US Winter Holiday Shopping Market Report 2023
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Description
Stay ahead of the curve and secure future growth for your business with Mintel’s US Winter Holiday Shopping Market Report 2023. Our full report is packed with consumer-led market intelligence, the latest trends and consumer behaviours affecting your industry. Get a 360° view of the winter holiday retail industry including market size, share and forecasted growth.
Below, we’ve handpicked the key insights analysed in the full report and summarised the core topics.
Key Issues Covered in this Report
- The impact of inflation and other market factors on consumer behavior and winter holiday shopping.
- How, where and when consumers plan to shop this winter holiday season.
- The evolving role of ecommerce and omnichannel shopping during the winter holiday season.
- Potential purchases of gifts and holiday celebrations.
- How retailers can help consumers prepare for the holidays before and during the season.
US Winter Holiday Shopping – Current landscape
US retail sales for the winter holiday season are predicted to reach $1.07 trillion in 2023, up 5.4% from the prior year. Consumers continue to prioritise holiday spending, however consumer caution is likely to continue amid economic pressures, driving a continued focus on deals and discounts.
- US winter holiday shopping market size: Total US retail sales reached the trillion dollar mark in 2022, increasing to $1,019.5 trillion.
US Winter Holiday Shopping – What’s next for the market?
Consumers have been resilient through years of disrupted holidays, but fatigue is starting to show. Consumers are eager for ways to escape their stress and focus more on the moments that matter. Retailers and brands that leverage nostalgia and promote the warmth of the season will resonate with weary shoppers in need of a holiday pick-me-up.
To learn more about the US winter holiday shopping market, including an analysis of consumer behavior and recommendations for market opportunities, purchase our full market research report.
More About this Report
This Report’s focus is on Winter holidays (eg Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa), as these represent the bulk of total holiday expenditures. For the purposes of this Report, “holiday shopping” refers to the expected consumer expenditures on holiday-specific items such as gifts, decorations, seasonal candy and other food, greeting cards and other expenditures.
Expert Analysis from a Retail Specialist
This report, written by Brittany Steiger, a leading retail and ecommerce analyst, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the US winter holiday shopping market and add expert context to the numbers.
A budget-focused mindset will again dominate in 2023 as consumers rebound from economic pressures. Savvy shoppers will shift more effortlessly across channels and formats to seek the best deals and get their shopping done as efficiently and affordably as possible. There is light at the end of the tunnel after years of disruption, but consumers may need a little help to recapture the holiday spirit.
Brittany Steiger
Senior Analyst – Retail & eCommerce
Table of Contents
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Overview
- What you need to know
- This Report looks at the following areas
- Definition
- Market context
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Executive Summary
- Top Takeaways
- Consumer trends
- Winter holiday shopping is an omnichannel experience
- Figure 1: Winter holiday shopping method, 2023
- Inflation may be moderating, but budget-conscious behaviors are sticking around
- Figure 2: Impact of inflation on winter holiday purchases, by household financial situation, 2023
- Discount retailers provide much-needed savings
- Figure 3: Likely retailers to be shopped, value-based retailers, by generation, 2023
- Competitive strategies
- Big three retailers embraced a revised holiday calendar
- Figure 4: Amazon, Target, Walmart reinvented the holiday promotional calendar
- PacSun launches shoppable holiday metaverse to connect with Gen Z
- Figure 5: PacSun launches PacVerse
- Market predictions
- Figure 6: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 8: Winter holiday outlook, 2023-28
- Opportunities
- Personalize deals for a more individualized experience
- Leverage new tech to enable exploration and discovery
- Figure 9: Klarna and Instacart launch ChatGPT plugins
- Take a supportive tone to help consumers mitigate stress and embrace celebration
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Market Perspective
- Another disrupted season in 2022; cautious optimism ahead
- What happened in 2022
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- Figure 10: The National Retail Federation reports on the 2022 winter holiday season
- What to expect in 2023
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Market Size and Forecast
- Impressive turnout despite record inflation; cautious optimism ahead
- What to expect in 2023
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2013-23
- Consumer mindset: Intentional Spending
- Figure 13: Intent to spend more, 2022 behavior versus 2023 expectation, by household income, 2023
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Market Drivers
- Inflation moderates, but consumers are still feeling financial pressures
- What it means for the 2023 holiday season
- Figure 14: Consumer Price Index change from previous year, 2021-23
- Supreme Court pulls the plug on student loan forgiveness… just in time for the holidays
- What it means for the 2023 holiday season:
- Figure 15: Retail Dive covers retail impact of student loan policy change
- Hyper Fatigue: a potential threat to the consumer mindset
- What it means for the 2023 holiday season:
- Figure 16: Shopping plug-in Honey helps consumers cut down on holiday stress
- Evolving technology presents new opportunities
- Figure 17: Retail Brew breaks down benefits of evolving retail tech
- What it means for the 2023 holiday season:
- Consumers adopt sustainable behaviors amid threat of climate change
- What it means for the 2023 holiday season
- Figure 18: Attitudes and behaviors toward winter holiday shopping – Sustainability, by generation, 2023
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Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities
- Competitive Strategies: a look back at 2022
- Big three retailers embraced a revised holiday calendar
- Figure 19: Amazon, Target, Walmart reinvented the holiday promotional calendar
- Ulta Beauty meets consumers where they are
- Figure 20: Ulta promotes multiple ways to shop in-app
- PacSun launches shoppable metaverse PacVerse to connect with Gen Z
- Figure 21: PacSun launches PacVerse
- Market Opportunities: looking ahead to the 2023 season
- Personalize deals for a more individualized experience
- Leverage new tech to enable exploration and discovery
- Figure 22: Klarna and Instacart launch ChatGPT plugins
- Take a supportive tone to help consumers mitigate stress and embrace celebration
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The Winter Holiday Consumer – Fast Facts
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Holiday Shopping Participation
- Consumers prioritize gifting holidays, but show signs of fatigue
- Figure 23: Winter holiday shopping participation, 2022 versus planned participation in 2023, 2023
- Holiday gatherings still to rebound from pandemic pause
- Figure 24: Intent to shop for winter holidays in 2023, by age, 2023
- In their own words: consumers share their experiences with the holiday season
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- Figure 25: Kroger’s “The Magical Cookbook” inspires consumers to gather and celebrate
- Alternatives to traditional holidays are an area of opportunity
- Young consumers are an ideal market for secondary holidays
- Figure 26: Alo Yoga promotes Singles Day sale
- Lunar New Year becomes more widely celebrated in the US
- Figure 27: Barbie, Target recognize Lunar New Year
- Consumers prioritize gifting holidays, but show signs of fatigue
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Holiday Purchases
- What happened in 2022: consumers felt the impact of inflation
- Purchase volumes decline versus 2021, but top categories remain consistent
- Figure 28: Items purchased during the 2022 winter holiday season, 2023
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- Figure 29: Items purchased for the winter holidays in 2022 versus previous years, 2019-22
- Consumers shift gifting strategy amid intentional spending
- Figure 30: Impact of inflation on winter holiday purchases, by household financial situation, 2023
- Parents continue to prioritize their kids
- Figure 31: Target debuts exclusive partnership with FAO Schwarz
- What to expect in 2023
- Gifts get more personal
- Figure 32: Items purchased for winter holidays in 2022, by generation, 2023
- Experiential gifts are back on the table
- Figure 33: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – experiential gifts, by gender and age, 2023
- Figure 34: Uncommon Goods offers experiences
- Not all gifts will be new
- Figure 35: Attitudes toward pre-owned gifts, by age and household income, 2023
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- Figure 36: REI promotes secondhand gifting
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How Consumers Plan to Shop
- Consumers embrace omnichannel convenience
- Figure 37: Likely shopping method, 2023
- Multichannel shopping extends across age groups
- Value is the primary driver behind ecommerce growth
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- Figure 38: Attitudes toward shopping method, 2023
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- Figure 39: Gopuff; Affirm add value to online shopping
- Consumers split on experience; in-store experiential an opportunity
- Consumers embrace omnichannel convenience
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Where Consumers Plan to Shop
- Shopping choices are varied, but one-stop shops continue to dominate
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- Figure 40: Likely stores to be shopped during the upcoming 2023 winter holiday season, 2023
- Amazon owns ecommerce; mass merchandisers deliver on brick-and-mortar
- Value-based stores gain share amid inflation
- Figure 41: Likely retailers to be shopped, value-based retailers, by generation, 2023
- Dollar stores are having a moment
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- Figure 42: Dollar Tree, Temu expand low-price retail options
- Circular shopping gains traction
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- Figure 43: Poshmark launches “Secondhand Sunday”
- Malls may make a holiday comeback
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- Figure 44: Plans to visit a shopping mall during the upcoming season, by age and household income, 2023
- Pop-up shops are a growing trend
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- Figure 45: Rakuten hosts holiday pop-up event
- Consumers will look to shop local, support more causes in 2023
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- Figure 46: Shopping behaviors – Conscious consumerism, 2022-23
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Shopping Timeframe
- Consumers expect to shop early and save
- Figure 47: Anticipated shopping timeframe, 2023
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward shopping timeframe, 2023
- Big sales events influence the holiday shopping calendar
- Deal-seeking mentality a boost to peak week events
- Budget-conscious shoppers more likely to pace spending
- Figure 49: Behaviors and attitudes toward holiday sales events, by household income, 2023
- Late season shoppers lean on physical stores
- Figure 50: Attitudes toward shopping method, by shopping timeframe, 2023
- Consumers expect to shop early and save
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Shopping Behaviors
- A look back at 2022: inflation-disrupted shopping habits, but impact is uneven
- Figure 51: Impact of inflation on winter holiday shopping, by household financial situation, 2023
- In their own words: consumers deal with inflation
- Consumers treat themselves to holiday deals
- Figure 52: Winter holiday shopping behaviors – Self-gifting, by gender and age, 2022-23
- What to expect in 2023
- In-store shopping gets more social, experiential
- Figure 53: In-store winter holiday shopping behaviors, by age, 2023
- Consumers will expect a seamless, omnichannel shopping experience
- Online shopping enables speed, efficiency and value
- Figure 54: Online winter holiday shopping behaviors, by age, 2023
- Figure 55: Walmart TrendGetter visual search tool
- Young consumers embrace new shopping options
- Figure 56: Fenty Beauty promotes Cyber Week on Instagram Live
- A look back at 2022: inflation-disrupted shopping habits, but impact is uneven
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Attitudes toward Winter Holiday Shopping
- Financial pressures add stress to the season
- Figure 57: Consumer attitudes toward winter holiday spending, by household financial situation, 2023
- Consumers are eager for connection
- Figure 58: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – Events and experiences, by generation, 2023
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- Figure 59: CALPAK highlights togetherness to promote travel accessories
- Improving the customer experience
- Speed and efficiency are key during the busy season
- Figure 60: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping, 2023
- Holiday returns can be a pain point for shoppers (and retailers)
- Financial pressures add stress to the season
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Winter Holiday Shopping Influences
- Consumers consult a wide range of resources to plan holiday purchases
- Figure 61: Winter holiday shopping influences, 2023
- Personal recommendations top the list
- Opportunity: wish lists and gift guides enable personalized recommendations
- Figure 62: Elfster launches new price drop notification feature
- Promotions and sales events rise in importance amid inflation
- Opportunity: amplify deals to drive up the value proposition
- Media influence wide-ranging and varied
- Figure 63: Winter holiday influences – Media, by generation, 2023
- Opportunity: leverage social commerce to reach digital natives
- Figure 64: Attitudes toward winter holiday shopping – Digital and social media, by generation, 2023
- Social platforms continue to evolve
- Figure 65: Social media platforms used, by generation
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- Figure 66: American Eagle takes a casual tone on Threads
- Consumers consult a wide range of resources to plan holiday purchases
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2013-23
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- Figure 69: Consumer sentiment index, 2007-23
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 70: Items purchased for the winter holidays in 2022, by parental status and gender, 2023
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- Figure 71: In-store shopping versus online shopping by retailer – In-store preference, 2023
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- Figure 72: Most influential social media platforms, by generation
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About the report
This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.
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*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.
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