Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Modest pace of growth continues
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
- Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
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- Figure 2: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
- Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
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- Figure 3: Health attributes associated with rice and grains, January 2016
- The opportunities
- Not just dinner: snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
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- Figure 4: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
- Younger adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward rice and grains, by age, January 2016
- Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
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- Figure 6: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Modest pace of growth continues
- Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
- Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
- Consumers cooking more frequently
Market Size and Forecast
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- Modest pace of growth continues
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
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- Figure 9: Share of rice and grains, by segment, 2013 and 2015
- Health perceptions and flavor exploration help drive dry rice sales
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at current prices, 2010-20
- Premium on convenience: Ready-to-serve rice outpaces mixes
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- Figure 11: Share of rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by subsegment, 2010-15
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, at current prices, 2010-20
- Solid growth in natural food channel
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Market Perspective
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- Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of pasta, by segment, 2010-15
- Grains/rice could be threatened by recent Pasta NPD
- Health and nutrition
- Taste and texture
Market Factors
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- Consumers cooking more, enjoying it more
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- Figure 15: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
- Core user groups growing
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- Figure 16: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-14
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- Figure 17: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
- Flavor variety and authenticity help smaller players
- Convenience drives sales for big brands
- Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
Manufacturer Sales of Rice and Grains
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- Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
- Private label a growing force in dry rice
- Ample opportunity for smaller players as well
- Manufacturer sales of rice andgrains
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- Figure 18: MULO sales of grains and rice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Flavor, variety, and authenticity
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- Figure 19: MULO sales of select specialty rice companies, 2010-15
- Kikkoman Sales USA promotes rice for Asian cuisine
- LT Foods’ Royal brand features rice varieties from different locations around the world
- Lundberg Family Farms places emphasis on sustainable farming practices
- Otis McAllister highlights rice varieties grown in their original regions
- Convenience
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of select convenient rice products, 2010-15
What’s Struggling?
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- Rice mixes
What’s Next?
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- Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
- Free-from an increasingly common theme in NPD, label communications
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- Figure 21: Top claims for rice and instant rice, 2010-15
- An increasing emphasis on education and ideas
- Mixes and blends make super grains more accessible
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
- As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
- Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
- Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
- Among grains, and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
- Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
Purchase of Rice and Grains
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- Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
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- Figure 22: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
- Younger adults purchase wider array of rice and grain
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- Figure 23: Purchase of rice, by age, January 2016
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- Figure 24: Purchase of grain, by age, January 2016
- Households with more kids use more rice and grain products
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- Figure 25: Purchase of rice, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
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- Figure 26: Purchase of grain, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
- Hispanics more likely to purchase most rice and grain products
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- Figure 27: Purchase of rice (flavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
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- Figure 28: Purchase of rice (unflavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
- Figure 29: Purchase of grain, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
CHAID Analysis – Grains Purchase
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- Methodology
- Convincing consumers on texture and meal suitability is key
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- Figure 30: Grains purchase – CHAID – Tree output, January 2016
How and When Rice and Grains Are Consumed
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- As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
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- Figure 31: How and when rice and grains are consumed, January 2016
- Not just dinner: Snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
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- Figure 32: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
Attributes Associated with Rice and Grains
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- Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
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- Figure 33: Attributes associated with rice and grains I, January 2016
- Convenience and suitability are strong points for rice
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- Figure 34: Attributes associated with rice and grains II, January 2016
- Correspondence analysis: Grains and rice attributes
- Methodology
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- Figure 35: Correspondence analysis – Grains and rice attributes, January 2016
Attitudes toward Rice and Grains
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- Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
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- Figure 36: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
- Young adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
Interest in Different Types of Grains
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- Awareness and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
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- Figure 38: Interest in different types of grains, January 2016
- Young adults more likely to express interest in a wide variety of grains
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- Figure 39: Interest in different types of grains, have tried and would use again, by age, January 2016
Interest in Flavored Rice or Grain Mixes
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- Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
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- Figure 40: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 41: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 12/1/13-11/29/15
- Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of packaged rice, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
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- Figure 44: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
- Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
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- Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
- Figure 47: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of packaged grains/rice and dry grain/rice dishes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
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- Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains labeled with an "ancient grains" claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
- Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of rice and grains, by presence of GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
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- Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of non-GMO verified rice and grains, by segment, at current prices, 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
- Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by Whole-Grain Council certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 52: MULO sales of dry rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 53: MULO sales of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- CHAID data
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- Figure 54: Grains and rice purchases – CHAID – Table output, January 2016
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