Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Benign consumer background
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- Figure 1: Consumer confidence, 2009-15
- Retail sales slowdown in the final quarter and a disappointing Christmas
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales value growth, 2015
- Black Friday
- Economic outlook
- Online
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- Figure 3: Online share of all retail sales, monthly data, 2007-15
- Figure 4: Online share of retail sales by sector, 2009-15
- Christmas performance
- Retail sector breakdown
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- Figure 5: Major retail sectors, sales growth December and 4th quarter 2015
- Leading retailers
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- Figure 6: Leading retailers: Christmas performance, 2015
- The consumer
- How many bought
- What did they buy?
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- Figure 7: Gifts bought in-store/online, Christmas 2015
- In-store vs online
- Research
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- Figure 8: Where people researched gift buying, Christmas 2015
- Which device?
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- Figure 9: Proportion of device owners who use them to research gift buying, Christmas 2015
- Buying
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- Figure 10: Where people bought their Christmas gifts, Christmas 2015
- Why buy online?
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- Figure 11: Why Christmas gift buyers shopped online, December 2015
- And next Christmas?
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- Figure 12: Shopping intentions profile for Christmas 2016, January 2016
- Provenance
- Personalisation
- Prices and promotions
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- Figure 13: Attitudes to prices, provenance and personalisation, Christmas 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Where next for end-of November discounting?
- The facts
- The implications
- Cutting prices may be a short term fix, but it creates long term problems
- The facts
- The implications
- Where next for online?
- The facts
- The implications
- Prospects for 2016
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Retail sector slowed in Q4
- Inflation falls to zero
- Consumer confidence
- Black Friday
- Online
- Outlook
Christmas 2015
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- The retail sector in 2015 – Slowing down
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- Figure 14: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-15
- Pattern of sales
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- Figure 15: UK retail sales value growth, 2015
- Inflation
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales volume growth, 2015
- December as proportion of the year as a whole
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- Figure 17: December – Relative importance, 2005-15
- Black Friday
- What is it?
- Online and Black Friday
- Black Friday in practice
- ‘Black Friday’ in 2015
- Black Friday in future
- Black Friday in numbers
- Economic background
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- Figure 18: Consumer confidence, 2009-15
- Employment/unemployment
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- Figure 19: Employment/unemployment rates, 2010-15
- Real incomes
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- Figure 20: Income growth and inflation, 2010-15
- Housing market
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- Figure 21: Average UK house prices, 2003-15
- Savings
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- Figure 22: Savings – Actual and planned, 2012-16
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- Figure 23: UK savings ratio, 2003-15
- Outlook for 2016
- Online
- Online pattern changing
- Online sales pattern
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- Figure 24: Online share of all retail sales, monthly data, 2007-15
- Figure 25: November online share relative to December, 2007-15
- Where next?
- Online sales by sector
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- Figure 26: Online share of retail sales by sector, 2009-15
- Pure players vs store based retailers
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- Figure 27: Store based retailers vs internet pure players – Share of online sales, 2009-15
- Why?
- Implications for the high street
- Getting online in perspective
- Why aren’t online sales higher?
Leading Retailers – What You Need to Know
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- Trading up
- Food retailers – Blip rather than reversing the trend
- Clothing retailers, some weak leaders, but plenty of strong performances as well
- Great figures from Dixons and a pleasant surprise from WH Smith
Christmas Trading Performance
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- Sector data
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- Figure 28: Sector sales, December 2015
- Figure 29: Major retail sectors, sales growth December and 4th quarter 2015
- Food retailers
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 30: Food retailers: Christmas performance, 2015
- Where next?
- Clothing and footwear retailers
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 31: Clothing retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2015
- Where next?
- Mixed goods retailers (including department stores)
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 32: Department stores and other mixed goods retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2015
- Where next?
- Other sectors – Homewares, home shopping, miscellaneous
- Benchmarks
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- Figure 33: Other stores fourth quarter performance, 2015
- The companies
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- Figure 34: Home and other miscellaneous retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2015
- Where next?
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- How many bought
- What did they buy?
- In-store vs online
- Research
- Which device?
- Why buy online?
- And next Christmas?
- Provenance and personalisation
- Prices and promotions
Who Bought What?
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- In-store vs online
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- Figure 35: Gifts bought in-store/online, Christmas 2015
- Buyer profiles
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- Figure 36: Profile of consumers by where gifts bought, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 37: Profile of people who buy particular gifts, Christmas 2015
- Trends
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- Figure 38: Gifts bought, Christmas 2010-15
How Many Types of Gifts Bought?
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- All gift buying
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- Figure 39: Number of different types of goods bought as gifts, online or in-store, Christmas 2015
- In-store vs online
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- Figure 40: Number of different types of goods bought as gifts, online, in-store, Christmas 2015
- Men vs women
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- Figure 41: Number of different types of goods bought as gifts, online or in-store, men, women, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 42: Number of different types of goods bought as gifts, online, by gender, Christmas 2015
The Customer Journey
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- Figure 43: Where people researched gift buying, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 44: Profile of gift buyers by where they did their research, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 45: Where researched, by where bought, Christmas 2015
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The Customer Journey – Research by Device
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- Figure 46: Online research by type of device used, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 47: Proportion of device owners who use them to research gift buying, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 48: Profile of device usage by research task, Christmas 2015
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The Customer Journey – Purchase
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- Figure 49: Where people bought their Christmas gifts, Christmas 2015
- Buyers and spending
- Customer profiles
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- Figure 50: Profile of shoppers by how much they bought online /in-store Christmas 2015
- Where people buy and what they bought
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- Figure 51: What people bought by where they shopped, Christmas 2015
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The Customer Journey – Purchase by Device
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- Figure 52: Online activity, (all devices), Christmas 2015
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- Figure 53: Online purchases by type of device used, Christmas 2015
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- Figure 54: Use of auction sites or Click and Collect by gifts bought, Christmas 2015
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The Customer Journey – Why Shoppers Bought Online
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- What is the attraction of buying online?
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- Figure 55: Why Christmas gift buyers shopped online, December 2015
The Customer Journey – Next Christmas?
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- Figure 56: Shopping intentions for Christmas 2016, January 2016
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- Figure 57: Shopping intentions profile for Christmas 2016, January 2016
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Provenance, Personalisation and Pricing
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- Pricing
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- Figure 58: Example of Amazon pricing, 2016
- Personalisation
- Ethical issues
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- Figure 59: Attitudes to prices, provenance and personalisation, Christmas 2015
- Customer profiles by attitudes
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- Figure 60: Profile of those who agree with pricing/provenance statements, January 2016
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- Figure 61: Profile of those who disagree with pricing/provenance statements, January 2016
Impact of Black Friday
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- Figure 62: Black Friday: Number buying goods either as gifts or for themselves, November 2015
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- Figure 63: Profile of people who made purchases on Black Friday: November 2015
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Attitudes towards Black Friday Promotions
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- Figure 64: Attitudes to end-of-November promotions, January 2016
- Attitudes of those who actually bought goods in end-of-November promotion
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- Figure 65: Attitudes to Black Friday promotions by those who bought in them, January 2016
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Financial definitions
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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