Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer data
- Advertising clips
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Recession provides a respite from declining sales
- Influential demographics—age and households with children
- Health and wellness trends deter market sales
- Consumer choice in RTE baked goods creates competition
- Leading segments aren’t expected to perform well during 2010-15
- Supermarkets are leading baking and dessert mix retailer
- General Mills and Kraft account for half of FDMx sales
- Baking and dessert mix innovations and innovators
- Attitudes and behaviors of the baking and dessert mix consumer
Insights and Opportunities
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- Overview
- Insight: Core demographics
- Opportunities exist to dually meet interests of both groups
- Spinning health and wellness
- Customizable innovation
Inspire Insights
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- Trend: Minimize Me
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Recession provides impetus for market growth
- Market outlook: Stagnant sales
- Sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 1: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
- Figure 2: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
- Fan-chart forecast
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- Figure 3: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, with fan-chart forecast, 2005-15
- Walmart sales
Market Drivers
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- Recession provides boost to baking mix sales
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- Figure 4: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-November 2010
- Rising food prices favor at-home dining
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- Figure 5: Consumer price index for food, November 2008-November 2010
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- Figure 6: Strategies for dealing with recessionary pressures, by household income, October 2009
- Health and wellness concerns deter sales
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- Figure 7: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
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- Figure 8: Interest in food/diet trends, February 2010
- Aging population not favorable for baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 9: Population aged 18 or older, 2005-15
- Kids vital to category sales
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- Figure 10: Households by presence of children, 1998-2008
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Modern-day convenience perceptions favor competitive markets
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- Figure 11: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, September/October 2010
- In-store bakery—quality, variety
- Packaged goods—convenience, portability
- Foodservice—impulse purchases
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Smaller segments deliver strong growth
- Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment
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- Figure 12: FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, 2008-10
Segment Performance—Cake/Cupcake/Pie Mixes
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- Key points
- Competition from bakeries and foodservice limit demand for mixes
- Sales and forecast of cake/cupcake/pie mixes
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- Figure 13: FDMx sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Pudding and Gelatin Mixes
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- Key points
- Convenience undermines healthy halo and value proposition
- Sales and forecast of pudding and gelatin mixes
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- Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of pudding and gelatin mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Brownie Mixes
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- Key points
- An all-American classic
- Sales and forecast of brownie mixes
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- Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of brownie mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Bread and Muffin Mixes
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- Key points
- Muffin mixes dominate segment sales
- Sales and forecast of bread and muffin mixes
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- Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of bread and muffin mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Pancake/French Toast/Waffle Mixes
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- Key points
- The inexpensive meal: breakfast or dinner
- Sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
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- Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Segment Performance—Other Mixes
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- Key points
- The emergence of dessert bar mixes
- Sales and forecast of other mixes
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- Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets dominate retail sales
- Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel
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- Figure 19: Total U.S. FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, 2008 and 2010
- Supermarket/food stores’ sales of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 20: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-10
- Other retailers’ sales of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 21: Other retailers’ sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-10
Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Natural baking mixes still perceived as less than wholesome
- Sales of baking mixes in the natural channel
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- Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, at current prices, 2008-10
- Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
- Natural channel sales by segment
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- Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by segment, 2008 and 2010
- Leading brands
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- Figure 25: Selected natural supermarket brand sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, 2008 and 2010
- Natural channel sales by organic content
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- Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by organic content, 2008 and 2010
- Natural channel sales by gluten-free content
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- Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by gluten-free content, 2008 and 2010
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Continental Mills—finding a niche
- Private label faring better than dessert and baking mix brands
- FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes by manufacturer
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- Figure 28: Manufacturer FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Cake/Cupcake/Pie Mixes
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- Key points
- Betty Crocker continues growth in core cake mix lines
- The yin and the yang: Duncan Hines Decadence and Snack Size
- Manufacturer and brand sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes
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- Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Pudding and Gelatin Mixes
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- Key points
- Jell-O dominates segment sales, but sales are down
- Manufacturer and brand sales of pudding and gelatin mixes
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- Figure 30: Selected FDMx brand sales of pudding and gelatin mixes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Brownie Mixes
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- Key points
- Brands promoting indulgence and minis both find growth
- Manufacturer and brand sales of brownie mixes
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- Figure 31: Selected FDMx brand sales of brownie mixes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Bread and Muffin Mixes
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- Key points
- Sales of leading manufacturers falter as the supply chain grows
- Manufacturer and brand sales of bread and muffin mixes
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- Figure 32: Selected FDMx brand sales of bread and muffin mixes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Pancake/French Toast/Waffle Mixes
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- Key points
- Aunt Jemima holds steady, Krusteaz and Hungry Jack show growth
- Manufacturer and brand sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
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- Figure 33: Selected FDMx brand sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2009 and 2010
Brand Share—Other Mixes
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- Key points
- Betty Crocker and Bisquick top brands
- Manufacturer and brand sales of other mixes
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- Figure 34: Selected FDMx brand sales of other mixes, 2009 and 2010
Innovations and Innovators
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- Key points
- Product innovations
- Convenience
- Diet and health
- Premium
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- Figure 35: Top 10 claims on baking and dessert mixes product launches, 2005-10
- Product innovators
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- Figure 36: Private label versus name brand baking and dessert mixes product launches, 2005-10
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- Figure 37: Top companies and brands with product launches across baking and dessert mixes, 2005-10
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview
- General Mills’ Betty Crocker
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- Figure 38: Bettycrocker.com monthly visits, December 2009-November 2010
- Figure 39: Betty Crocker Sugar Cookie Mix television ad, November 2010
- Pinnacle Foods’ Duncan Hines
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- Figure 40: Duncan Hines Moist Deluxe television ad, April 2010
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- Figure 41: Duncanhines.com monthly visits, December 2009-November 2010
Baking and Dessert Mix Usage
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- Key points
- Recent baking and dessert mix purchases
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- Figure 42: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 43: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by household income, September/October 2010
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- Figure 44: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by presence of children, September/October 2010
- Household usage of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 45: Household usage of baking and dessert mixes, September/October 2010
- Usage of various baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 46: Usage of dry pancake and waffle mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 47: Usage of dry cake mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 48: Usage of dry brownie mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
- Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 50: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by household income, September/October 2010
Product Attributes That Drive Purchases
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- Key points
- Premium is the most important attribute
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- Figure 51: Product attributes that drive purchases, September/October 2010
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- Figure 52: Product attributes that drive purchases, by age, September/October 2010
- Influence of nutritional info on purchases
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- Figure 53: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 54: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by household income, September/October 2010
- Brand loyalty and private labels
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- Figure 55: Brand loyalty and private labels, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 56: Brand loyalty and private labels, by household income, September/October 2010
- Figure 57: Brand loyalty and private labels, by presence of children, September/October 2010
Habits of the Baking and Dessert Mix Consumer
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- Key points
- Incidence of purchase for all types of baked items
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- Figure 58: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, September/October 2010
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- Figure 59: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by gender, September/October 2010
- High-frequency baking mix users also most likely to use competitive products too
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- Figure 60: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 61: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by household income, September/October 2010
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- Figure 62: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by presence of children, September/October 2010
- The appeal of RTE items over mixes
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- Figure 63: Appeal of RTE items over mixes, by gender, September/October 2010
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- Figure 64: Appeal of RTE items over mixes, by age, September/October 2010
Why Lighter Users Don’t Buy More Often
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- Key points
- Diet and health factors leading deterrent for baking mix purchase
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- Figure 65: Deterrents among lighter users, by gender, September/October 2010
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- Figure 66: Deterrents among lighter users, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 67: Deterrents among lighter users, by household income, September/October 2010
Baking and Dessert Mix Innovations of Interest
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- Key points
- Baking mix innovations consumers want to see
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- Figure 68: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, September/October 2010
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- Figure 69: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by age, September/October 2010
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- Figure 70: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by household income, September/October 2010
Cluster Analysis
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- Pinchers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Pokers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Loafers
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 71: Baking mixes clusters, October 2010
- Figure 72: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
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- Figure 73: Product attributes that drive purchases, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
- Figure 74: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
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- Figure 75: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 76: Baking mixes clusters, by gender, October 2010
- Figure 77: Baking mixes clusters, by age group, October 2010
- Figure 78: Baking mixes clusters, by household income, October 2010
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- Figure 79: Baking mixes clusters, by race, October 2010
- Figure 80: Baking mixes clusters, by Hispanic origin, October 2010
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
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- Key points
- Baking and dessert mix usage by Experian Simmons Food Lifestyle segment
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- Figure 81: Usage of dry cake mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 82: Usage of dry brownie mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
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- Figure 83: Usage of dry pancake and waffle mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
- Recent baking and dessert mix purchases
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- Figure 84: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by gender and age, September/October 2010
- Influence of nutritional info on purchases
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- Figure 85: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by gender and age, September/October 2010
- Innovative interests
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- Figure 86: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest by gender and age, September/October 2010
SymphonyIRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Overview of baking and dessert mixes
- Cake/cupcake/pie mixes
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures – cake/cupcake/pie mixes
- Brand map
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- Figure 87: Brand map, selected brands of cake/cupcake/pie mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 88: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brownie mixes
- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—brownie mixes
- Brand map
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- Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of brownie mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of brownie mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
- Muffin mixes
- Brand map
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- Figure 91: Brand map, selected brands of muffin mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 92: Key purchase measures for the top brands of muffin mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Figure 93: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
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- Figure 94: Product attributes that drive purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
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- Figure 95: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
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- Figure 96: Deterrents among lighter users, by presence of children in the household, September/October 2010
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- Figure 97: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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