Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Advertising creative
- Acronyms and terms
- Acronyms
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Ice cream and frozen novelty market improves performance
- Sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2007-12
- Ice cream and frozen novelty market poised for growth
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 2: Fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2007-17
- Ice cream is the strongest segment
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- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2012 (est.)
- Market factors
- Economy shows mixed signs
- Demographic prospects balance
- Retail channels
- Supermarkets lead sales
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by supermarkets and other retailers, 2010 and 2012
- The consumer
- Flavor trumps all, but price is also important
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- Figure 5: Ice cream and frozen novelty purchase drivers, by percentage, March 2012
- Fat, sugar, and calories lead the list of considerations
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- Figure 6: Nutritional attributes of importance, by age, March 2012
- Trends lean toward frozen yogurt and non-dairy ice cream
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- Figure 7: Consumption shifts in the past year, March 2012
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- What factors may hinder the market?
- Which product claims resonate with consumers and which don’t?
- What are the product trends in the natural supermarket channel that other channels could focus on?
- Which consumer demographics are underusers?
- What motivates consumers to buy a particular ice cream or frozen novelty product?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Go with the flow
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- Figure 8: Consumption shifts in the past year, March 2012
- Innovate with Asian flavors
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- Figure 9: Ice cream consumption shifts in the past year, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Millennials and single-serve portions go together
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- Figure 10: Where (outside the home) frozen novelties are consumed, by age, March 2012
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Accentuate the Negative
- Trend: Carnivore, Herbivore...Locavore
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Segments perform well to lift the market in 2012
- Sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of market, at current prices, 2007-17
- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart methodology
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 13: Fan chart forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2007-17
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Economic factors
- Dairy prices fall while vanilla costs rise
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- Figure 14: FAO milk price index, May 2011-May 2012
- Unemployment rates waver
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- Figure 15: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-April 2012
- Consumer sentiment going up
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- Figure 16: Consumer sentiment, MARCH 2007-April 2012
- Bernanke summarizes the economy
- Demographic factors
- Shifting age dynamics important to study
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- Figure 17: Population by generation, 2011
- Figure 18: Population by age, 2006-16
- Expanding Asian population is positive for the market
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- Figure 19: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
- Decline in households with children negatively influences the market
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- Figure 20: Households by presence of children, 2001-2011
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Private label steps up
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- Figure 21: Nestlé S.A. and private label FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
- Foodservice ramps up ice cream
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Ice cream sales are strong; meanwhile, yogurt is a category to watch
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 22: Total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2010-12
Segment Performance—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- The largest segment is back on track for growth
- Crossing the dessert line
- Sales and forecast of ice cream
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- Figure 23: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ice cream at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Convenience keeps frozen novelties relevant
- Sales and forecast of frozen novelties
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- Figure 24: Total U.S. sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Frozen Yogurt
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- Key points
- Health halo spurs growth in the frozen yogurt segment
- Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt
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- Figure 25: Total U.S. sales and forecast of frozen yogurt, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance—Sherbet, Sorbet, and Ices
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- Key points
- Lack of innovation keeps sherbet, sorbet, and ices struggling
- Sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices
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- Figure 26: Total U.S. sales and forecast of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current prices, 2007-17
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarket sales increase but lose share to other retailers
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel
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- Figure 27: Total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, 2010 and 2012
- Supermarket sales back on track for growth
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- Figure 28: Supermarket/food stores sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2006-11
- Other retailers show a strong rebound
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- Figure 29: Other retailers* sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Sales growth in the natural supermarkets channel is strong
- Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties in the natural channel
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- Figure 30: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2009-11*
- Figure 31: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
- Natural channel sales of ice cream and frozen novelties by segment
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- Figure 32: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
- Most leading companies experience growth
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- Figure 33: Selected natural supermarket brand sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2009 and 2011*
- Natural channel sales of ice cream and frozen novelties by organic
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- Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by organic, 2009 and 2011*
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Nestlé leads, but loses sales
- Private label is growing strong
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- Figure 35: Purchase drivers, March 2012
- Unilever grows sales, but not market share
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- Figure 36: Manufacturer FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Revolving product launches keep the segment exciting
- Some brands performed well
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- Figure 37: Selected FDMx brand sales of ice cream, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Frozen Novelties
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- Key points
- Private label takes a back seat
- Where the action is
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- Figure 38: Selected FDMx brand sales of frozen novelties, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Frozen Yogurt
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- Key points
- Private label catches up to brand leader Dreyer’s
- New launches turn to gold
- It’s all Greek
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- Figure 39: Selected FDMx brand sales of frozen yogurt, 2011 and 2012
Brand Share—Sherbet, Sorbet, and Ices
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- Key points
- Private label rules sherbet, sorbet, and ices
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- Figure 40: Selected FDMx brand sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, 2011 and 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Dairy-based category leads in product innovation
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- Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelty product launches, by subcategory, 2008-12*
- Product claims must be chosen carefully
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- Figure 42: Ice cream and frozen novelty product launches, by top 15 claims, 2008-12*
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- Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelty product launches, by top 15 flavors, 2008-12*
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- Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelty product launches, by top 10 companies, 2008-12*
- Product innovations
- Greek yogurt continues its ride up
- Non-dairy faux ice cream is vegan friendly
- Fruit makes it all better
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- Television ads
- Häagen-Dazs
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- Figure 45: Häagen-Dazs/Ice Cream, television ad, 2012
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- Figure 46: Häagen-Dazs/Snacking Cups, television ad, 2011
- Blue Bell
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- Figure 47: Blue Bell/Ice Cream, television ad, 2011
- Dove
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- Figure 48: Dove/Ice Cream Bar, television ad, 2012
- Klondike
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- Figure 49: Klondike/Choco Taco, television ad, 2012
- Popsicle
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- Figure 50: Popsicle/New Yosicle, television ad, 2012
- Digital opportunities
- Häagen-Dazs masters digital
- Wheels on the ground
- Game on for private label
Household Usage
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- Key points
- Trended usage
- Household and adult
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- Figure 51: Ice cream and sherbet (for eating at home)—household usage, January 2007-November 2011
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- Figure 52: Frozen novelty treats (for eating at home)—household usage, January 2007-November 2011
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- Figure 53: Frozen yogurt usage, January 2007-November 2011
- Teens (aged 12-17)
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- Figure 54: Ice cream (for eating at home) usage among teens (aged 12-17), January 2007-November 2011
- Kids (aged 6-11)
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- Figure 55: Ice cream usage among kids (aged 6-11), January 2007-November 2011
- Ice cream and frozen novelties are the most popular segments
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- Figure 56: Household usage of frozen treats, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 57: Household usage of frozen treats, by household income, March 2012
Purchase Drivers
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- Key points
- Price is a leading purchase driver
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- Figure 58: Purchase drivers, by gender, March 2012
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- Figure 59: Purchase drivers, by age, March 2012
Consumption Behavior
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- Key points
- When and where ice cream and frozen novelties are eaten
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- Figure 60: Consumption occasions/When and where, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 61: Consumption occasions/When and where, by presence of children in household, March 2012
- Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack
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- Figure 62: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by gender, March 2012
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- Figure 63: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 64: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by presence of children in household, March 2012
- Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 65: Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties, by age, March 2012
Outlets Where Consumers Buy Frozen Treats
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- Key points
- Grocery stores are the primary purchase locale
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- Figure 66: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, March 2012
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- Figure 67: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, most often, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 68: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, also buy, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 69: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, most often, by household income, March 2012
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- Figure 70: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, also buy, by household income, March 2012
Attitudes and Preferences
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- Key points
- Fat and sugar are biggest areas of interest
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- Figure 71: Attributes of importance, by gender, March 2012
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- Figure 72: Attributes of importance, by age, March 2012
- Figure 73: Attributes of importance, by household income, March 2012
- Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes
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- Figure 74: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by age, March 2012
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- Figure 75: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by household income, March 2012
Consumption Shifts in the Past Year
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- Key points
- Frozen yogurt and non-dairy ice cream are trending upward
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- Figure 76: Consumption shifts in the past year, March 2012
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- Figure 77: Consumption shifts in the past year, by top four types, by age, March 2012
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Purchase drivers
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- Figure 78: Purchase drivers, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Household usage
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- Figure 79: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Attitudes and preferences
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- Figure 80: Attributes of importance, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Behavior and attitudes
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- Figure 81: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Consumption behavior
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- Figure 82: Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Consumption shifts in the past year
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- Figure 83: Consumption shifts in the past year, by top four types, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
Cluster Analysis
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- Ho Hums
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Controlled Connoisseurs
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Let-me-at-its
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Pantry People
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 84: Clusters, March 2012
- Figure 85: Household usage of frozen treats, by clusters, March 2012
- Figure 86: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, most often, by clusters, March 2012
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- Figure 87: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, also buy, by clusters, March 2012
- Figure 88: Purchase drivers, by clusters, March 2012
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- Figure 89: Consumption behavior, by clusters, March 2012
- Figure 90: Consumption behavior, by clusters, March 2012
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- Figure 91: Attributes of importance, by clusters, March 2012
- Figure 92: Consumption shifts in the past year, by clusters, March 2012
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- Figure 93: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by clusters, March 2012
- Figure 94: Consumption behavior, by clusters, March 2012
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 95: Clusters, by demographic, March 2012
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Usage of frozen treats
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- Figure 96: Household usage of frozen treats, by custom groups, March 2012
- Purchase drivers
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- Figure 97: Purchase drivers, by custom groups, March 2012
- When and where
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- Figure 98: When and where, by custom groups, March 2012
- Attributes of importance
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- Figure 99: Attributes of importance, by custom groups, March 2012
- Behavior and attitudes
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- Figure 100: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by custom groups, March 2012
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- Figure 101: Consumption shifts in the past year, by top four types, by custom groups, March 2012
SymphonyIRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Ice cream/sherbet—U.S.
- Overview of ice cream/sherbet
- Ice cream
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—ice cream
- Brand map
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- Figure 102: Brand map, selected brands of ice cream buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 103: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ice cream, by household penetration, 2011*
- Sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Brand map
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- Figure 104: Brand map, selected brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 105: Key purchase measures for the top brands of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by household penetration, 2011*
- Frozen yogurt
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen yogurt
- Brand map
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- Figure 106: Brand map, selected brands of frozen yogurt buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 107: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen yogurt, by household penetration, 2011*
- Frozen novelties—U.S.
- Overview of frozen novelties
- Frozen novelties
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen novelties
- Brand map
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- Figure 108: Brand map, selected brands of frozen novelties buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 109: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen novelties, by household penetration, 2011*
Appendix—Other Useful Tables
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- Teens’ frozen yogurt usage
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- Figure 110: Frozen yogurt usage among teens aged 12-17, January 2007-November 2011
- Kids’ frozen treat usage
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- Figure 111: Other frozen treat usage among kids (aged 6-11), January 2007-November 2011
- Household usage of frozen treats
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- Figure 112: Household usage of frozen treats, March 2012
- Figure 113: Household usage of frozen treats, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2012
- Purchase drivers
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- Figure 114: Purchase drivers, by household income, March 2012
- Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack
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- Figure 115: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by household income, March 2012
- Trends in restaurants with ice cream desserts
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- Figure 116: Top 20 ice cream desserts on menus, Q1 2011–Q1 2012
- Figure 117: Top 20 ice cream flavors on menus, Q1 2011–Q1 2012
- Figure 118: Top 10 ice cream marketing claims on menus, Q1 2011–Q1 2012
- Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties
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- Figure 119: Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties, by household income, March 2012
- Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes
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- Figure 120: Other frozen treat behavior and attitudes, by presence of children in household, March 2012
- Consumption shifts in the past year
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- Figure 121: Consumption shifts in the past year, by top four types, by household income, March 2012
- Figure 122: Ice cream and frozen novelties as dessert or snack, by custom groups, March 2012
- Custom consumer groups
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- Figure 123: Favorite ways to eat ice cream and frozen novelties, by values, March 2012
- Figure 124: Outlets where consumers buy frozen treats, by custom groups, March 2012
Appendix—Trade Associations
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