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Gluten-free Foods - US - September 2013

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Gluten-free food and beverage sales to reach $15.6 billion in 2016
Figure 1: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of gluten-free foods and beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
Strong growth in bread products
Figure 2: Retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13 (Top 5)
Market factors
Rising incidence of intolerance and health perceptions fuel category growth
Figure 3: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
Key players
Chobani, General Mills, and Kraft only one quarter of sales
Figure 4: Gluten-free product market share, by Top 5 companies, 52 weeks ending June 8, 2013
The consumer
Nearly one quarter using gluten-free foods
Figure 5: Consumption of gluten-free foods, June 2013
Gluten-free bread products, snacks, most consumed
Figure 6: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
Women more concerned about gluten-free labeling
Figure 7: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Are concerns about gluten just a passing fad?
Insight – The demand for gluten-free products is here to stay
How can gluten-free products continue to broaden their appeal?
Insight – Target non-celiacs based on their preference for healthy eating
How will the FDA gluten-free ruling impact the category?
Insight – Labeling standards will lead to increased trust, easier shopping experience
TREND APPLICATIONS
Trend: Prove It
Trend: Factory Fear
Mintel Futures: Access Anything, Anywhere
Figure 8: find me gluten free website
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Consistent growth in gluten-free food and beverage sales
Sales and forecast of market
Figure 9: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
Figure 10: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-16
Fan chart forecast
Figure 11: Total Market sales, forecast, gluten-free foods, beverages, at current prices, 2011-16
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Rising celiac disease incidence
Greater competition and broader appeal
Figure 12: Number of companies with gluten-free product claims, July 2009-July 2013
Perception of gluten-free foods as healthier
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Gluten-free restaurant options continue to grow
Figure 13: Top 5 restaurant menu claims, 2010-13
Figure 14: Gluten-free ingredient claims by restaurant segments, 2010-13
Figure 15: Carrabba’s Gluten Free Menu
Figure 16: Jason’s Deli Gluten-Sensitive Menu
The cross-contamination risk may not be worth it
Figure 17: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Steady growth across segments
Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by segment
Figure 18: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free foods, by segment, at current prices, 2011-13
 BEVERAGES
Figure 19: Crispin Cider, television ad, 2012
Sales of beverages
Figure 20: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free beverages, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
Dairy and dairy alternatives
Sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
Figure 21: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free dairy/dairy alternatives, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
Prepared foods
Sales of prepared foods
Figure 22: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free prepared foods, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
Bread products, cookies, and snacks
Sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
Figure 23: Conventional channel, natural supermarket, and specialty/gourmet retailer sales of gluten-free bread products/cookies/snacks, by category, at current prices, 2011-13
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Traditional, natural stores most popular
Figure 24: Gluten-free food retail channels, by gender, June 2013
Figure 25: Gluten-free food retail channels, by region, June 2013
Most growth in natural channel
Sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, by channel
Figure 26: Sales of gluten-free foods/beverages, by channel, at current prices, 2011-13
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Chobani, General Mills, major brands in category
Largest growth for PepsiCo, smallest for Danone, Kraft
Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages
Figure 27: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free foods and beverages, 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – BEVERAGES
Key points
Juices, smoothies, and mixes lead beverage sales
Consumers go nuts for almond milk
Manufacturer sales of beverages
Figure 28: Manufacturer sales of gluten-free beverages, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – DAIRY AND DAIRY ALTERNATIVES
Key points
The Greek appeal
Kefir gaining traction
Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives
Figure 29: Manufacturer sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – PREPARED FOODS
Key points
Amy’s Kitchen maintains its lead
Manufacturer sales of prepared foods
Figure 30: Manufacturer sales of prepared foods, 2012 and 2013
BRAND SHARE – BREAD PRODUCTS, COOKIES, AND SNACKS
Key points
Chips are hip
Gluten-free specific brands represent smaller share
Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks
Figure 31: Manufacturer sales of bread products, cookies, and snacks, 2012 and 2013
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Growth in private label
Figure 32: Gluten-free food products, July 2009 - July 2013
Figure 33: Top 10 Gluten-Free companies, by new products, January 2012- July 2013
Figure 34: Private label share of gluten-free food product launches, July 2009 -July 2013
Label overload
Figure 35: Michelob Ultra Light Cider Print Ad
Figure 36: Gluten-free product penetration by category, January 2009–July 2013
Figure 37: Top 5 gluten-free food product categories, January 2012-July 2013
Repackaging or reformulating with gluten-free claim
Pizza on the rise
Baking up gluten-free mixes
The healthy connection
Figure 38: Top 10 gluten-free food product claims, January 2012 - July 2013
Figure 39: Better’n Peanut Butter Print Ad
Figure 40: Kellogg’s Rice Krispies Print Ad
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Brand analysis – Chex (General Mills)
Figure 41: Brand analysis of chex, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 42: Chex website, 2013
TV presence
Print and other
Brand analysis – Betty Crocker (General Mills)
Figure 43: Brand analysis of Betty Crocker, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 44: Betty Crocker website, 2013
Figure 45: Live Better America website, 2013
Figure 46: GlutenFreely Tweet, 2013
Brand analysis – Glutino
Figure 47: Brand analysis of Glutino, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 48: Glutino website, 2013
Figure 49: Glutino Tweet, 2013
Figure 50: Glutino Facebook Post, 2013
Figure 51: Glutino blog, 2013
Print and other
Figure 52: Glutino macaroni & cheese, 2013
Brand analysis – Amy’s Kitchen
Figure 53: Brand analysis of brand, 2011
Online initiatives
Figure 54: Brand website, 2013
Figure 55: Amy’s Kitchen Twitter Post, 2013
Brand analysis – Bob’s Red Mill
Figure 56: Brand analysis of bob’s red mill, 2013
Online initiatives
Figure 57: Bob’s red mill website, 2013
Figure 58: Bob’s red mill blog, 2013
Figure 59: Brand Tweet, 2013
GLUTEN-FREE FOOD USAGE
Key points
Millennials lead in consumption
Figure 60: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by age, June 2013
Figure 61: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
Figure 62: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by gender and age, June 2013
Bread- and grain-based foods most popular
Figure 63: Top 5 gluten-free foods consumed, by gender, June 2013
Figure 64: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
PURCHASE HABITS AND MOTIVATIONS
Key points
No diagnosis needed
Figure 65: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
Figure 66: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by region, June 2013
Gluten-free’s health halo
Figure 67: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods other than intolerance/sensitivity, June 2013
Figure 68: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
In-store assistance most influential on purchase
Figure 69: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by gender and age, June 2013
ATTITUDES TOWARD GLUTEN-FREE FOODS
Key points
Women more concerned about product labeling
Figure 70: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
Figure 71: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
Celiac sufferers more trusting of product claims, outside regulation
Figure 72: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Non-whites more likely to be eating gluten-free foods
Figure 73: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
Figure 74: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2013
Blacks more likely to eat gluten-free without celiac disease diagnosis
Figure 75: Gluten-free foods consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Figure 76: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by race, June 2013
Figure 77: Diet & Health opinions, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
Blacks prefer Walmart for gluten-free items
Figure 78: Gluten-free food retail channels, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
Figure 79: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2013
CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Figure 80: Gluten-free clusters, June 2013
Group one – Wheat Wary
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Group two – Gluten-free Skeptics
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Group three – Gluten-free Apathetic
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 81: Target clusters, June 2013
Figure 82: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 83: Consumption of gluten-free foods in past or future, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 84: Gluten-free foods consumed, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 85: Gluten-free food retail channels, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 86: Influential factors for purchasing gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
Figure 87: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 88: Target clusters, by demographic, June 2013
Cluster methodology
Figure 89: Any agreement with attitudes toward gluten-free foods, by target clusters, June 2013
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer confidence
Figure 90: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
Unemployment
Figure 91: U.S. Unemployment Rate, by month, 2002-13
Figure 92: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, 2007-13
Figure 93: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Food cost pressures
Figure 94: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2011-14
Obesity
Figure 95: American adults by weight category as determined by body mass index (BMI), 2008-June 20, 2013
Childhood and teen obesity – highest in decades
Figure 96: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
Racial, ethnic population growth
Figure 97: U.S. population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
Figure 98: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Shifting U.S. demographics
Figure 99: U.S. population, by age, 2008-18
Figure 100: U.S. households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 101: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by gender, June 2013
Figure 102: Consumption of gluten-free foods, by generations, June 2013
Figure 103: Reasons for eating gluten-free foods, by household income, June 2013
Figure 104: Gluten-free foods consumed, by reasons for eating gluten-free foods, June 2013
Figure 105: Gluten-free foods consumed, by gluten-free food retail channels, June 2013
Figure 106: Reasons for watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 107: Reasons for watching your diet, by age, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 108: Reasons for watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 109: Reasons for watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 110: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 111: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 112: Food products purchased when watching your diet, by household income, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 113: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 114: Ailments diagnosed within the last 12 months, by age, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 115: Health & Medicine opinions, by gender, January 2012-March 2013
Figure 116: Diet & Health opinions, by gender and age, January 2012-March 2013
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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