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Grains and Rice - US - April 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Modest pace of growth continues
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
Figure 2: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
Figure 3: Health attributes associated with rice and grains, January 2016
The opportunities
Not just dinner: snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
Figure 4: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
Younger adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
Figure 5: Attitudes toward rice and grains, by age, January 2016
Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
Figure 6: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Modest pace of growth continues
Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
Consumers cooking more frequently
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Modest pace of growth continues
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of rice and grains, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Dry rice outpaces mixes/ready-to-eat
Figure 9: Share of rice and grains, by segment, 2013 and 2015
Health perceptions and flavor exploration help drive dry rice sales
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice, at current prices, 2010-20
Premium on convenience: Ready-to-serve rice outpaces mixes
Figure 11: Share of rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by subsegment, 2010-15
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, at current prices, 2010-20
Solid growth in natural food channel
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Health perceptions and versatility help rice and grains gain on pasta
Figure 14: MULO sales of pasta, by segment, 2010-15
Grains/rice could be threatened by recent Pasta NPD
Health and nutrition
Taste and texture
MARKET FACTORS
Consumers cooking more, enjoying it more
Figure 15: Attitudes/opinions about food, any agree, May 2006-June 2015
Core user groups growing
Figure 16: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-14
Figure 17: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
Flavor variety and authenticity help smaller players
Convenience drives sales for big brands
Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
MANUFACTURER SALES OF RICE AND GRAINS
Many companies compete; top two strengthen their positions
Private label a growing force in dry rice
Ample opportunity for smaller players as well
Manufacturer sales of rice andgrains
Figure 18: MULO sales of grains and rice, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Flavor, variety, and authenticity
Figure 19: MULO sales of select specialty rice companies, 2010-15
Kikkoman Sales USA promotes rice for Asian cuisine
LT Foods’ Royal brand features rice varieties from different locations around the world
Lundberg Family Farms places emphasis on sustainable farming practices
Otis McAllister highlights rice varieties grown in their original regions
Convenience
Figure 20: MULO sales of select convenient rice products, 2010-15
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Rice mixes
WHAT’S NEXT?
Rice and grains as a portable snack or away-from-home lunch
Free-from an increasingly common theme in NPD, label communications
Figure 21: Top claims for rice and instant rice, 2010-15
An increasing emphasis on education and ideas
Mixes and blends make super grains more accessible
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
Among grains, and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
PURCHASE OF RICE AND GRAINS
Dry rice and oats are household staples, others have room to grow
Figure 22: Purchase of rice and grains, January 2016
Younger adults purchase wider array of rice and grain
Figure 23: Purchase of rice, by age, January 2016
Figure 24: Purchase of grain, by age, January 2016
Households with more kids use more rice and grain products
Figure 25: Purchase of rice, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
Figure 26: Purchase of grain, by number of children under 18 in household, January 2016
Hispanics more likely to purchase most rice and grain products
Figure 27: Purchase of rice (flavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
Figure 28: Purchase of rice (unflavored varieties), by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
Figure 29: Purchase of grain, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
CHAID ANALYSIS – GRAINS PURCHASE
Methodology
Convincing consumers on texture and meal suitability is key
Figure 30: Grains purchase – CHAID – Tree output, January 2016
HOW AND WHEN RICE AND GRAINS ARE CONSUMED
As a side dish at dinner remains the most common rice/grain occasion
Figure 31: How and when rice and grains are consumed, January 2016
Not just dinner: Snacking, lunch important occasions for young adults
Figure 32: How and when rice and grains are consumed, by age, January 2016
ATTRIBUTES ASSOCIATED WITH RICE AND GRAINS
Despite generally healthy image, opportunity for more specific education
Figure 33: Attributes associated with rice and grains I, January 2016
Convenience and suitability are strong points for rice
Figure 34: Attributes associated with rice and grains II, January 2016
Correspondence analysis: Grains and rice attributes
Methodology
Figure 35: Correspondence analysis – Grains and rice attributes, January 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD RICE AND GRAINS
Rice and grains seen as a healthier alternative to pasta
Figure 36: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
Young adults more likely to seek specific health benefits
Figure 37: Attitudes toward rice and grains, January 2016
INTEREST IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF GRAINS
Awareness and interest highest for quinoa and chia seeds
Figure 38: Interest in different types of grains, January 2016
Young adults more likely to express interest in a wide variety of grains
Figure 39: Interest in different types of grains, have tried and would use again, by age, January 2016
INTEREST IN FLAVORED RICE OR GRAIN MIXES
Opportunity to pair rice and grains with a wide range of cuisines
Figure 40: Interest in flavored rice or grain mixes, January 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 41: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 42: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks 12/1/13-11/29/15
Figure 43: Natural supermarket sales of packaged rice, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 44: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 45: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 47: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of packaged grains/rice and dry grain/rice dishes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 48: Natural supermarket sales of packaged grains labeled with an "ancient grains" claim, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 49: Natural supermarket sales of rice and grains, by presence of GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of non-GMO verified rice and grains, by segment, at current prices, 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of grains and rice, by Whole-Grain Council certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 12/1/13 and 11/29/15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 52: MULO sales of dry rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 53: MULO sales of dry rice mixes/ready-to-serve rice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
CHAID data
Figure 54: Grains and rice purchases – CHAID – Table output, January 2016

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