 2013
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- Figure 13: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by claim, 2009-14
- Low levels of ‘better-for-you’ NPD…
- …although ‘diet’ products risk a backlash
- Supermarkets expand their gluten-free offering
- Seasonal events inspire NPD, with Halloween gaining traction
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Volume and value sales in decline
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- Figure 14: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value and volume, 2009-19
- The future
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- Figure 15: UK retail volume sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
- Figure 16: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
- Factors used in the forecast
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- A shift away from large cakes towards single-serve products
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- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
- Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
- Seasonal cakes suffer the biggest decline
Market Share
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- Key points
- Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
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- Figure 19: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
- Figure 20: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
- Losses for Premier Foods’ leading brands
- McVitie’s, Fabulous Bakin’ Boys are all in decline
- Soreen benefits from its healthier positioning and grows its share
Companies and Products
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- Figure 21: Selected leading companies and their brands in the cakes and cake bars market, 2013
- United Biscuits (UBUK)
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Premier Foods
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Samworth Brothers (McCambridge Group)
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- Brand communication and promotion
- Finsbury Food Group
- Background
- Product range and innovation
- The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
- Background
- Product range and innovation
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Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- No end to the rise in adspend in cakes
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- Figure 22: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in total cakes and cake bars market, 2010-14
- Morrisons and Aldi lead adspend
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- Figure 23: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in total cakes and cake bars market, by top 10 brands in 2013, 2010-14
- Mondelēz supports the launch of Barny range to see it become the top-spending brand
- Premier Foods cuts back on support for Mr Kipling brand
- A big push from McVitie’s in 2014
The Consumer – Types of Cakes/Cake Bars Purchased or Eaten
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- Key points
- Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
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- Figure 24: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
- Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
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- Figure 25: Consumers who have purchased any cakes/cake bars in the last six months, by presence of children and household size, April 2014
- Single-serve cakes hold strong appeal
- Half of adults have bought ISB cakes
The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Snacks/Desserts
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- Key points
- Cakes stand out for being good for sharing and filling
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- Figure 26: Most common qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 27: Other qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
- Convenience is central to the appeal of cake bars and wrapped slices
- Ice cream stands out for perception of exciting flavours
The Consumer – Reasons for Eating Cakes/Cake Bars
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- Key points
- Cakes are most commonly eaten as a treat
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- Figure 28: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
- Special occasions spur usage among 30% of adults
- Over-55s most inclined to have cake as a dessert and with a hot drink
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- Figure 29: Consumers who eat cakes/cake bars as an alternative to dessert and to accompany a hot drink, by age, April 2014
- Under-35s most likely to associate cake with a mood boost
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Cakes/Cake Bars
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- Key points
- One in three stock up on promotions
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- Figure 30: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
- Notable demand for new formats among under-45s
- Baking shows can provide NPD inspiration
- Sizeable pool of interest in sugar alternatives
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Key points
- New flavours hold strong appeal
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
- A third of parents see cakes as a suitable snack for children
- Added-value opportunities
- A barrier to overcome for vegetable cakes
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK volume sales of cakes and cake bars, 2014-19
- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2014-19
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Appendix – The Consumer – Types of Cakes/Cake Bars Purchased or Eaten
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- Figure 34: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
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- Figure 35: Most popular types of cakes/cake eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 36: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 37: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 38: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 39: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 40: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Reasons for Eating Cakes/Cake Bars
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- Figure 41: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
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- Figure 42: Most popular reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 43: Next most popular reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Snacks/Desserts
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- Figure 44: Words associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
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- Figure 45: Most popular words associated with cakes, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 46: Next most popular words associated with cakes, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 47: Most popular words associated with cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 48: Next most popular words associated with cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 49: Most popular words associated with sweet biscuits, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 50: Next most popular words associated with sweet biscuits, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 51: Most popular words associated with chocolate bars, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 52: Next most popular words associated with chocolate bars, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 53: Most popular words associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 54: Next most popular words associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Cakes/Cake Bars
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- Figure 55: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
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- Figure 56: Most popular attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 57: Next most popular attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Figure 58: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
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- Figure 59: Most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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- Figure 60: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
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