Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Stagnant rice sales should improve
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice, at current prices, 2012-22
- Inconsistent rice prices
- Brand names struggle
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- Figure 2: Sales of rice, by company, 52-weeks ending Dec 31, 2017
- The opportunities
- Enriching options
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- Figure 3: Added benefits, by age, February 2018
- Natural and real
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- Figure 4: Added benefits, by age, February 2018
- Leveraging fresh to resonate with Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 5: Important claims, Hispanic origin, February 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Stagnant rice sales should increase slightly in coming years
- Dry rice dominates market share
- Rice price to fluctuate
Market Size and Forecast
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- Stagnant rice sales forecast to improve
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of rice, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Steady growth to continue for rice segments
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast* of rice, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- After brief slowdown, dry rice sales should rebound
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at current prices, 2012-22
- Rice mix sales increase slowly
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Share of rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by subsegment, 2012-17
- Consumers turning to other channels for rice, though supermarket still account for majority of rice purchases
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of rice, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
Market Factors
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- Rice prices likely to rise in 2018, countered by production increase in 2019
- Organic appeals strongly to Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 13: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
- GMO rice approved even as consumers indicate avoidance
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- Figure 14: Opinions of genetically modified foods, by age and gender, July 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label showing strongest sales growth in rice
- Private label's gains come even as introductions slow
- Name-brand dry rice sales stumble
- Merging ease and health
Company and Brand Sales of Rice
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- Leading companies maintain dominance, private label shows strongest growth
- Sales of rice by company
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- Figure 15: Sales of rice, by company, in millions, 52-weeks ending Dec 31, 2017
What’s Working?
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- Private label success shows store-brands’ strength
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- Figure 16: Notable private label rice introductions, 2017
- Figure 17: Rice launches, branded versus private label, 2014-17
- Figure 18: Key attributes, Save-A-Lot Rice on the Side Chicken & Broccoli Flavored Rice, compared to segment benchmark, 2017
- Figure 19: Key attributes, Aldi Jambalaya Mix compared to segment benchmark, 2017
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- Figure 20: Key attributes, Wegmans Food You Feel Good About Special Blends Wild Rice Blend, compared to segment benchmark, 2017
- Grains as ingredients
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- Figure 21: Food products featuring quinoa, branded versus private label, 2013-17
- Figure 22: Specific launches featuring quinoa, 2017
- Figure 23: Key attributes, Aldi Chia Seeds & Quinoa Pita Chips, compared to segment benchmark, 2017
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- Figure 24: Key attributes, Brandless Quinoa Puffs, compared to segment benchmark, 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Nationally branded dry rice sales falter
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- Figure 25: Rice launches, 2017
What’s Next?
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- Enriched options resonate
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- Figure 26: Added benefits, by age, February 2018
- “Real” people
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- Figure 27: Added benefits, by age and Hispanic origin, February 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Nine in 10 consumers eat rice/grains
- Take it easy
- Avoiding modification
- Grains associated with health, rice with versatility
- Grain health benefits resonating with younger consumers
- Brands could leverage rice-cooking challenges
- Flavored options can draw from wide range of culinary interests
Consumption of Grains and Rice
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- Dry rice, oats most popular among consumers
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- Figure 28: Consumption, February 2018
- Rice most popular among older consumers, oats among younger demographics
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- Figure 29: Consumption, by age, February 2018
- Hispanic Millennials much more likely than other Hispanics to opt for grains or rice
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- Figure 30: Consumption, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Important Attributes in Rice/Grains
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- Ease-of-use widely appreciated
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- Figure 31: Important rice/grain attributes, February 2018
- Easy and microwavable options resonate most among younger consumers
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- Figure 32: Important rice/grain packaging attributes, by age, February 2018
- Ease-of-use most relevant to Hispanic non-Millennials
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- Figure 33: Important rice/grain packaging attributes, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Important Claims
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- Organic/natural resonate with a third of consumers under age 55
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- Figure 34: Important claims, by age, February 2018
- Organic/natural resonating strongly among parents of school-age children
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- Figure 35: Important claims, by presence and age of children in household, February 2018
- Organic, non-GMO claims resonate among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 36: Important claims, Hispanic origin, February 2018
Grain/Rice Attributes
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- Oats, rice seen as satiating, with quinoa linked to protein, fiber content
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- Figure 37: Correspondence analysis – Attributes, February 2018
- Women show greater appreciation for oats, quinoa, barley, chia
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- Figure 38: Attributes, by gender, February 2018
- Rice attributes resonate most among Hispanic non-Millennials
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- Figure 39: Rice attributes, by age, February 2018
Health Attitudes toward Grains/Rice
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- Generally positive health regard for grains/rice
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- Figure 40: Attitudes toward health in grains and rice, February 2018
- Rice/grain blends resonate more with younger consumers
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward health in grains and rice, any agree, by age, February 2018
- Health resonating with Hispanic Millennials in particular
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward health in grains and rice, any agree, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Preparing Grains/Rice
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- Rice brands resonating less among younger consumers
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward grain and rice preparation, any agree, by age, February 2018
- Rice preparation possibly intimidating younger consumers
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- Figure 44: Attitudes – CHAID – Tree output, February 2018
- Hispanic Millennials notably interested in meal-appropriate rice options
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward grain and rice preparation, any agree, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Flavor Possibilities
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- Notable interest in Chinese, Mexican flavor options
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- Figure 46: Flavor possibilities, February 2018
- Mexican flavors significantly popular among younger consumers
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- Figure 47: Flavor possibilities, by age, February 2018
- Hispanic Millennial interest in a diversity of flavors
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- Figure 48: Flavor possibilities, by Hispanic origin, February 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 49: Total US sales and forecast of rice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast* of rice, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales of rice, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of rice, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of grains and rice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 56: Multi-outlet sales of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 57: Multi-outlet sales of dry rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 58: Rice usage, by gender, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 59: Rice usage, by age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 60: Rice usage, by race, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 61: Rice usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 62: Rice usage, by household income, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 63: Rice usage, by education, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 64: Rice usage, by size of household, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 65: Rice usage, by parental status, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 66: Rice usage, by region, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 67: Rice usage, by gender and age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 68: Rice usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 69: Rice usage, 2013-17
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- Figure 70: Rice usage, by gender, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 71: Rice usage, by age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 72: Rice usage, by race, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 73: Rice usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 74: Rice usage, by household income, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 75: Rice usage, by education, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 76: Rice usage, by size of household, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 77: Rice usage, by parental status, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 78: Rice usage, by region, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 79: Rice usage, by gender and age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 80: Rice usage, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 81: Rice types used, 2013-17
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- Figure 82: Rice eaten, by gender, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 83: Rice eaten, by age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 84: Rice eaten, by race, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 85: Rice eaten, by Hispanic origin, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 86: Rice eaten, by household income, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 87: Rice eaten, by education, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 88: Rice eaten, by size of household, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 89: Rice eaten, by presence of children in household, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 90: Rice eaten, by region, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 91: Rice eaten, by gender and age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 92: Rice eaten, by Hispanic origin and age, October 2016-November 2017
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- Figure 93: Rice eaten, 2013-17
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Appendix – Correspondence Analysis – Grains and Rice – April 2018
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- Methodology
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- Figure 94: Attributes, February 2018
Appendix – CHAID Analysis – Grains and Rice – April 2018
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- Methodology
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- Figure 95: Attitudes – CHAID – Table output, February 2018
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