Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Retail sales of alcohol continue to grow, but on-premise sales are closing the gap
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of alcoholic beverages, at current prices, 2007-17
- New products fuel beer’s dominance, while launches help wine challenge spirits
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of alcohol for home-based consumption, by segment, at current prices, 2007-17
- Market factors
- Unemployment, health concerns fuel disinterest in alcohol among some
- As consumer confidence trends upward, will it also increase desires to go out?
- Hispanic population growth could translate to continued positive at-home sales
- Retail channels
- Liquor stores lead sales, other retail channel shows growth
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- Figure 3: Market share of U.S. retail sales of alcohol at home, by channel, at current prices, 2012
- Key players
- Wine leads in new product introductions, but beer not far behind
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- Figure 4: U.S. alcoholic beverage launches, by sub-category, March 2012-March 2013
- The consumer
- Cross-category consumption not limited to on-premise
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- Figure 5: Changes in home-based consumption of alcohol, by category net consumption, February 2013
- Regardless of age, alcohol cutbacks influenced by cost, health concerns
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- Figure 6: Top 3 reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by generation, February 2013
- Hispanics most likely to report home-based consumption of range of alcohol
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- Figure 7: Any home-based consumption of alcohol, by category net, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2013
- Cost more influential for drinking alcohol at home than relaxation or entertaining
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- Figure 8: Attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by generation, February 2013
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can marketers give consumers reasons to drink at home?
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- Figure 9: Maker’s Mark, television ad, 2012
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- Figure 10: Pinnacle Vodka, television ad, 2012
- Is there potential to balance on- and off-premise sales and appeal?
- How do emerging segments or new products achieve retail sales?
- What can be done to stop consumers from cutting back on alcohol?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Once related only to wine, food pairing suggestions expand
- Freezable cocktails, make-at-home kits take aim at on-premise favorites
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- Figure 11: Top beverage preparation method for alcoholic beverages on-premise, Q4 2012
- Extend occasions for at-home drinking through relaxation message
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- Figure 12: Chateau Ste. Michelle print ad, October 2012
- Promote local as part of the home-based drinking experience
Trend Applications
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- Trend: The Nouveau Poor
- Trend: Simple Balance for Health
- Mintel Futures: Generation Next
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Off-premise sales continue to show steady growth through 2017
- Sales and forecast of retail sales of alcohol for home-based consumption
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- Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of alcohol for home-based consumption, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of alcohol for home-based consumption, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of alcoholic beverages for home-based consumption, at current prices, 2007-17
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Desire to decrease alcohol consumption could lead to sales declines
- Uptick in consumer economic confidence could boost on-premise sales
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- Figure 16: Restaurant Performance Index, March 29, 2013
- Maintain home-based preference among Hispanics, non-white drinkers
Competitive Context
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- The experience driving factor for on-premise alcohol consumption
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- Figure 17: Changes in behavior with at-home alcohol consumption, February 2013
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- Figure 18: Top beverages, by type, in buffets, chain restaurants, independents, top 100 chain restaurants, top chefs, fourth quarter 2012
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Beer, wine gain share as consumers stick with at-home drinking
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- Figure 19: Total U.S. retail sales of alcohol for home-based consumption, by segment, at current prices, 2010 and 2012
- Annual expenditures on at-home alcohol defy recessionary struggles
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- Figure 20: Annual expenditures on alcohol for at-home consumption per adult aged 21 or older, by segment, at current prices, 2007-12
- Expanding variety helps beer maintain lead as top retail seller
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- Figure 21: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of beer for home-based consumption, at current prices, 2007-17
- Steady growth in spirits belies the segment’s fast pace of innovation
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- Figure 22: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of spirits* for home-based consumption, at current prices, 2007-17
- Cocktail culture also boosts market for mixers
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of cocktail mixes, at current prices, 2009-12
- Wine the fastest-growing category, but remains the smallest
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- Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of wine for home-based consumption, at current prices, 2007-17
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Liquor stores maintain dominance in off-premise alcohol sales
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- Figure 25: Total U.S. retail sales of alcohol at home, by channel, at current prices, 2007-12
- Warehouse, specialty stores find niche with higher-income consumers
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- Figure 26: Retail channel preferences for alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by household income, February 2013
- Specialty channel offers shoppers more than favorite brand, low prices
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- Figure 27: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by specialty beverage store purchases, February 2013
- Brand or type favored regardless of household income
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- Figure 28: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by household income, February 2013
- Young women more influenced by low price, buzz than men
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- Figure 29: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
Innovations and Innovators
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- Wine leads new product releases at retail
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- Figure 30: U.S. alcoholic beverage launches, by sub-category, March 2012-March 2013
- Figure 31: U.S. alcoholic beverage launches, by launch type, March 2012-March 2013
- Hybrid products could appeal to surge of cross-category drinkers
- Dessert-inspired flavors add another consumption opportunity
- Packaging with intrigue, multiple uses could draw in home drinkers
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Brand analysis: Smirnoff and Baileys
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- Figure 32: Bailey’s and Smirnoff, television ad, 2012
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- Figure 33: Bailey’s print ad, December 2012
- Figure 34: Smirnoff print ad, December 2012
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- Figure 35: Smirnoff print ad, December 2012
- Brand analysis: Budweiser and Bud Light
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- Figure 36: Bud Light, television ad, 2013
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- Figure 37: Budweiser, television ad, 2013
- Brand analysis: Skinnygirl
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- Figure 38: Skinny Girl, television ad, 2012
Changes in At-Home Alcohol Consumption
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- Key points
- Cross-category consumption popular when it comes to at-home drinking
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- Figure 39: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by home-based consumption of alcohol (net), February 2013
- Wine sees uptick, white spirits decline in at-home drinking occasions
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- Figure 40: Changes in home-based consumption of alcohol, February 2013
- Imported beer, FMBs lead segments suffering from Millennial attrition
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- Figure 41: Reduced home-based consumption of alcoholic beverages compared to previous year, by generations, February 2012
- Older consumers less open to new drinks, unfamiliar with market
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- Figure 42: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
- Premium brands should appeal to high-income home drinkers
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- Figure 43: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by household income, February 2013
- Family-friendly gatherings an option to increase parental consumption
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- Figure 44: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by marital status and presence of children in household, February 2013
- Couples gatherings an at-home consumption occasion opportunity
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- Figure 45: Any home-based consumption of alcohol, by marital/relationship status, February 2013
Reasons for Reductions in At-Home Drinking
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- Key points
- Expense, calories lead all respondents, even Millennials, to cut back
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- Figure 46: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by generation, February 2013
- Regardless of alcohol consumed, cost and health impact key issues
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- Figure 47: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by home-based consumption of alcohol, February 2013
- Younger women concerned with calories, older men with health
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- Figure 48: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
- Health a concern for lower- to middle-income respondents
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- Figure 49: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by household income, February 2013
At-Home Drinking by Type and Occasion
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- Key points
- Drinking at own home most popular location for beer, spirits fans
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- Figure 50: Locations where beer is consumed, by age, August 2011-August 2012
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- Figure 51: Locations where spirits are consumed, by age, August 2011-August 2012
- Women aged 21-34 are in the lead as own-home wine consumers
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- Figure 52: Locations where wine is consumed, by gender and age, August 2011-August 2012
- Younger consumers should be introduced to weeknight moderation
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- Figure 53: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by gender and age, February 2013
- Married consumers more likely to drink at own home, singles go out
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- Figure 54: Establishments where alcohol is consumed, by marital/relationship status, August 2011-August 2012
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- Figure 55: Establishments where beer is consumed, by marital/relationship status, August 2011-August 2012
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- Figure 56: Establishments where liquor is consumed, by marital/relationship status, August 2011-August 2012
- Respondents with children associate drinking with socializing
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- Figure 57: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by gender and presence of children in household, February 2013
- Spirits, wine able to appeal for nontraditional drinking occasions
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- Figure 58: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by alcohol segments, February 2013
- Hard cider finds appeal among curious drinkers
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- Figure 59: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by home-based consumption of alcohol, February 2013
At-Home Drinking Audiences and Motivations
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- Key points
- Women more likely to drink with others, half of older men drink solo
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- Figure 60: Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, by gender and age, February 2013
- Meals, multitasking lead occasions for solo drinkers
- Affordability is an advantage for middle-aged, older consumers
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- Figure 61: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
- Relaxation fuels some at-home drinking for younger consumers
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- Figure 62: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
- Young women more apt to try new brands, beverages
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- Figure 63: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
- Half of adults from lowest-income households report drinking alone
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- Figure 64: Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, by household income, February 2013
- Solo drinkers also are social drinkers, and vice versa
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- Figure 65: Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, by Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, February 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin – Changes in At-Home Alcohol Consumption
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- Key points
- Hispanics lead at-home consumption across range of categories
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- Figure 66: Any home-based consumption of alcohol, by race and Hispanic origin, February 2013
- But Hispanics overindex in terms of reducing alcohol consumption
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- Figure 67: Reduced home-based consumption of alcohol compared to last year, by Hispanic origin, February 2013
- Other race, Hispanics shop for alcohol in a variety of channels
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- Figure 68: Retail channel preferences for alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
- Brand, low price much closer in purchase motivators for nonwhites
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- Figure 69: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2013
Race and Hispanic Origin – Occasions and Locations
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- Key points
- Black consumers embrace beer—on their own home turf
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- Figure 70: Establishments where alcohol is consumed, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-August 2012
- Hispanics’ at-home drinking seemingly determined by age
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- Figure 71: Establishments where beer is consumed, by Hispanics, by gender and age, August 2011-August 2012
- Nonwhite consumers as likely to report home-based wine drinking
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- Figure 72: Locations where wine is consumed, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-August 2012
- Lower-income blacks, higher-income Hispanics drink wine at home
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- Figure 73: Locations where wine is consumed, by race and Hispanic origin in household income, August 2011-August 2012
- Hispanic women likely to drink wine at someone else’s home
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- Figure 74: Locations where wine is consumed, by Hispanics, by gender and age, August 2011-August 2012
- Other race respondents are more fond of spirits than counterparts
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- Figure 75: Establishments where liquor is consumed, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2011-August 2012
- Lower-income Hispanics prefer to drink spirits in their own homes
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- Figure 76: Establishments where liquor is consumed, by household income of Hispanics, August 2011-August 2012
Cluster Analysis
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- Be Seen Socializers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Only In Moderation
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Up For Anything
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 77: Target clusters, February 2013
- Figure 78: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by target clusters, February 2013
- Figure 79: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by target clusters, February 2013
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- Figure 80: Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, by target clusters, February 2013
- Figure 81: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by target clusters, February 2013
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- Figure 82: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by target clusters, February 2013
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 83: Target clusters, by demographic, February 2013
- Cluster methodology
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- Figure 84: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by target clusters, February 2013
Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Unemployment
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- Figure 85: U.S. unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 86: U.S. Unemployment and under-employment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 87: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
- Obesity
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- Figure 88: U.S. Obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 89: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Racial, ethnic population growth
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- Figure 90: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 91: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Segment performance
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- Figure 92: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of beer for home-based consumption, at inflation-adjusted prices (base year 2012), 2007-17
- Figure 93: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of spirits* for home-based consumption, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 94: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of wine for home-based consumption, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Retail channels
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- Figure 95: Retail channel preferences for alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by generation, February 2013
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- Figure 96: Retail channel preferences for alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by gender and age, February 2013
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- Figure 97: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by retail channel preferences for alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, February 2013
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- Figure 98: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by generation, February 2013
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- Figure 99: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by gender and presence of children in household, February 2013
- Changes in at-home alcohol consumption
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- Figure 100: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by gender and age, February 2013
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- Figure 101: Any home-based consumption of alcohol (net), by generations, February 2013
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- Figure 102: Increased home-based consumption on alcohol compared to last year, by generations, February 2013
- Reasons for reductions in at-home drinking
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- Figure 103: Less home-based consumption of alcohol compared to last year, by gender and age, February 2013
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- Figure 104: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by household income, February 2013
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- Figure 105: Reasons for reducing home-based alcohol consumption, by parents with children in household, February 2013
- At-home drinking occasions, locations, and motivations
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- Figure 106: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by generations, February 2013
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- Figure 107: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by household income, February 2013
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- Figure 108: Home-based alcohol consumption occasions, by Home-based alcohol consumption audiences, February 2013
- Hard cider research—consumption and preferences
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- Figure 109: Changes in Hard cider consumption, by any home-based consumption of beer and hard cider, February 2013
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- Figure 110: Changes in Hard cider consumption, by any home-based consumption of wine, spirits, flavored alcoholic beverages, and non-alcoholic cocktail mixers, February 2013
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- Figure 111: Factors influencing alcohol purchases for home-based consumption, by home-based consumption of alcohol, February 2013
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- Figure 112: Agreement with attitudes toward home-based alcohol consumption, by home-based consumption of alcohol, February 2013
Appendix – Trade Associations
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