Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Gluten-free food and beverage sales to reach $15.6 billion in 2016
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- Figure 1: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods and beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
- Strong growth in bread products
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- Figure 2: Retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13 (Top 5)
- Market factors
- Rising incidence of intolerance and health perceptions fuel category growth
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- Figure 3: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
- Key players
- Chobani, General Mills, and Kraft only one quarter of sales
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- Figure 4: Gluten-free product market share, by Top 5 companies, 52 weeks ending June 8, 2013
- The consumer
- Nearly one quarter using gluten-free foods
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- Figure 5: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2013
- Gluten-free bread products, snacks, most consumed
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- Figure 6: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
- Women more concerned about gluten-free labeling
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- Figure 7: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Are concerns about gluten just a passing fad?
- Insight – The demand for gluten-free products is here to stay
- How can gluten-free products continue to broaden their appeal?
- Insight – Target non-celiacs based on their preference for healthy eating
- How will the FDA gluten-free ruling impact the category?
- Insight – Labeling standards will lead to increased trust, easier shopping experience
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Prove It
- Trend: Factory Fear
- Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
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- Figure 8: find me gluten free website
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Consistent growth in gluten-free food and beverage sales
- Sales and forecast of market
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- Figure 9: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 10: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-16
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 11: Total Market sales, forecast, gluten-free foods, beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Rising celiac disease incidence
- Greater competition and broader appeal
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- Figure 12: Number of companies with gluten-free product claims, July 2009-July 2013
- Perception of gluten-free foods as healthier
Competitive Context
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- Gluten-free restaurant options continue to grow
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- Figure 13: Top 5 restaurant menu claims, 2010-13
- Figure 14: Gluten-free ingredient claims by restaurant segments, 2010-13
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- Figure 15: Carrabba’s Gluten Free Menu
- Figure 16: Jason’s Deli Gluten-Sensitive Menu
- The cross-contamination risk may not be worth it
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- Figure 17: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Steady growth across segments
- Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by segment
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- Figure 18: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13
- Beverages
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- Figure 19: Crispin Cider, television ad, 2012
- Sales of beverages
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- Figure 20: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free beverages, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
- Dairy and dairy alternatives
- Sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
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- Figure 21: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free dairy/dairy alternatives, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
- Prepared foods
- Sales of prepared foods
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- Figure 22: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free prepared foods, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
- Bread products, cookies, and snacks
- Sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
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- Figure 23: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free bread products/cookies/snacks, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Traditional, natural stores most popular
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- Figure 24: Gluten-free food retail channels, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 25: Gluten-free food retail channels, by region, June 2013
- Most growth in natural channel
- Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by channel
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- Figure 26: Sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Chobani, General Mills, major brands in category
- Largest growth for PepsiCo, smallest for Danone, Kraft
- Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages
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- Figure 27: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Beverages
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- Key points
- Juices, smoothies, and mixes lead beverage sales
- Consumers go nuts for almond milk
- Manufacturer sales of beverages
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- Figure 28: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free beverages, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Dairy and Dairy Alternatives
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- Key points
- The Greek appeal
- Kefir gaining traction
- Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
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- Figure 29: Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Prepared Foods
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- Key points
- Amy’s Kitchen maintains its lead
- Manufacturer sales of prepared foods
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- Figure 30: Manufacturer sales of prepared foods, 2012 and 2013
Brand Share – Bread Products, Cookies, and Snacks
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- Key points
- Chips are hip
- Gluten-free specific brands represent smaller share
- Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
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- Figure 31: Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks, 2012 and 2013
Innovations and Innovators
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- Growth in private label
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- Figure 32: Gluten-free food products, July 2009 - July 2013
- Figure 33: Top 10 Gluten-Free companies, by new products, January 2012- July 2013
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- Figure 34: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, July 2009 -July 2013
- Label overload
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- Figure 35: Michelob Ultra Light Cider Print Ad
- Figure 36: Gluten-free product penetration by category, January 2009–July 2013
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- Figure 37: Top 5 gluten-free food product categories, January 2012-July 2013
- Repackaging or reformulating with gluten-free claim
- Pizza on the rise
- Baking up gluten-free mixes
- The healthy connection
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- Figure 38: Top 10 gluten-free food product claims, January 2012 - July 2013
- Figure 39: Better’n Peanut Butter Print Ad
- Figure 40: Kellogg’s Rice Krispies Print Ad
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Brand analysis – Chex (General Mills)
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- Figure 41: Brand analysis of chex, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 42: Chex website, 2013
- TV presence
- Print and other
- Brand analysis – Betty Crocker (General Mills)
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- Figure 43: Brand analysis of Betty Crocker, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 44: Betty Crocker website, 2013
- Figure 45: Live Better America website, 2013
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- Figure 46: GlutenFreely Tweet, 2013
- Brand analysis – Glutino
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- Figure 47: Brand analysis of Glutino, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 48: Glutino website, 2013
- Figure 49: Glutino Tweet, 2013
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- Figure 50: Glutino Facebook Post, 2013
- Figure 51: Glutino blog, 2013
- Print and other
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- Figure 52: Glutino macaroni & cheese, 2013
- Brand analysis – Amy’s Kitchen
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- Figure 53: Brand analysis of brand, 2011
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 54: Brand website, 2013
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- Figure 55: Amy’s Kitchen Twitter Post, 2013
- Brand analysis – Bob’s Red Mill
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- Figure 56: Brand analysis of bob’s red mill, 2013
- Online initiatives
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- Figure 57: Bob’s red mill website, 2013
- Figure 58: Bob’s red mill blog, 2013
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- Figure 59: Brand Tweet, 2013
Gluten-Free Food Usage
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- Key points
- Millennials lead in consumption
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- Figure 60: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by age, June 2013
- Figure 61: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
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- Figure 62: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by gender and age, June 2013
- Bread- and grain-based foods most popular
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- Figure 63: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 64: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
Purchase Habits and Motivations
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- Key points
- No diagnosis needed
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- Figure 65: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
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- Figure 66: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by region, June 2013
- Gluten-free’s health halo
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- Figure 67: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
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- Figure 68: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
- In-store assistance most influential on purchase
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- Figure 69: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
Attitudes toward Gluten-Free Foods
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- Key points
- Women more concerned about product labeling
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- Figure 70: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 71: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
- Celiac sufferers more trusting of product claims, outside regulation
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- Figure 72: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Non-whites more likely to be eating gluten-free foods
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- Figure 73: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
- Figure 74: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
- Blacks more likely to eat gluten-free without celiac disease diagnosis
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- Figure 75: Gluten-free foods consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
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- Figure 76: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by race, June 2013
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- Figure 77: Diet & Health opinions, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
- Blacks prefer Walmart for gluten-free items
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- Figure 78: Gluten-free food retail channels, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
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- Figure 79: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 80: Gluten-free clusters, June 2013
- Group one – Wheat Wary
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Group two – Gluten-free Skeptics
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Group three – Gluten-free Apathetic
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 81: Target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 82: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 83: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 84: Gluten-free foods consumed, by target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 85: Gluten-free food retail channels, by target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 86: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
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- Figure 87: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 88: Target clusters, by demographic, June 2013
- Cluster methodology
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- Figure 89: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
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Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 90: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Unemployment
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- Figure 91: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 92: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 93: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
- Food cost pressures
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- Figure 94: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
- Obesity
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- Figure 95: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
- Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
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- Figure 96: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 97: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 98: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
- Shifting U.S. demographics
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- Figure 99: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
- Figure 100: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 101: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
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- Figure 102: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by generations, June 2013
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- Figure 103: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
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- Figure 104: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
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- Figure 105: Gluten-free foods consumed, by gluten-free food retail channels, June 2013
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- Figure 106: Reasons for watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 107: Reasons for watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 108: Reasons for watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 109: Reasons for watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 110: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 111: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 112: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 113: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 114: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by age, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 115: Health & Medicine opinions, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
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- Figure 116: Diet & Health opinions, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
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Appendix – Trade Associations
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