Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Canada today
- The people
- The economy
- The consumer
- Perception of financial health shows slight improvement
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- Figure 1: Perception of financial health, January/February 2015-17
- Debt reduction continues to be prioritized in 2017
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- Figure 2: How extra money is spent, January 2017
- Financial and economic concerns loom large for about a quarter of the population
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- Figure 3: Current financial concerns, January 2017
- Half of Canadians see themselves as ‘middle class’
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- Figure 4: Middle class values, January 2017
- Canadians are proud to be living in Canada
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards living in Canada, January 2017
- What it means
Canada Today – The People
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- What you need to know
- Canada’s population is growing due to immigration, increasing diversity
- Canada will become increasingly diverse
- Increased diversity means greater opportunities and considerations
- The population is geographically concentrated
- Geographical concentration means resources will be strained
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- Figure 6: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2016
- Canada is a low-fertility society
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- Figure 7: Total fertility rate, 1963-2013
- Women are having children later in life
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- Figure 8: Fertility rate, by age(per 1,000 women), 2001-11
- The family structure is changing
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- Figure 9: Distribution and percentage change of census families, by family structure, 2001-11
- Shift in family structure means families need more help
- Canada’s population is aging
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- Figure 10: Population aged 0 -14 and 65+, as of July 1, 1995-2035*
- Figure 11: Canadian population, by age, 2016
- Opportunities and challenges come with an aging population
Canada Today – The Economy
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- What you need to know
- 2016 was a year of ups and downs for the Canadian economy
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- Figure 12: Quarterly growth rates of real GDP, change over previous quarter, Q1 2011-Q4 2016
- The job market sees some recovery in 2016
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- Figure 13: Canada’s unemployment rate, December 2011-December 2016
- The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure
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- Figure 14: Historical Canadian/US currency rate comparisons, March 23, 2012- March 22-2017
- Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 0.5%
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- Figure 15: Canada bank rate, March 2012-March 2017
- Household debt levels in Canada
Expenditure Overview
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- What you need to know
- Total Canadian consumer expenditures in 2016
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- Figure 16: Total Canadian consumer expenditure, at current prices, 2016
- Outlook for the next five years
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- Figure 17: Total Canadian consumer expenditure and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2011-21
Category Review – In-home Food
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- In-home food expenditure softens as food prices drop
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- Figure 18: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on food (at home), at current prices, 2011-16
- Upward sales momentum forecast to continue
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- Figure 19: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the food (at home) market, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Premium products can help shield margins
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- Figure 20: President's Choice Black Label Cranberry& Fennel Artisan Crisps, December 2015 (Canada)
- Figure 21: President's Choice Black Label Crema di Burrata Soft Unripened Cheese, June 2016 (Canada)
- Looking abroad for innovation inspiration
- Snacking allows Canadians to eat what they want, when they want
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- Figure 22: Kellogg's Special K Nourish Cranberry & Almonds Chewy Bars (Canada, March 2016), Dark Chocolate Chunks & Almonds Chewy Bars (Canada, March 2016)
- What’s not working
- Challenges ahead for ‘conventional’ banners
- Perception of centre-of-store needs rehabilitation
- What’s next
- “What’s for dinner?” is the most important question companies can help answer
- Technology presents an opportunity for retailers to provide more customized consumer engagement
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- Figure 23: Introducing Amazon Go and the world’s most advanced shopping technology, December 2016
- Changing consumer spending habits
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- Figure 24: Perceived change in spend on food (at home) compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Alcoholic Beverages (at Home and On-Premise)
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Growth of alcoholic beverages at home outpaces in-home
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- Figure 25: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on alcoholic beverages (at home), at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 26: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on alcoholic beverages (out of home), at current prices, 2011-16
- Mintel forecasts in-home alcoholic beverage sales to outpace on-premise
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- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic beverages (out of home) market, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Craft beer brews success for the industry
- Cider growth expands market among women
- Wine growth supported by aging Boomer cohort
- Whisky is the top seller in Canada
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- Figure 29: Jack Daniel’s Watermelon Punch Whiskey Beverage, August 2015 (US)
- What’s not working
- Beer growth susceptible to demographic pressures
- What’s next
- Beer’s premiumization offers pairing opportunities
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- Figure 30: Alcoholic beverage global launches with the word “cheese” in the description, 2012-16
- Consumers looking beyond beer
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- Figure 31: Small Town Brewery Not Your Father’s variety Pack, November 2016 (US)
- Investing in artisan distilleries a way for larger brands to capitalize on thinking small with minimal investment
- Changing consumer spending habits
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- Figure 32: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic beverages (at home) compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
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- Figure 33: Perceived change in spend on alcoholic beverages (out of home) compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Non-alcoholic Beverages (at Home)
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Overall beverage market grows at a moderate pace
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- Figure 34: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on non-alcoholic beverages (at home), at current prices, 2011-16
- Mintel forecasts incremental growth in non-alcoholic drinks
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Coffee’s growth reflective of category innovation
- All-natural positioning resonates with Canadian juice consumers
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- Figure 36: Ceres 100% Guava and Litchi Juice (Canada), September 2016
- What’s not working
- Juice category challenged by concern around sugar
- Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand, representing a challenge for dairy milk
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- Figure 37: Share of launches of white milk, flavoured milk and plant-based drinks (dairy alternatives) in Canada and US, 2016 vs 2011
- What’s next
- Nitro coffee at the forefront of the “third wave”
- Cold-pressed juice represents an opportunity to meet demand for natural and healthful offerings
- Opportunity to leverage superfoods to boost functionality
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- Figure 38: Green Panda Superfood Chia Drink with Apple & Elder (Austria), November 2016
- Figure 39: Sambazon Acai Berry, Kale + Ginger Superfood Smoothie (US), July 2016
- Figure 40: Raw Pressery Lean Cold-pressed Spirulina, Kiwi, Kale, Cucumber, Green Apple and Mint Juice (India), January 2016
- Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
- Changing consumer spending habits
- More Canadians are spending less than more on non-alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 41: Perceived change in spend on non-alcoholic beverages (at home) compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Leisure Spending Categories
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Growth in spending on non-essentials will slow
- Non-essential spending has shown relatively stable growth since 2011
- Consumer expenditure forecast to slow moving towards 2021
- Financial concerns weigh on consumers, though occasional breaks will be sought
- What’s working
- Inclusivity in marketing speaks to more consumers
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- Figure 42: Tim Hortons True Stores TV Commercial, “Dad’s Place”, March 2016
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- Figure 43: Tim Hortons #TimsPerfectPairingsTV Commercial, February 2017
- Broadening the appeal of entertainment options is working to attract families
- What’s facing challenges
- Financial concerns and time constraints are no fun
- Dollar concerns and political climate may be impacting travel to the US
- What’s next
- Food halls appeal to consumers on multiple levels
- More off-priced retailers to come
- Bringing wellness to the forefront of leisure
- Changing consumer spending habits
- Dining out
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- Figure 44: Perceived change in spend on food – dining out compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Clothing, footwear and accessories
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- Figure 45: Perceived change in spend on clothing, footwear and accessories compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Vacations and tourism
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- Figure 46: Perceived change in spend on vacations and tourism compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Leisure and entertainment
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- Figure 47: Perceived change in spend on leisure and entertainment compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Health and Wellness Categories
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Consumer expenditure on wellness should remain steady
- Canadian spending on health and wellness has been moderate since 2011
- The forecasts for the sectors are predicted to slow
- What’s working
- Prevention is a key interest for both the young and the old
- The broad scope of mass merchandisers has wide appeal
- Beauty and personal care isn’t just for women
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- Figure 48: Dove Men+Care Elements Minerals+ Sage Scent (Canada, March 2017)
- Figure 49: Dove Men+Care Extra Fresh (Canada, March 2017)
- Figure 50: Dove Men+Care Thickening (Canada, March 2017)
- What’s facing challenges
- Pharmacies may be losing ground to mass merchandisers
- What’s next
- Grooming products for men become less niche
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- Figure 51: The Art of Shaving Peppermint Essential Oil (Canada, January 2017)
- Figure 52: Proraso Beard Balm (Canada, October 2016)
- Holistic approach includes interest in minding moods
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- Figure 53: Meet Jamieson Digestive Care Daily Fibre, April 2016
- Skincare with food ingredients will appeal as consumers gravitate towards ‘natural’
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- Figure 54: Kayo (US, November 2016)
- Figure 55: Andalou Naturals 1000 Roses Velvety Soft Body Butter (Canada, March 2016)
- Changing consumer spending habits
- Beauty and personal care
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- Figure 56: Perceived change in spend on beauty and personal care compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- OTC healthcare remedies
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- Figure 57: Perceived change in spend on OTC healthcare remedies compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Technology and Communications
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Growth to continue after stagnation in 2015
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- Figure 58: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on technology and communications, at current prices, 2011-16
- Moderate growth predicted to continue
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- Figure 59: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Interest in a number of television technologies is apparent
- Canadian consumers are using more data across more devices
- What’s not working
- Internet and smartphone data plans are viewed as too pricey
- Younger cohorts are cutting the cord
- What’s next
- Efficiency and practicality eclipse the importance of size
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- Figure 60: Sonos commercial 2016: You're Better Than This, August 2016
- Changing consumer spending habits
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- Figure 61: Perceived change in spend on technology and communications compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Transportation
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Expenditures on this sector have seen healthy growth
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- Figure 62: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on transportation, at current prices, 2011-16
- Positive future for the transportation sector
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- Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transportation market, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Strong sales for the Canadian auto industry
- What’s not working
- Vehicle recalls and scandals
- Changing consumer spending habits
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- Figure 64: Perceived change in spend on transportation compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Key consumer findings
Category Review – Personal Finance
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Personal finance expenditure forecast to grow strongly
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- Figure 65: Total Canadian consumer expenditure on financial services, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of personal financial services, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- Canadian banks react to the Fintech challenge
- What’s next
- Chatbots and banking customer service
- Robo-investment advisors
- Digital disruption in lending
- Key consumer findings
- Consumer confidence is middling at best
- Albertans are more optimistic about the local economy, while Quebecers are less so
- Inflation is a concern for many older Canadians
- Around a quarter of Canadians currently living from pay cheque to pay cheque
- On the positive front, a third of young Canadians have at least $1,000 saved for emergencies
- Young women are most stressed about their finances
- But among older women, this worry may be due to a lack of confidence
- Younger Canadians more likely to believe their generation is financially worse off
- Buying investments is a much higher priority for Chinese Canadians
Category Review – Housing
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- What you need to know
- What it means
- Housing expenditures have shown positive lift
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- Figure 67: Total Canadian consumer expenditures on housing, at current prices, 2011-16
- Housing sector to experience continued growth
- Rental vacancy rate slightly higher
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- Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of housing, at current prices, 2011-21
- What’s working
- BC government’s foreign home buyers tax: impact on Vancouver home prices
- What’s facing challenges
- Changes to Canada’s housing rules
- Ontario reconsidering foreign buyer tax to cool Toronto’s hot housing market
- Ontario increases tax refund for first-time home buyers
- What’s next
- Real estate sales activity in 2017 to mainly decline, according to the CREA
- Impact of new guidelines on the real estate market
- Key consumer findings
- Around half believe it is becoming difficult for younger adults to save to buy a home
- 18-24s most concerned about the housing market
- But real estate and housing market values are not national concerns
The Consumer – Changes in Perceived Financial Health and Spending
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- What you need to know
- Perceived financial health improves moving into 2017
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- Figure 69: Perception of financial health, January/February 2015-17
- Spending across categories remains relatively stable
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- Figure 70: Perceived changes in spending in 2016 compared to prior years, January 2017
- Shifts in groceries costs are noticed by consumers
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- Figure 71: Perceived changes in spending on in-home food in 2016 compared to prior years, January/February 2015-17
- Consumers remain conservative with extra funds, though there is a little wiggle room
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- Figure 72: How extra money is spent, January 2017
- Millennial women less likely to put extra dollars towards debt in 2017
- Chinese Canadians are prioritizing investments, eating out and long vacations
- An improved perception of financial wellbeing bodes well for retailers
- Multipurpose leisure/entertainment activities will be of interest
- Some will want their extra money to go further, particularly fathers
The Consumer – Financial Concerns and Outlook
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- What you need to know
- The state of the economy weighs on the minds of Canadians
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- Figure 73: Current financial concerns, January 2017
- Current financial situation limits ability to save – in their words
- Young women most likely to show concerns
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- Figure 74: Current financial concerns (very concerned), women 25-34 vs overall, January 2017
- For women 25-34, spending priorities will be informed by more immediate constraints
- Few Canadians are concerned about the impact of the US elections on the Canadian economy
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- Figure 75: Attitudes towards economic impact of 2016 US elections, January 2017
The Consumer – Middle Class Values
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- What you need to know
- Half of Canadians consider themselves to be middle class
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- Figure 76: Middle class values, January 2017
- What being ‘middle class’ means – in their words
- Younger consumers and lower-income Canadians are less likely to see themselves as middle class
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- Figure 77: Seeing self as ‘middle class’ and embodying ‘middle class’ values, by household income, January 2017
- Brands can tailor offerings to help decrease the perceived gap
- Giving back to the community a luxury not all can afford
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- Figure 78: Agreement with ‘I actively give back to my community’, by age and household income, January 2017
- Brands can help consumers increase contribution through purchases
The Consumer – Canadian Pride and Values
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- What you need to know
- Oh Canada! We are a proud nation
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- Figure 79: Attitudes towards living in Canada, January 2017
- Characteristics that make Canadians proud – in their words
- Marketers should benefit from aligning with Canadian values
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- Figure 80: The Views Are Different Here, March 2017
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- Figure 81: Global Beer Fridge (Extended), June 2015
- Canadian pride increases with age
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- Figure 82: Attitudes towards living in Canada, by age, January 2017
- ‘Made in Canada’ less of a draw for 18-34s
- Chinese Canadians are the least loyal to Canadian products
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- Figure 83: Attitudes towards living in Canada, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
- Quebecers are also less proud
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- Figure 84: Bell Fibe TV commercial – Switch to Fibe TV, February 2017
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- Figure 85: Publicité Bell Télé Fibe – Passez à Télé Fibe, February 2017
The Consumer – Perceiving Information Bubbles
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- What you need to know
- Canadians don’t feel trapped in information bubbles
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- Figure 86: Attitudes towards information bubbles, January 2017
- Reliability of news stories on social media is questionable – in their words
- Young Canadians feel they are influential on social media
- Despite lack of feeling trapped, disruption will matter for brands
The Consumer – Canadians vs Americans: How Extra Money is Spent
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- What you need to know
- Canadians are more inclined to prioritize debt reduction
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- Figure 87: How extra money is spent, Canada vs US, January 2017
- Dining out is an area of opportunity to connect with older Canadian consumers
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- Figure 88: Putting extra money towards ‘paying off debt’ and ‘dining out’, by age, Canada vs US, January 2017
- Horizons may be expanded by broadening occasions for Canadian Boomers
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 89: Total Canada sales and forecast of overall expenditures, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 90: Total Canada sales and forecast of food (at home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 91: Total Canada sales and forecast of food – Dining out market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 92: Total Canada sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 93: Total Canada sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (out of home) market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 94: Total Canada sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages (at home) market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 95: Total Canada sales and forecast of beauty and personal care market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 96: Total Canada sales and forecast of OTC healthcare remedies market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 97: Total Canada sales and forecast of household care market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 98: Total Canada sales and forecast of clothing, footwear and accessories market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 99: Total Canada sales and forecast of technology and communications market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 100: Total Canada sales and forecast of vacations and tourism market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 101: Total Canada sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 102: Total Canada sales and forecast of home and garden market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 103: Total Canada sales and forecast of transportation market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 104: Total Canada sales and forecast of financial services market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 105: Total Canada sales and forecast of housing market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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