Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on books
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- Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on books and e-books, prepared 2 November 2020
- The Market
- Increased appetite for reading books to limit impact of bookstore closures on print sales
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- Figure 2: UK publishers UK sales of consumer print books, (net invoiced value), 2015-25
- Surge in sales of digital books in 2020
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- Figure 3: UK publishers UK sales of consumer digital books (net invoiced value), 2015-25
- Key Players
- Bookshop.org launches in UK to combat Amazon’s dominance
- Bloomsbury paints a very positive picture as publisher reports best six months in years
- The Consumer
- Many book buyers have increased the number of books they have bought since the outbreak of COVID-19
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- Figure 4: Impact of COVID-19 on book purchasing, 16-26 July 2020
- In July nearly half of people had been to a bookstore or expected to go to one soon
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- Figure 5: Bookstore visiting following COVID-19 outbreak, 16-26 July 2020
- High levels of concern about the safety of bookstores
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- Figure 6: Concerns about COVID-19 and bookstores, 16-26 July 2020
- 2020 sees slight growth in number of people buying books
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- Figure 7: Book buying habits, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- More people read/listened to a book in 2020 than 2019
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- Figure 8: Devices used for e-books and audiobooks, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- More audiobooks are being listened to via a subscription service
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- Figure 9: E-book paid-for subscriptions, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- Figure 10: Audiobook paid-for subscriptions, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- Some may not yet know if they enjoy listening to books
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- Figure 11: Barriers to purchasing books, 16-26 July 2020
- Need for distraction is most common reason for reading books in the previous 12 months
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- Figure 12: Reasons for reading books, 16-26 July 2020
- Book readers consider reading books to be more beneficial than watching content
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- Figure 13: Attitudes towards reading books, 16-26 July 2020
Issues and Insights
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- Taking on Amazon as the pandemic boosts the retailer’s dominance of the book market
- Trust in people’s enduring appreciation of print books and bookstores
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- High digital sales limit impact of bookstore closures
- Amazon’s dominance of book market boosted by outbreak
- Print and digital book sales were strong in 2019 despite weakness in fiction sales
Market Size and Forecast
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- Impact of bookstore closures offset by strong digital sales
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- Figure 14: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on books and e-books, prepared 2 November 2020
- Increased appetite for reading books to limit impact of bookstore closures on print sales
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- Figure 15: UK publishers UK sales of consumer print books, (net invoiced value), 2015-25
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- Figure 16: UK publishers UK sales of consumer print books, (net invoiced value), 2015-25
- Surge in sales of digital books in 2020
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- Figure 17: UK publishers UK sales of consumer digital books (net invoiced value), 2015-25
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- Figure 18: UK publishers UK sales of consumer digital books (net invoiced value), 2015-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 19: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24 (prepared on 20 October 2020)
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 20: UK total consumer market for print books, 2005-10
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Children’s print books see greatest growth in 2019
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- Figure 21: UK publishers UK sales of consumer print books, by category (net invoiced value), 2015-19
- Sales of non-fiction digital books grow 15% in 2019
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- Figure 22: UK publishers UK sales of consumer digital books, by category (net invoiced value), 2015-19
- Fiction to have a stronger showing in 2020
- Audiobooks saw 41% growth in 2019
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- Figure 23: UK publishers sales of digital consumer books (UK and export), by format (net invoiced value), 2014-19
Market Drivers
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- Timeline of COVID-19’s impact on the books market
- Lockdown closes bookstores
- Bookstore re-opening causes surge in demand and congested calendar
- New lockdown creates uncertainty heading towards Christmas period
- COVID-19’s impact on media behaviour
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- Figure 24: Impact of COVID-19 on time spent doing media activities, 2-14 July 2020
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- Figure 25: Impact of COVID-19 on amount spent on media content, 2-14 July 2020
- Amazon will have grown print book market share since outbreak
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- Figure 26: Where people buy print books, April 2018
- Independent bookshops hit hard by pandemic after years of growth
- Emergency funding provided by major players, the government and consumers
- UK government removes VAT on e-books early
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Bookstores struggle due to lockdowns and reduced footfall
- Major publishers report better than expected financial results
- Utilising virtual events to keep connection with customers
Company Activity
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- Waterstones’ profits grow in 2019
- Resilient during the pandemic so far
- Blackwell’s reports a third year of growth in 2019
- More fiction books in Amazon’s top 20
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- Figure 27: Best sellers in books on Amazon.co.uk, 2019 and 2020
- BLM movement encourages purchase of more anti-racist books
- More new releases in Audible’s top-seller list
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- Figure 28: Top-20 audible.co.uk best sellers in 2020 (until 23 October 2020)
- Major publishers navigate COVID-19 challenge
- Bloomsbury paints a positive picture with its best six months in years
- Bloomsbury’s success is not representative of all publishers
- Hachette UK revenue falls 3% in first half of 2020
- HarperCollins global revenue declines 3% in Q2 2020
- Simon & Schuster’s global revenue falls 8% in Q2 2020
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Bookshop.org launches in UK to combat Amazon’s dominance
- Embracing virtual events
- Hachette introduces new development programme for BAME authors
- Audible introduces new unlimited subscription option to US
- Apple Book partners with Oprah for cross-service promotion
- Providers offer free books at the beginning of lockdown
- Associated Newspapers launches Mail Bookshop
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Overall adspend on books set to go down in 2020
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- Figure 29: Above-the-line and online display advertising expenditure on books, 2019 and 2020 (up to 9 November)
- Figure 30: Top 10 advertisers in the books market, 2016-20
- Shift in adpsend from outdoor to digital in 2020
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- Figure 31: Above-the-line and online display advertising expenditure on books, by media types. 2019 and 2020 (up to 9 November)
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- The COVID-19 outbreak has increased people’s appetite for books
- People read books for a distraction and for self-improvement
- Many think it is better to choose a retailer other than Amazon
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour
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- Many book buyers have bought more since the outbreak of COVID-19
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- Figure 32: Impact of COVID-19 on book purchasing, 16-26 July 2020
- In July nearly half of people had been to a bookstore or expected to go to one soon
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- Figure 33: Bookstore visiting following COVID-19 outbreak, 16-26 July 2020
- High levels of concern about the safety of bookstores
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- Figure 34: Concerns about COVID-19 and bookstores, 16-26 July 2020
- Using virtual elements to keep buyers connected and comfortable
Book Buying Habits
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- 2020 sees slight growth in number of people buying books
- More people explore digital books due to the pandemic
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- Figure 35: Book buying habits, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
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- Figure 36: Book buying habits, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- Purchasing of paperback fiction grows four percentage points from 2019
- Book sales even higher following autumn releases
Reading Habits and Devices Used
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- More people read/listened to a book in 2020 than 2019
- Growth in use of smartphones for reading/listening to books
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- Figure 37: Devices used for e-books and audiobooks, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- Four in 10 e-book readers have read one as part of a subscription
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- Figure 38: E-book paid-for subscriptions, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
- More audiobooks are being listened to via a subscription service
- More music subscriptions including audiobooks, broadening ways people can listen
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- Figure 39: Audiobook paid-for subscriptions, April 2018, May 2019 and 16-26 July 2020
Barriers to Purchasing Books
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- Audiobooks could have more chance of attracting non-readers
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- Figure 40: Barriers to purchasing books, 16-26 July 2020
- Publishers should broaden the range of influencers they use to target 16-24s
- Time-pressed parents the ideal targets for audiobooks
- Getting people to go through their unread books
Reasons for Reading Books
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- Need for distraction is most common reason for reading books in the last 12 months
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- Figure 41: Reasons for reading books, 16-26 July 2020
- People looking to books to stay better informed in an era of misinformation
- Specific books are not the main inspiration for most people
- E-books can be the ideal boredom-induced impulse purchase
Attitudes towards Books
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- Now is the time to highlight the benefits of books over other forms of content consumption
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards reading books, 16-26 July 2020
- Four in 10 think it is better to choose alternatives to Amazon for buying books
- Convenience is often the deciding factor when purchasing
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- Figure 43: Book retailer preference, by generation, 16-26 July 2020
- COVID-19 will heighten cost concerns
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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