Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dairy milk category sales decline in estimated 2015
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Milk USDA volume consumption decreases
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- Figure 2: US per capita consumption of fluid milk, in pound per person, 2000-14
- Non-dairy milk popularity challenges dairy milk consumption
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- Figure 3: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- The opportunities
- Milk innovation emphasizing drinking/usage occasion
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- Figure 4: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Innovation with trending attributes, like easy digestion
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- Figure 5: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, January 2016
- Greater emphasis on dairy milk’s niche health benefits and taste
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- Figure 6: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, January 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk forecast to decline in estimated 2015-20
- Only flavored milk sees growth in 2015
- Majority of consumers drink non-dairy milk, category sales grows
- Milk consumption, retail prices decline
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dairy milk category forecast to decline through 2020
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Majority of dairy milk segments on the decline
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Flavored milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- All channels experience sales loss from 2013-15
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- Figure 12: Sales of market, by segment, current year
- Natural channel dairy milk sales grow
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013-Nov. 29, 2015
- Majority of dairy milk sales at natural channels organic
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov 29, 2015
- Grass-fed dairy milk sales minority, but has potential
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by "grass fed" label claims, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov 29, 2015
Market Perspective – Non-dairy Milk
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- Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
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- Figure 16: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Majority of consumers drink non-dairy milk
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- Figure 19: Non-dairy milk consumption, January 2016
Market Factors
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- Milk USDA volume consumption decreases
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- Figure 20: US per capita consumption of fluid milk, in pound per person, 2000-14
- Milk retail prices decline in 2015
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- Figure 21: Average retail milk prices, per gallon, US city average, 2005-15
- Milk’s healthy image challenged in the media
- Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
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- Figure 22: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
- Households with children decline
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- Figure 23: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
- Millennials as parents
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- Figure 24: Percent of households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
- Hispanics as parents
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- Figure 25: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
- Hispanics as Millennials
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- Figure 26: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading companies, private label struggle at MULO channels
- Lactose-free, flavored milks seeing success
- Private label, skim/low-fat milk struggle at MULO channels
- Dairy milk innovation through packaging, function, and benefits
Manufacturer Sales of Dairy Milk
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- HP Hood, WhiteWave sees growth thanks to lactose-free, organic milks
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of dairy milk
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Dean Foods DairyPure unites brands
- Lactose-free/easy digestibility attracting attention, sales growth
- Flavored milks see MULO gains
What’s Struggling?
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- Skim/low-fat milk sales decline at MULO channels
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Private label losses dollar sales and market share
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Next?
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- Milk from jersey cows offers consumers easy digestibility
- US products
- Global products
- Packaging to encourage more on-the-go consumption
- Ultra- and micro-filtered milks offer nutritional, longer lasting milk
- US products – Filtered for quality
- Global products – Filtered for longevity
- Opportunities to highlight unique health benefits
- New innovation to increase usage occasions
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Majority drinking a variety of dairy milk types
- Dairy milk consumers also drink non-dairy milk
- 90% of adults drink dairy milk
- Majority of kids under age 18 drink dairy milk
- 58% of dairy milk consumers frequent drinkers
- Consumers most likely using dairy milk as an addition, ingredient
- Natural, vitamin and mineral content most important attributes
- Consumers prefer refrigerated milks, interest in easy digestion
- Bone health, taste leading reasons for drinking dairy milk
- Overall consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
Cross-Consumption of Dairy Milks
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- Majority drinking a variety of dairy milk types
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- Figure 31: Repertoire analysis, dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
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- Figure 32: Repertoire analysis, dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Cross-Consumption of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk
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- Dairy milk consumers also drink non-dairy milk
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- Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
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- Figure 34: Non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Core Consumers – Adult Consumption
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- 90% of adults drink dairy milk
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- Figure 35: Dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
- Men heaviest dairy milk drinkers
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- Figure 36: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender, January 2016
- Millennials core drinkers, but opportunity to appeal to older drinkers
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- Figure 37: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by generation, January 2016
- Presence of children influences adult personal consumption
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- Figure 38: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
- Whites, Hispanics top dairy milk consumers
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- Figure 39: Dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Core Consumers – Child(ren) Consumption
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- Majority of kids under age 18 drink dairy milk
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- Figure 40: Dairy milk consumption – Child consumption, January 2016
Consumption Frequency
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- 58% of dairy milk consumers frequent drinkers
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- Figure 41: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
- Millennials frequent drinkers, opportunity to encourage non-Millennials
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- Figure 42: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
- Parents frequent dairy milk drinkers
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- Figure 43: Dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
- Opportunity to increase consumption among Black consumers
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- Figure 44: Dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Consumption Habits
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- Consumers most likely using dairy milk as an addition, ingredient
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- Figure 45: Dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
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- Figure 46: Dairy milk consumption habits – Meal accompaniment, by demographics, January 2016
- Men more open to drinking dairy milk like a beverage
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- Figure 47: Dairy milk consumption habits, by gender, January 2016
- Millennials most likely to drink dairy milk as a drink
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- Figure 48: Dairy milk consumption habits, by generation, January 2016
- Parents drink dairy milk as more occasions
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- Figure 49: Dairy milk consumption habits, by parental status, January 2016
- Hispanic consumption overlaps with Millennial’s habits
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- Figure 50: Dairy milk consumption habits, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Preferred Attributes
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- Natural, vitamin and mineral content most important attributes
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- Figure 51: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, January 2016
- Opportunity for milk to cater to consumer’s lifestage
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- Figure 52: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, by generation, January 2016
- Presence of children influence parents’ important attributes
- Mother and fathers consider different attributes important
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- Figure 53: Dairy milk preferred attributes – Top three ranking, by parental status, January 2016
Attitudes and Behaviors toward Dairy Milk
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- Consumers prefer refrigerated milks, interest in easy digestion
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- Figure 54: Dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
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- Figure 55: Dairy milk attitudes and behavior – CHAID – Tree output, January 2015
- CHAID Analysis methodology
- Older Millennials most likely open to new milk innovation
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- Figure 56: Dairy milk attitudes and behaviors – Generation, January 2016
Reasons for Consuming
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- Bone health, taste leading reasons for drinking dairy milk
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- Figure 57: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, January 2016
- Millennials seek overall health, non-Millennials want taste and nutrients
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- Figure 58: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
- Parents drink milk for health
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- Figure 59: Reasons for consuming dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
Milk Perceptions
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- Overall consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
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- Figure 60: Milk perceptions, January 2016
- Consumers in their own words
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- CHAID Analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 69: US supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 70: US drugstore sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
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- Figure 71: US sales od dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 72: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 73: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 74: MULO sales of flavored milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 75: MULO sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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