Sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery through all channels is estimated to reach some $3.3 billion in 2005. Looking at 2004 sales, which include verified sales for all holiday products, the market stood at $3.4 billion. Between 1999 and 2004, sales of seasonal chocolate increased 1.4% at current prices, which reflects a decline of 10.5% at constant 2004 prices. To put seasonal chocolate confectionery sales into a wider context, Mintel estimates the total chocolate confectionery market (seasonal and non-seasonal) at $15.1 billion in 2004. The overall chocolate market increased 7.6% between 1999 and 2004, but at constant 2004 prices this represents a 5% decline from 1999-2004.

A number of factors have contributed to the decline in seasonal chocolate sales. This report focuses solely on confectionery products that can be assigned to a specific holiday, but some marketers are blurring seasonal lines by making products that can be used for more than one holiday. For example, Hershey’s Kisses leverages a number of fourth-quarter holidays by selling bags of red, gold, brown, and orange-wrapped chocolates. By not specifying a “holiday” on the wrapping, the product can be sold as a Halloween, Thanksgiving, Fall Football, or Back to School. The same is true for M&Ms, which are sold in “seasonal colors” that can be given for a number of holidays.

The market is also experiencing “channel blurring,” which makes it possible to purchase seasonal chocolate (and indeed chocolate for any occasion) through myriad channels from the highest quality chocolatier to the dollar store.

Only chocolate that is strictly positioned as “seasonal” through packaging, promotion, formula, or other indicator, is included in this report. This means, for example, that sales of yellow, red, and orange M&Ms with Halloween-themed overwrap are included, while sales of the same yellow, red, and orange M&Ms with no specific holiday designation on the packaging are not included.

Not included are “generic gift box” chocolates that could be sold at any season (e.g. Whitman’s Sampler) or other chocolate confections that could be given as a substitute for seasonal chocolate (e.g. regular Hershey’s chocolate given as Halloween treats).