Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Total market size and forecast for value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
- Market factors
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- Figure 2: Trends in annual inflation per quarter (measured in RPI) for soft drinks compared to all items, 2009 Q1-2011 Q2
- Companies, brands and innovation
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- Figure 3: Value sales of top brands within the fruit juice and juice drinks take-home market, 2010
- The consumer
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, August 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Can brands break own-label’s market stranglehold?
- With many consumers having traded down, is there still a future for the chilled pure juice segment?
- What will be the impact of rising costs along the supply chain?
- Is the market too reliant on the in-home drinking occasions rather than capitalising on other opportunities?
Future Opportunities
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- Snack society
- Cool vending
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Inflation a real problem for the sector…
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- Figure 5: Trends in global commodity prices for oranges, Sep 01-Sep 11
- … leading to recent exponential price increases
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- Figure 6: Trends in annual inflation per quarter (measured in RPI) for soft drinks compared to all items, 2009 Q1-2011 Q2
- 2011 sees tightening of consumers’ grocery spend
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- Figure 7: Percentage point change in attitudes towards leading a healthy lifestyle, July 2009-July 2011
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- Figure 8: GFK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, July 2009-September 2011
- Price of pure juices and juice drinks – put in context
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- Figure 9: A comparison of price-point per pack size for a range of fruit juice and juice drink brands compared to market leaders in other soft drink categories, September 2011
- The economic downturn has not spelt the end for health concerns
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- Figure 10: Percentage point change in attitudes towards leading a healthy lifestyle, January 2009-August 2011
- Busier lifestyles means a desire for convenient health
- Looking beyond seasonality
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- Figure 11: Household spend on fruit and vegetable juices and other soft drinks, by quarter, 2006 Q1-2011 Q1
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Real incomes are being increasingly squeezed
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- Figure 12: Year-on-year % change in average weekly earnings compared to inflation in the UK, January 2008-August 2011
- Ageing population puts health even higher on the agenda
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- Figure 13: Population trends and projections, 2006-16
- Increase in ‘white collar’ workers makes office drinks a key opportunity
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- Figure 14: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- The decline in alcohol drinking opens up opportunities
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- Figure 15: Sales of major UK drinks categories, 2006-10
- Soft drink competition intensifies in the past five years
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- Figure 16: Penetration of UK soft drinks in the past 12 months, by sub-category, 2007-11
- An improved performance over the past 12 months
Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Orange and apple flavours dominate among new innovation
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- Figure 17: Top five flavour components of new product launches within the UK Juice/juice drinks market, 2008-11*
- Investing in packaging that stands out in the crowded juice aisle
- A taste for the exotic
- More overtly healthy targeting
- Return of the cult classic…Um Bongo
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- The price of health proves too high
- Volume sales will struggle so long as the economy remains sluggish
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- Figure 18: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
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- Figure 19: Total market size and forecast for value sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, 2006-16
- Pure fruit juice will see its volume sales decline by one tenth by 2016
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- Figure 20: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of pure fruit juice, 2006-16
- Figure 21: Total market size and forecast for value sales of pure fruit juice, 2006-16
- Juice drinks’ lower price-point gives them a stimulus
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- Figure 22: Total market size and forecast for volume and value sales of juice drinks, 2006-16
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- Figure 23: Total market size and forecast for value sales of juice drinks, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
- Fruit juice struggles within the take-home sector
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- Figure 24: Market size of volume and value sales of fruit juice, in take-home, 2006-10
- Figure 25: Market size of volume and value sales of fruit juice, in on-premise, 2006-10
- Juice drinks grow volume sales in take home by an impressive 9%
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- Figure 26: Market size of volume and value sales of juice drinks, in take-home, 2006-10
- Figure 27: Market size of volume and value sales of juice drinks, in on-premise, 2006-10
Market Share
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- Key points
- Tropicana builds on its significant market share
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- Figure 28: Value sales of top ten brands within the fruit juice and juice drinks take-home market, 2008-10
- Juice drink brands get a stimulus as consumers trade down…
- … however, own-label juice drinks prove the biggest winner
Companies and Products
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- Key points
- PepsiCo
- Coca-Cola Enterprise (CCE)
- Britvic
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Pure fruit juices become more important within on-premise channels
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- Figure 29: Value sales for fruit juice, by major channels, 2008-10
- In contrast, multiples dramatically increase share of fruit juices market
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- Figure 30: Value sales for juice drinks, by major channels, 2008-10
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 32: Attitudes by fruit juice and juice drinks brand, August 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 33: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand personality – macro image, August 2011
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- Figure 34: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand personality – micro image, August 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand experience
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- Figure 35: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand usage, August 2011
- Figure 36: Satisfaction with various fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
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- Figure 37: Consideration of fruit juice and juice drinks brands, August 2011
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- Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current fruit juice and juice drinks brand performance, August 2011
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- Figure 39: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, August 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 40: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand index, August 2011
- Figure 41: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand index vs. recommendation, August 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 42: Target groups, August 2011
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- Figure 43: Fruit juice and juice drinks brand usage, by target groups, August 2011
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Entry of smaller brands increases overall ad spend
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- Figure 44: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks*, 2008/09-2010/11
- Tropicana and Oasis go head to head
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- Figure 45: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks*, by brand, for the total period between August 2008 and July 2011
- Tropicana shifts focus onto journey from source to table
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- Figure 46: Main monitored media advertising spend on fruit juices and fruit juice drinks, by brand*, 2008/09-2010/11
Consumer Usage
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- Key points
- Pure juice taps into desire for everyday healthy lifestyles
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- Figure 47: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
- Usage of all juices drops off as people reach 45+
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- Figure 48: Index of penetration of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by key demographics, by product, August 2011
- Fruit juice drinks score highly for everyday usage
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- Figure 49: Index of everyday usage of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by key demographics, August 2011
- Three in five fruit juice and juice drink users have used all three juice types in the past six months
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- Figure 50: Crossover in usage of long-life pure fruit juice, fresh chilled pure fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
- Solus fresh pure juice drinkers skew heavily towards the 55+
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- Figure 51: Drinkers of solus fresh/chilled fruit juice drinkers, by key demographics, August 2011
Venues Where Consumers Drink Juice/Juice Drinks
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- Key points
- An impressive 95% of drinkers do so at home…
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- Figure 52: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, August 2011
- … but opportunities are being missed in the on-trade
- From kids to adults lunchboxes?
- On-the-go opportunities under-utilised for juices
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- Figure 53: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, by which type they drink, August 2011
Consumer Attitudes to Pure Fruit Juice
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- Key points
- A winning combination of refreshment plus healthy convenience
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- Figure 54: Attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, August 2011
- Pure juices have less health appeal to younger consumers, compared to smoothies
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- Figure 55: Net difference in attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, over-45s compared to 16-44-year-olds, August 2011
- The more cynical younger generation requires more health proof…
- … and are more vulnerable to leaving the category
- Families are much more positive about the health benefits of pure juice
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- Figure 56: Net attitudinal difference in attitudes towards 100% pure fruit juice, those with kids in their households compared to those without, August 2011
Consumer Attitudes to Concentrated Fruit Juice Drinks
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- Key points
- Juice drinks struggle to carve out their own niche
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- Figure 57: Attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, August 2011
- Greater opportunities among women
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- Figure 58: Net differences in attitudes to fruit juice drinks, women compared to men, August 2011
- The popularity of lunchboxes
- The alternative to alcohol
Appendix – Broader Market Environment
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- Figure 59: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
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Appendix – Competitive Context
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- Figure 60: Consumption of non-alcoholic drinks, by demographics, 2011
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 61: Brand usage, August 2011
- Figure 62: Brand commitment, August 2011
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- Figure 63: Brand momentum, August 2011
- Figure 64: Brand diversity, August 2011
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- Figure 65: Brand satisfaction, August 2011
- Figure 66: Brand recommendation, August 2011
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- Figure 67: Brand attitude, August 2011
- Figure 68: Brand image – macro image, August 2011
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- Figure 69: Brand image – micro image, August 2011
- Figure 70: Profile of target groups, by demographic, August 2011
- Figure 71: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, August 2011
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- Figure 72: Brand usage, by target group, August 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 73: Brand index, August 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Usage
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- Figure 74: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, August 2011
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- Figure 75: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 76: Consumption of fresh/chilled fruit juice with no added water, in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 77: Consumption of long-life fruit juice with no added water in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 78: Consumption of concentrated fruit juice drinks (ie when water is added to at least 2% fruit content) in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 79: Consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by demographics, August 2011
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Appendix – Venues Where Consumers Drink Juice/Juice Drinks
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- Figure 80: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, August 2011
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- Figure 81: Venues where people drink fruit juice and juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 82: Venues where people drink 100% fresh/chilled fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 83: Most popular venues where people drink 100% long-life fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 84: Next most popular venues where people drink 100% long-life fruit juice with no added water, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 85: Most popular venues where people drink concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 86: Next most popular venues where people drink concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to Pure Fruit Juice
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- Figure 87: Attitudes towards 100% fruit juice, August 2011
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- Figure 88: Attitudes towards 100% fruit juice, by consumption of fruit juice and juice drinks in the past six months, by drinkers of different juice types, August 2011
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- Figure 89: Most popular attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 90: Next most popular attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 91: Other attitudes (any agree) towards 100% fruit juice, by demographics, August 2011
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Appendix – Consumer Attitudes to Concentrated Fruit Juice Drinks
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- Figure 92: Most popular attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
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- Figure 93: Next most popular attitudes to concentrated fruit juice drinks, by demographics, August 2011
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