The cakes/cake bars market is failing to keep pace with rival sweet snack categories, with many operators relying on low price points to buoy volume sales. This has eroded the value of the market; while volume sales edged up by 2% over 2009-13, this translated into a 3% decline in value terms.

This is likely to reflect the fact that cakes do not excel in any one area related to snacking. Chocolate, for example, is most likely to be perceived as indulgent and moreish, ice cream is most associated with exciting flavours and cereal bars have strong health connotations. The cakes and cake bars market also struggles to compete with other sectors in terms of its marketing activity, which largely reflects the strong presence of own-label in the market, capturing half of sales.

Innovative NPD is lacking in the cakes/cake bars market, with scope for manufacturers to look to more unusual flavours or new formats – for example the hybrid cake concept popularised in the foodservice industry – to inject more excitement into this category. The consumer data for this report suggests that such NPD should resonate.

Like other HFSS food sectors, health concerns remain a barrier for the cake market, however, NPD in better-for-you options remains limited, particularly in terms of sugar content. This opens up opportunities given that one in four users would be interested in trying cakes/cake bars with sugar replacements. Here, naturally sourced sugar replacements such as stevia are likely to resonate, given many consumers’ concerns regarding the artificial ingredients in diet products.

This report examines the UK retail market for cakes and cake bars. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes which are kept at ambient temperatures. Sales in store bakeries which are bar coded are included.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes/cake bars/special-occasion cakes and large cakes.

‘Small cakes and cake bars’ include wrapped individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, and seasonal/occasion cakes. These include cake bars, slices, pies, tarts and mini cakes.

‘Large cakes’ include wrapped cakes intended for sharing such as birthday cakes, Swiss roll, whole cakes, slabs and loaves. It includes malt loaves such as Soreen.

The report excludes unpackaged (unwrapped) products, frozen cakes/pastries, chilled desserts such as fruit sorbets and cheesecakes, cake mixes or baking ingredients and biscuits such as rusks and gingerbread. It also excludes sales via catering or foodservice establishments ie those sold in cafés, restaurants etc, however, references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.

Sweet goods/breads and doughnuts have not been included in the market sizing in this report (please see Mintel’s Bread and Baked Goods – UK, September 2013 report for these) but references are made to them where relevant.

Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) unless stated otherwise. Market sizes at constant 2014 prices are devised using Mintel’s food deflator.

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