Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
- Market factors
- Aging population creates challenges for fragrance industry
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- Figure 2: U.S. population, by age, 2013 and 2018
- Economic indicators improving
- The consumer
- Fragrance market impacted by scented line extension items
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- Figure 3: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, any, June/July 2013
- Fragrance is part of daily routine for some, viewed as a special treat for others
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- Figure 4: Top five reasons for wearing fragrance, June/July 2013
- Consumers interested in added benefits and new forms
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- Figure 5: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June/July 2013
- Majority of respondents interested in fragrance box subscriptions
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- Figure 6: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June/July 2013
- Interest in refillable and customized packaging options skews young
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- Figure 7: Interest in packaging, by gender by age, June/July 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What opportunities are there to improve the struggling mass fragrance market?
- Issues
- Insights: Creative retailing, appeal to men, expand selection of new forms
- How can brands extend fragrance beyond an occasional use item?
- Issues
- Insights: Identify new usage occasions, add functionality
- What opportunities are there to better align retail spaces with consumer shopping habits?
- Issues
- Insights: Merchandize by benefit, move outside of the fragrance aisle
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Slow it All Down
- Trend: Mood to Order
- Mintel Futures: Human
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Fragrance category continues to recover
- Future growth predicted, though through a cloud of uncertainty
- Sales and forecast of fragrances
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- Figure 8: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
- Figure 9: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fragrances, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-18
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 10: Total U.S. sales and fan chart forecast of fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Aging population creates challenges
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- Figure 11: Usage of fragrance and scented line extension items, by age, June/July 2013
- Improving economy, wealth disparity benefit prestige sector
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- Figure 12: Household income distribution, 2011
- Multicultural populations represent opportunity
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- Figure 13: Fragrance any usage, by white, black, and Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Scent expands through lower-priced items
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- Figure 14: Body spray launches, by company, 2012-13*
- Scented shower products are most used line extension product
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- Figure 15: Fragrance usage, June-July 2013
- Women, younger consumers drive use of line extension items
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- Figure 16: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
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- Figure 17: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
- Line extension items appeal to budget-conscious consumers
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- Figure 18: Line extension fragrance, any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Women’s fragrances outpacing men’s in terms of sales, share
- Sales of fragrances, by segment
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- Figure 19: Sales of fragrances, segmented by type, 2011 and 2013 (est)
Segment Performance – Women’s Fragrances
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- Key points
- Women’s fragrances on an upward trajectory
- Sales and forecast of women’s fragrances
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- Figure 20: Total U.S. sales and forecast of women’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
Segment Performance – Men’s Fragrances
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- Key points
- Men’s fragrance segment still recovering from recession
- Sales and forecast of men’s fragrances
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- Figure 21: Total U.S. sales and forecast of men’s fragrances, at current prices, 2008-18
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Fragrance sales dominated by other retail channels
- Sales of fragrances, by channel
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- Figure 22: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, 2011 and 2013
- Prestige retailers prospering while mass fragrance market struggles
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- Figure 23: Retail sales of fragrances, by channel, at current prices, 2008-13
Brand Usage
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- Key points
- Old Spice, Axe are most used brands among men
- Young women are using Bath & Body Works and Victoria’s Secret
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- Figure 24: Brands of aftershave and cologne used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
- Figure 25: Brands of perfume/cologne/toilet water used, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
Innovations and Innovators
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- New product launch trends
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- Figure 26: Fragrance product launches, by subcategory, 2008-13*
- Category innovations
- Fragrance subscription boxes
- Natural/vegan fragrances
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- Figure 27: Share of fragrance product launches, by botanical/herbal and ethical claims, 2008-13*
- Nighttime fragrances
- Smell like your favorite…
- …destination
- …dessert
- …mythical or magical creature
- …season
- …university
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Theme: Celebrity endorsements
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- Figure 28: Katy Perry killer queen ad, 2013
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- Figure 29: Taylor Swift Taylor ad, 2013
- Theme: Packaging
- Theme: Sexual attraction
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- Figure 30: Gucci Guilty Black ad, 2013
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- Figure 31: David Beckham Classic photo shoot, 2013
Social Media
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 32: Key brand metrics, fragrance brands, August 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 33: Usage and awareness of selected fragrance brands, July 2013
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 34: Interaction with selected fragrance brands, July 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 35: Online conversations on selected Fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- Where are people talking about fragrance brands?
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- Figure 36: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 37: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
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- Figure 38: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- Brand analysis
- Chanel
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- Figure 39: Chanel social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Victoria’s Secret
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- Figure 40: Victoria’s Secret key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Dolce & Gabbana
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- Figure 41: Dolce & Gabbana key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Ralph Lauren
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- Figure 42: Ralph Lauren key social media indicators, august 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Estée Lauder
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- Figure 43: Estée Lauder key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Calvin Klein
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- Figure 44: Calvin Klein key social media indicators, August 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Usage
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- Key points
- Majority of women use perfume
- Age impacts use of fine fragrance
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- Figure 45: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender, June-July 2013
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- Figure 46: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
- Budget-conscious women turning to other fragrance formats
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- Figure 47: Fine fragrance any usage, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
- Users of Victoria’s Secret, Dolce & Gabbana are an engaged audience
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- Figure 48: Any fragrance usage, by each female brand used, June-July 2013
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- Figure 49: Any fragrance usage, by each male brand used, June-July 2013
- Figure 50: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for women, June-July 2013
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- Figure 51: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by brands for men, June-July 2013
Fragrance Selection
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- Key points
- Sampling influences purchase decisions
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- Figure 52: Fine fragrance selection, by gender, June-July 2013
- Young women more likely to exhibit budget-conscious behavior
- Brands have opportunity to extend advertising efforts among young men
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- Figure 53: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Reasons for Wearing Fragrance
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- Key points
- Women motivated by emotional benefits of wearing fine fragrance
- Men more likely to be occasional users of fine fragrance
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- Figure 54: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
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- Figure 55: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Interest in Product Innovations – Forms/Benefits
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- Key points
- Fragrances for clothing/fabric generate highest level of interest
- New forms and benefits appeal to young category users
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- Figure 56: Interest in new product forms/benefits, June-July 2013
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- Figure 57: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender, June-July 2013
- Figure 58: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and age, June-July 2013
- Multiple-benefit fragrances appeal to budget-conscious consumers
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- Figure 59: Any interest in new product forms/benefits, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
- Characteristics of those interested in hair perfume
- Overview of CHAID analysis
- Opportunity to reach those interested in hair perfume
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- Figure 60: Interest in new fragrance benefits/forms, CHAID Table output, July 2013
Interest in Product Innovations – Retailing Opportunities
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- Key points
- Women enthused by fragrance subscription boxes
- Mobile apps could be opportunity to target young men
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- Figure 61: Interest in retailing opportunities, June-July 2013
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- Figure 62: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender, June-July 2013
- Figure 63: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Interest in Product Innovations – Packaging
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- Key points
- Refillable fragrance bottles appeal to budget-conscious and eco-friendly consumers
- Interest in customized and adorned packaging options skews young
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- Figure 64: Interest in packaging, June-July 2013
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- Figure 65: Any interest in packaging, by gender, June-July 2013
- Figure 66: Any interest in packaging, by gender and age, June-July 2013
Attitudes Toward Fragrance
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- Key points
- Fragrance gifting popular, though some prefer to select their own scent
- Mass retailers may not be viewed as fragrance destinations
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and age, June-July 2013
- Younger respondents experiment and want to learn more, but also confused
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- Figure 68: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender, June-July 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Multicultural consumers are highly involved in the category
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- Figure 69: Fragrance any usage, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Black shoppers are seeking value, more information
- Asian consumers motivated by luxury
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- Figure 70: Fine fragrance selection, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
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- Figure 71: Household income distribution by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2011
- Figure 72: Attitudes toward fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- New benefits, forms, and packaging appeal to multicultural shoppers
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- Figure 73: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
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- Figure 74: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Figure 75: Interest in new product packaging, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 76: Fragrance clusters, June-July 2013
- Group one: Habituals
- Opportunities
- Group two: Basic
- Opportunities
- Group three: Involved
- Opportunities
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 77: Fragrance any usage, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 78: Fine fragrance selection, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 79: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 80: Interest in new product forms/benefits, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 81: Interest in new product retailing opportunities, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 82: Interest in new product packaging, by target clusters, June-July 2013
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- Figure 83: Attitudes toward fragrance, by target clusters, June-July 2013
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 84: Target clusters, by demographic, June-July 2013
- Cluster methodology
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Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Fragrance usage
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- Figure 85: Fragrance, any usage, by household income, June-July 2013
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- Figure 86: Fragrance, regular usage, by gender and age, June-July 2013
- Fine fragrance selection
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- Figure 87: Fine fragrance selection, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
- Reasons for wearing fine fragrance
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- Figure 88: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
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- Figure 89: Reasons for wearing fine fragrance, by race/Hispanic origin, June-July 2013
- Interest in product innovations – retailing opportunities
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- Figure 90: Any interest in retailing opportunities, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
- Attitudes toward fragrance
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward fragrance, by gender and household income, June-July 2013
Appendix – CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 92: Interest in new personal care products – CHAID tree output, July 2013
Appendix – Social Media
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 93: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013
- Figure 94: Brand usage or awareness, June-July 2013 (continued)
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- Figure 95: Chanel usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 96: Estée Lauder usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 97: Victoria’s Secret usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 98: Dolce & Gabbana usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 99: Ralph Lauren usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 100: Calvin Klein usage or awareness, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Activities done
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- Figure 101: Activities done, June-July 2013
- Figure 102: Activities done, June-July 2013 (continued)
- Figure 103: Chanel – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 104: Estée Lauder – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 105: Victoria’s Secret – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 106: Ralph Lauren – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
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- Figure 107: Calvin Klein – Activities done, by demographics, June-July 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 108: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- Figure 109: Online conversations on selected fragrance brands, by page type, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- Figure 110: Types of conversations around fragrance brands, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
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- Figure 111: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by month, July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
- Figure 112: Types of conversations around selected fragrance brands, by page type July 1, 2012-July 1, 2013
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 113: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Unemployment
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- Figure 114: U.S. Unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 115: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 116: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 117: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 118: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
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- Figure 119: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
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- Figure 120: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Trade Associations
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