Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
- Growth in 25-34s and under-15s will support the market
- Rising consumer spending to benefit the market
- Companies, brands and innovation
- One in 20 food launches are for seasonal occasions
- Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
- The consumer
- Christmas drives more food purchasing than other occasions
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- Figure 2: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
- Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 3: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
- Traditional and indulgent products are winners for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 4: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Seasonal occasions prompt impulse buys and trading up
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- Figure 5: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
- High levels of treating for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 6: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
- Food is integral to seasonal celebrations
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Regional seasonal celebration products attract most interest
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- Figure 8: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Preparing meals for seasonal occasions more likely to be stressful than fun
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Operators can create a USP through a healthier positioning
- The facts
- The implications
- Premiumisation can help to stop people drop out of the Halloween food market as they age
- The facts
- The implications
- A need for products that reduce the stress of cooking without losing the scratch-cook feel
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Growth in 25-34s and under-15s to provide a boost
- Rising consumer spending to benefit the market
- Sales of seasonal-specific treats stand at £827 million
- Deflation in the Easter egg market
- Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
Market Size and Segmentation
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- Volume sales of selected seasonal celebration foods in decline
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- Figure 10: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
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- Figure 11: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume and value, 2010-20
- Figure 12: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
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- Figure 13: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 14: Leading grocers’ retail sales* of selected seasonal celebration foods, by value and volume, 2010-15
- Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
- Lower prices help to buoy sales of Easter confectionery
- Volume sales of confectionery have been stable
- The value of the seasonal biscuits market crumbles
- Seasonal cakes on the rise
Market Drivers
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- Grocers’ sales peak at key seasonal times
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- Figure 15: Total monthly retail sales of predominantly food retailers, January 2013-July 2015
- Ageing population presents a challenge
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- Figure 16: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
- Growing multiculturalism in the UK
- The growth in consumer spending should benefit the market
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- Figure 17: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2012-June 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Seasonal peaks in adspend
- Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
- 5% of food launches are specifically for seasonal occasions
- Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Figure 18: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on food, by month, January 2011-July 2015
- Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
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- Figure 19: Share of total adspend on food from the UK’s leading supermarkets*, January 2011-December 2014
- Seasonal occasions are important for brands too
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Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Methodology
- One in 20 food launches are for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 20: Launches of food specifically for annual seasonal occasions* as a share of all food NPD, 2009/10-2014/15
- Chocolate and baked goods lead seasonal NPD
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- Figure 21: Share of food launches specifically for annual seasonal occasions, by category, 2009/10-2014/15
- Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
- Launches for lesser seasonal occasions remain rare
- Free-from launches reach a five-year high
- Better-for-you products remain rare
- Standout packaging taps into more impulsive shopping habits
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Seasonal occasions drive high levels of food purchasing
- Under-35s and families are the core buyers
- Traditional and indulgent products are most attractive
- Seasonal food shopping is less restrained than everyday
- Notable interest in different types of seasonal food products
- Taste tests are an attractive proposition
- Food waste can be a problem
- Preparing meals for seasonal occasion can be stressful
Purchasing of Food for Seasonal Occasions
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- Food plays an integral role in seasonal celebrations
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- Figure 22: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
- Christmas drives more food purchasing than other occasions
- Young people are the key audience for Halloween and Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 23: Consumers who buy food for Easter, Halloween and Valentine’s Day, by age, July 2015
- Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 24: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
- Many shoppers are drawn to foods they wouldn’t normally buy
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- Figure 25: Food purchases made for seasonal occasions compared to typical food purchasing, by seasonal occasion, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
Choice Factors for Buying Food for Seasonal Occasions
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- Traditional products are the winners for seasonal occasions…
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- Figure 26: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- …but something unusual also appeals
- Indulgence is key
- Under-35s look for the fun factor
Food Habits on Seasonal Occasions
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- Seasonal occasions prompt impulse buys
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- Figure 27: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Seasonal occasions can prompt trading up
- Opportunities for more adult-oriented seasonal-themed products
- High levels of treating for seasonal occasions
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- Figure 28: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
Attitudes towards Food for Seasonal Occasions
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- Food is integral to seasonal celebrations
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- Figure 29: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Taste tests are an attractive proposition for risk-averse shoppers
- A shorter lead time to seasonal occasions could be beneficial
- Food waste can be an issue around seasonal occasions
Interest in Food Products for Seasonal Occasions
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- Regional products attract interest…
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- Figure 30: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- …as do world seasonal celebration foods
- Scope to expand celebration foods into other categories
- More companies could provide a helping hand in baking
- Room to develop better-for-you options
Attitudes towards Meals for Seasonal Occasions
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- Preparing meals for seasonal occasions more likely to be stressful than fun
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
- Young women are most interested in eating healthily on seasonal occasions
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Total market
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- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by value, 2015-20
- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by volume, 2015-20
- Seasonal Celebration Confectionery
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- Figure 34: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume and value, 2010-20
- Figure 35: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 37: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2015-20
- Seasonal Celebration Cakes
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- Figure 39: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume and value, 2010-20
- Figure 40: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 42: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2015-20
- Seasonal Celebration Biscuits
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- Figure 44: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume and value, 2010-20
- Figure 45: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 47: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits*, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume, 2015-20
- Hot Cross Buns
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- Figure 49: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume and value, 2010-20
- Figure 50: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by value, 2010-20
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of hot cross buns, by value, 2015-20
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- Figure 52: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume, 2010-20
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts* for hot cross buns, by volume, 2015-20
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