Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Competition at foodservice
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- Figure 1: Coffee tracker, June 2015
- Cold-Brew, liquid coffee enhancers lacking interest
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- Figure 2: Cold brew and liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
- Single-cup’s environmental troubles
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- Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
- The opportunities
- Segments experiencing growth
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- Figure 4: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Important influencers: freshness, variety, flavor
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- Figure 5: Purchasing attributes, June 2015
- Functional opportunities
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- Figure 6: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
- Positive single-cup perceptions and interests
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- Figure 7: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
- What it means
The Market – What you need to know
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- Category growth expected through 2020
- Single-cup, RTD coffee sees strongest growth
- Hot coffee most consumed at home
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category growth forecast to continue through 2020
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Single-cup catching up to roasted coffee segment
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Single-cup, RTD coffee segments experience growth through 2020
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Cold brew sales grow 338.9% from 2010-15
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Other channels dominate category sales, supermarkets close behind
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Natural channel sales grow 56.1% from 2013-15
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15
- Coffee segments see sales growth at natural channels
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- Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 2013 and June 2015
- Organic coffees lead in natural channels sales growth
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- Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15
Market Perspective
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- Hot coffee dominates usage, fuels at-home consumption
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- Figure 18: Coffee Tracker, June 2015
Market Factors
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- 2015 coffee prices continue to decline
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- Figure 19: Coffee retail price, US city average, trending 2010-15
- Household income declines through 2013
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- Figure 20: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
- Majority’s median household income $50K plus
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- Figure 21: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013
- Households with families’ income increasing
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- Figure 22: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
- Households with children declining, Millennials becoming parents
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- Figure 23: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Figure 24: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
- Hispanic, Asian populations experiencing growth
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- Figure 25: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
- Figure 26: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading companies see MULO sales growth
- Coffee house brands, single-cup, RTD coffee see MULO growth
- Instant, decaffeinated coffee decline
- Opportunity for functional coffees
Manufacturer Sales of Coffee
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- Leading companies see MULO sales growth
- Manufacturer sales of coffee
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 28: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Coffeehouse brands dominate MULO roasted coffee sales
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Single-cup MULO sales sees 19.6% growth
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Ready-to-drink coffees see double digit MULO sales growth
- Cold brew enters MULO channels
- Nitro coffee – Cold brew evolution
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- Figure 31: Cuvee Coffee - Nitro Coffee In Cans
What’s Struggling?
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- Instant coffee MULO sales decline
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- Figure 32: Instant coffee launches, 2010-Aug 25, 2015
- Figure 33: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Decaffeinated coffees
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- Figure 34: Household roasted coffee consumption, by coffee type, 2011-15
- Figure 35: MULO sales of decaffeinated coffee, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 36: Percent of total new decaffeinated coffee products launched since 2010, by year, 2010 to Aug 27, 2015
What’s Next – Functional Coffees
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- Consumer looking for functionality
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- Figure 37: Percent of coffee/RTD coffee launches with functional or plus claims (antioxidant, digestive, prebiotic, slimming, high protein, vitamin/mineral fortified, etc), 2010- Aug 17, 2015
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- Figure 38: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
- Brands with functional attributes
- Protein and vitamins/minerals
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Majority drinks coffee
- Single-cup seeing environmental impact
- 33% interested in cold brew trial
- 26% interested in trying liquid coffee enhancer
Core Target Audiences
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- Older Millennials heaviest drinkers of each coffee type
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- Figure 39: Usage, by generation, June 2015
- Parents, particularly fathers, a core coffee audience
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- Figure 40: Usage – Any consumption, by parental status, June 2015
- Higher income influences single cup, RTD consumption
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- Figure 41: Usage, by household income, June 2015
- Acculturated Hispanics and Asians heavy coffee consumers
- Hispanics, Asians heavy coffee drinkers, by individual consumption
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- Figure 42: Usage, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
- Acculturated Hispanics and Asians most likely drinking roasted coffee
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- Figure 43: Roasted coffee household consumption, by language spoken in household, March to August 2015
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- Figure 44: Roasted coffee household consumption, by generation and income, March to August 2015
Cross-consumption Variety
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- Consumers drinking a variety of brews
- Moderate drinkers drink the most variety of coffee types
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- Figure 45: Usage – Any drink, by usage – Any drink, June 2015
Roasted Grounds/Bean Consumption
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- Ground coffee consumed most frequently
- Parents, Millennials, Hispanics heaviest pre-ground/bean coffee drinkers
- Millennials, Asian stand out as moderate drinkers
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- Figure 46: Usage, by roasted coffee type, June 2015
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- Figure 47: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
Single-cup Consumption
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- Single cup coffee consumption frequency dominates espressos
- Higher income Millennials, parents heaviest users
- Higher income Millennials, parents drinking weekly
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- Figure 48: Usage, by single-cup type, June 2015
- Figure 49: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
Single-Cup’s Environmental Impact
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- Single-cup packaging can affect volume consumption
- Reusable pod appeal
- Recyclable programs viewed favorably
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- Figure 50: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
- Millennial women’s purchases most affected by environmental concerns
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- Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Tree output, June 2015
Ready-To-Drink Consumption
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- RTD coffee not yet an everyday beverage
- Older Millennials are heaviest RTD drinkers
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- Figure 52: Usage, by RTD coffee type, June 2015
- Figure 53: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
Cold Brew
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- Majority disinterested in trying cold brew
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- Figure 54: Cold brew interest, June 2015
- Attention to new brew methods drives cold brew interest
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- Figure 55: Cold brew –Positive attributes, by cold brew usage or interest, June 2015
- Disliking cold brew taste is top reason for disinterest
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- Figure 56: Cold brew –Negative attributes, by cold brew interest, June 2015
Liquid Coffee Enhancers
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- Majority disinterested in trying liquid coffee enhancers
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- Figure 57: Liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
- Curiosity, convenience drives liquid coffee enhancer interest
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- Figure 58: Liquid coffee enhancer – Positive attributes, June 2015
- Liquid coffee enhancer disinterest
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- Figure 59: Liquid coffee enhancer – Negative attributes, June 2015
Important Purchase Attributes
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- Convenience influences coffee purchase
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- Figure 60: Correspondence Analysis – Purchasing attributes, June 2015
Purchase Location
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- Grocery stores, mass merchandisers are top purchase locations
- Coffee shopping habits vary most with age and presence of children
- Household income impact
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- Figure 61: Purchase location, by usage type – Heavy drinkers, June 2015
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- Figure 62: Coffee new product/new variety/new range extension, by coffee types, by retail location, rolling year ending August 2015
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 73: US supermarket sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 74: US drugstore sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
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- Figure 75: US sales of coffee through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 76: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015
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- Figure 77: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 78: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 79: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 80: MULO sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 81: MULO sales of ready to drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
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Appendix – CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 82: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Table output, June 2015
Appendix – Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 83: Purchasing attributes, JUNE 2015
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