Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- “Other meats” growing faster than beef and pork
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of packaged red meat
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
- More new meat product launches feature pork instead of beef
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- Figure 3: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
- Market drivers
- Significant increases in price drive consumers away from red meat
- Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
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- Figure 4: Changing behavior: eating more beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
- The number of households with children is on the decline
- Competitive context
- Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
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- Figure 5: Health-related reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
- People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
- Pink slime and other scandals still on consumers’ minds
- Consumers most prefer beef, ground meat
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- Figure 6: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, November 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- How to spur trial of less familiar meats, such as lamb?
- Issues
- Insight: Focus on health benefits of less popular meats and lower cost
- Households with children eat more meat, but those with older children can’t afford to buy more. How to appeal to parents?
- Issues
- Insight: Highlight natural traits and offer fast-food type of products
- The use of red meat declines with age. How to spur interest?
- Issues
- Insight: Focus on nutritional properties and product purity
Trend Application
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- Trend: The Nouveau Poor
- Trend: Help Me Help Myself
- Trend: Locavore
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Sales of packaged red meat to reach $4.8 billion in 2019
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Food prices rise, making red meat a premium item
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- Figure 10: Changes in consumer food price indexes, 2012-15
- Households with kids purchase more meat, especially dads
- The number of households with children is on the decline
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- Figure 11: Total US households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Consumers exhibiting more “flexitarian” behavior for health
- People eat red meat when dining out, as it may be cheaper
- Food scandals continue to make consumers wary of the origin of meat
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Lamb and other meats enjoy rapid rise in market share growth, like beef
- Sales of market, by segment
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Higher meat prices hurting red meat category
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment Performance – Beef
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- Key points
- High prices and quality concerns to result in flat beef sales from 2014-19
- Sales and forecast of beef
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Segment Performance – Pork
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- Limited supplies lead to higher prices and lower pork sales
- Sales and forecast of pork
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Segment Performance – Other Red Meats
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- Key points
- Sales of other meats expected to slow down during the 2014-19 period
- Sales and forecast of other red meats
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets’ share of red meat sales increases
- Sales of red meat, by channel
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
- Sales of red meat, by other retail channels
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- Figure 21: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2009-14
- Sales of packaged red meat grew steadily from 2009-14
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- Figure 22: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2009-14
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Category growth driven by gains in refrigerated red meat segment
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- Figure 23: Cargill, “Ground Beef Production: From Start to Delicious Finish,” YouTube video, November 2014
- Manufacturer sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of packaged red meat and red meat by-products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
Brand Share – Refrigerated Red Meat
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- Key points
- Transparency and natural products drive red meat growth
- Manufacturer sales of refrigerated red meat
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
- Figure 26: MULO sales of refrigerated red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
Brand Share – Packaged Pork and Pork Products
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- Convenience drives pork growth
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- Figure 27: Hormel “Always Tender Pork Tenderloin – Grilling,” internet video, June 2014
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- Figure 28: Farmland, “Farmland - For the Love of Pork,” television commercial, June 2014
- Manufacturer sales of packaged pork and pork products
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
- Figure 30: MULO sales of packaged pork and pork products, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014 (continued)
Innovations and Innovators
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- Increases in new packaging, pork products, and allergy-related claims
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- Figure 31: Percentage of red meat introductions, by launch type, January 2010-December 2014
- Figure 32: Top claims on red meat introductions, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
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- Figure 33: Percentage of meat product launches featuring beef and pork, January 2010-December 2014
- Figure 34: Leading nonmeat ingredients found in packaged meat products, by percentage, January 2010-December 2014
- Manufacturers respond with more natural products
- Consumers seeking products to address certain dietary concerns
- Cost still a barrier for many consumers
Correspondence Analysis for Packaged Red Meat
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- Methodology
- Concerns about purity and price push consumers to poultry
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- Figure 35: Correspondence analysis, February 2015
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- Figure 36: Characteristics consumers associate with different types of meat, February 2015
Overview – Frequency and Type of Meat Consumption
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- Key points
- Beef is the favorite type of red meat consumers prefer, but those aged 25-34 also like exotic meats
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- Figure 37: Frequency of eating red meat at home, November 2014
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- Figure 38: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by age, November 2014
- Figure 39: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by gender, November 2014
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- Figure 40: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same, November 2014
- Consumers want meat products that are natural and unadulterated
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- Figure 41: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, November 2014
- Figure 42: How red meat is cooked and prepared, November 2014
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- Figure 43: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by presence of children in household, November 2014
- Restaurants offer red meats at value prices and quick service
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- Figure 44: Where red meat purchases are made, November 2014
Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Beef
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- Key points
- Households with children eating more beef than previous year
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- Figure 45: Important characteristics for red meat purchases, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Beef, November 2014
- Parents use beef as a good source of nutrition for their children, fathers do so more than mothers
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- Figure 46: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 47: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 48: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 49: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by gender, November 2014
Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Pork/Ham
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- Key points
- iGeneration/Millennials most likely to say they have cut down on the amount of pork and ham they are eating
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- Figure 50: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by household income, November 2014
- Figure 51: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
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- Figure 52: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by age, November 2014
- Parents, pork, and prepubescents
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- Figure 53: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 54: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Lamb
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- Key points
- iGeneration/Millennials most likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
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- Figure 55: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by age, November 2014
- Figure 56: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by generation, November 2014
- Households with children and men with children are more likely to be eating more lamb than during the prior year
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- Figure 57: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 58: Changing behavior eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Other Red Meat
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- Key points
- Those aged 25-34 are most likely to say they are eating more red meat than during the prior year
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- Figure 59: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by age, November 2014
- Figure 60: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by area, November 2014
- Men, including men with small children, eat more types of meat
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- Figure 61: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 62: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
Reasons Consumers are Eating Less Red Meat
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- Key points
- Teens are expensive to feed, and women are turning to other proteins
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- Figure 63: Reasons for eating less red meat, by gender, November 2014
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- Figure 64: Reasons for eating less red meat, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Aging consumers try to control health by reducing red meat intake
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- Figure 65: Reasons for eating less red meat, by age, November 2014
Preferred Red Meat Characteristics
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- Key points
- Purity of beef of great concern to consumers
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- Figure 66: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by gender, November 2014
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- Figure 67: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by generation, November 2014
- Figure 68: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by household income, November 2014
- Parents want purest products for youngest children
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- Figure 69: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 70: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Natural and additive-free are also important in pork and ham products
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- Figure 71: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by gender, November 2014
- Figure 72: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by generation, November 2014
- Those living in the West most likely to seek all-natural and local farm-sourced lamb items
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- Figure 73: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by gender, November 2014
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- Figure 74: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by region, November 2014
- Figure 75: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Lamb, by millennial parents, November 2014
- Natural, vegetarian-fed properties are important in other types of red meat products
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- Figure 76: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender, November 2014
- Figure 77: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 78: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Other red meat, by presence of children in household, November 2014
Where Consumers Purchase Red Meat
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- Key points
- Older consumers use supermarkets for red meat purchases more than younger counterparts
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- Figure 79: Where red meat purchases are made, by age, November 2014
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- Figure 80: Where red meat purchases are made, by generation, November 2014
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- Figure 81: Where red meat purchases are made, by consumers eating more, less, or the same as last year – Eating more, November 2014
- Restaurants provide parents red meat products at competitive prices
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- Figure 82: Where red meat purchases are made, by presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 83: Where red meat purchases are made, by male with presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 84: Where red meat purchases are made, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Higher income focuses on natural/specialty supermarkets and butcher shops
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- Figure 85: Where red meat purchases are made, by household income, November 2014
How Red Meat is Prepared at Home
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- Key points
- Generation Xers more motivated to cook at home than iGeneration/Millennials
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- Figure 86: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender, November 2014
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- Figure 87: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by generation, November 2014
- Figure 88: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by household income, November 2014
The Consumer – Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics want gamier meats, while Whites and Blacks prefer more mainstream products
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- Figure 89: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2014
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- Figure 90: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
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- Figure 91: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
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- Figure 92: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
Appendix – Frequency and Type of Meat Consumption
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- Figure 93: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by region, November 2014
- Figure 94: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Once a month or more, by area, November 2014
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- Figure 95: Frequency of eating red meat at home – Any consumption, by generations, November 2014
- Figure 96: Reasons for eating less red meat, November 2014
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Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Beef
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- Figure 97: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by age, November 2014
- Figure 98: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by generation, November 2014
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Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Pork/Ham
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- Figure 99: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by area, November 2014
- Figure 100: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by presence of children in household, November 2014
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Appendix – Consumption Levels of Red Meats – Lamb
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- Figure 101: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by area, November 2014
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Appendix – Reasons Consumers are Eating Less Red Meat
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- Figure 102: Reasons for eating less red meat, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
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Appendix – Preferred Red Meat Characteristics
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- Figure 103: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Beef, by female with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 104: Important characteristics for red meat purchases – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
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Appendix – Where Consumers Purchase Red Meat
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- Figure 105: Where red meat purchases are made, by gender, November 2014
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Appendix – How Red Meat is Prepared at Home
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- Figure 106: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by area, November 2014
- Figure 107: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by presence of children in household, November 2014
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- Figure 108: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by gender with presence of children in household, November 2014
- Figure 109: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by region, November 2014
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Appendix – Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Figure 110: How red meat is cooked and prepared, by Hispanic origin, November 2014
- Figure 111: Where red meat purchases are made, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
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- Figure 112: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Pork/ham, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
- Figure 113: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Lamb, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
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- Figure 114: Changing behavior: eating more, less, or the same – Beef, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
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Appendix – Other Tables – Market Sizes
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- Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged meat, by segment, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 116: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2009-14
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Appendix – Trade Associations
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- American Association of Meat Processors (AAMP)
- American Meat Institute (AMI)
- Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
- Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
- National Meat Association (NMA)
- Natural Products Association (NPA)
- Private Label Manufacturers Association (PLMA)
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