As of July 2020, 29% of print book buyers had bought more print books after the outbreak of COVID-19 than they would have if the outbreak had not occurred, while only 13% had bought fewer. This highlights the resilience of the print market, even when facing the closure of bookstores.

The main impact of COVID-19 on the UK books market has been the closure of bookstores pushing sales online, further boosting the role of Amazon. It has also increased the appetite for books across formats and genres, with people looking for escapism, and to educate and inform themselves while they have more time on their hands.

While indications from the major publishers are that they are navigating the pandemic better than may have been anticipated, bookstores, particularly independent bookstores, have been hit hard by the outbreak. With much of the country placed under a second lockdown, bookstores are facing a very difficult and uncertain future, making the launch of bookshop.org, an online retail platform for independent bookstores, a potentially very important development.

The outbreak may help reinvigorate the UK e-book market, which has been fairly stagnant for many years. It will also further boost audiobooks, a format that has been growing significantly in popularity year-on-year, creating a good environment for the introduction of more subscription audiobook options.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the books and e-books market

• Forecast for the UK publisher sales of consumer print books and digital books

• Trends in book buying and reading habits

• The main reasons people have not bought a book in the last year

• The main reasons why people have read books in the last year

• Consumer attitudes towards books

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

If case numbers remain high, it can be expected that the lockdown will be extended in England, but even if the second national lockdown does end as planned on 2 December, the current plan is to return to the regional tiered approach that was in force before the lockdown, meaning that large parts of the country may still effectively be locked down. 

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The Welsh and English lockdowns will inevitably have an impact on GDP and consumer finances, potentially shifting the UK closer to the OBR’s downside scenario. The market forecasts in this Report reflect this new reality.

From the start of the outbreak, we have made the assumption that an effective vaccine would not be widely available until well into 2021. On 9 November, Pfizer and BioNTech announced highly encouraging results from trials of their vaccine, followed by similarly positive results from Monderna. This means that a vaccination programme may be brought forward, but a full rollout will take many months, meaning that Mintel is still making the assumption that we will be living with COVID for some time to come.

This Report covers print and digital books (ie e-books and audiobooks) through all channels. E-books are all books readable on dedicated e-reader devices like the Amazon Kindle, or through smartphone or tablet applications or desktop/laptop browser extensions.

For the market size of print and digital books, Mintel uses data from the Publishers Association, which reports the invoiced value of UK publisher sales. For digital books, this includes e-books, audio downloads, online subscriptions and other digital book sales.