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Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - January 2011

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recession provides a respite from declining sales
Influential demographics—age and households with children
Health and wellness trends deter market sales
Consumer choice in RTE baked goods creates competition
Leading segments aren’t expected to perform well during 2010-15
Supermarkets are leading baking and dessert mix retailer
General Mills and Kraft account for half of FDMx sales
Baking and dessert mix innovations and innovators
Attitudes and behaviors of the baking and dessert mix consumer
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
 OVERVIEW
Insight: Core demographics
Opportunities exist to dually meet interests of both groups
Spinning health and wellness
Customizable innovation
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: Minimize Me
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Recession provides impetus for market growth
Market outlook: Stagnant sales
Sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes
Figure 1: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Fan-chart forecast
Figure 3: Total FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, with fan-chart forecast, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Recession provides boost to baking mix sales
Figure 4: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-November 2010
Rising food prices favor at-home dining
Figure 5: Consumer price index for food, November 2008-November 2010
Figure 6: Strategies for dealing with recessionary pressures, by household income, October 2009
Health and wellness concerns deter sales
Figure 7: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
Figure 8: Interest in food/diet trends, February 2010
Aging population not favorable for baking and dessert mixes
Figure 9: Population aged 18 or older, 2005-15
Kids vital to category sales
Figure 10: Households by presence of children, 1998-2008
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Modern-day convenience perceptions favor competitive markets
Figure 11: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, September/October 2010
In-store bakery—quality, variety
Packaged goods—convenience, portability
Foodservice—impulse purchases
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Smaller segments deliver strong growth
Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment
Figure 12: FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, 2008-10
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—CAKE/CUPCAKE/PIE MIXES
Key points
Competition from bakeries and foodservice limit demand for mixes
Sales and forecast of cake/cupcake/pie mixes
Figure 13: FDMx sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PUDDING AND GELATIN MIXES
Key points
Convenience undermines healthy halo and value proposition
Sales and forecast of pudding and gelatin mixes
Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of pudding and gelatin mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BROWNIE MIXES
Key points
An all-American classic
Sales and forecast of brownie mixes
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of brownie mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BREAD AND MUFFIN MIXES
Key points
Muffin mixes dominate segment sales
Sales and forecast of bread and muffin mixes
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of bread and muffin mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PANCAKE/FRENCH TOAST/WAFFLE MIXES
Key points
The inexpensive meal: breakfast or dinner
Sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—OTHER MIXES
Key points
The emergence of dessert bar mixes
Sales and forecast of other mixes
Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of other mixes, at current prices, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets dominate retail sales
Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel
Figure 19: Total U.S. FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, 2008 and 2010
Supermarket/food stores’ sales of baking and dessert mixes
Figure 20: Supermarket/food stores’ sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-10
Other retailers’ sales of baking and dessert mixes
Figure 21: Other retailers’ sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Natural baking mixes still perceived as less than wholesome
Sales of baking mixes in the natural channel
Figure 22: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, at current prices, 2008-10
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by segment, 2008 and 2010
Leading brands
Figure 25: Selected natural supermarket brand sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, 2008 and 2010
Natural channel sales by organic content
Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by organic content, 2008 and 2010
Natural channel sales by gluten-free content
Figure 27: Natural supermarket sales of baking and pudding and gelatin dessert mixes, by gluten-free content, 2008 and 2010
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Continental Mills—finding a niche
Private label faring better than dessert and baking mix brands
FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes by manufacturer
Figure 28: Manufacturer FDMx sales of baking and dessert mixes in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—CAKE/CUPCAKE/PIE MIXES
Key points
Betty Crocker continues growth in core cake mix lines
The yin and the yang: Duncan Hines Decadence and Snack Size
Manufacturer and brand sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes
Figure 29: Selected FDMx brand sales of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—PUDDING AND GELATIN MIXES
Key points
Jell-O dominates segment sales, but sales are down
Manufacturer and brand sales of pudding and gelatin mixes
Figure 30: Selected FDMx brand sales of pudding and gelatin mixes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—BROWNIE MIXES
Key points
Brands promoting indulgence and minis both find growth
Manufacturer and brand sales of brownie mixes
Figure 31: Selected FDMx brand sales of brownie mixes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—BREAD AND MUFFIN MIXES
Key points
Sales of leading manufacturers falter as the supply chain grows
Manufacturer and brand sales of bread and muffin mixes
Figure 32: Selected FDMx brand sales of bread and muffin mixes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—PANCAKE/FRENCH TOAST/WAFFLE MIXES
Key points
Aunt Jemima holds steady, Krusteaz and Hungry Jack show growth
Manufacturer and brand sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
Figure 33: Selected FDMx brand sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—OTHER MIXES
Key points
Betty Crocker and Bisquick top brands
Manufacturer and brand sales of other mixes
Figure 34: Selected FDMx brand sales of other mixes, 2009 and 2010
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Key points
Product innovations
Convenience
Diet and health
Premium
Figure 35: Top 10 claims on baking and dessert mixes product launches, 2005-10
Product innovators
Figure 36: Private label versus name brand baking and dessert mixes product launches, 2005-10
Figure 37: Top companies and brands with product launches across baking and dessert mixes, 2005-10
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 OVERVIEW
General Mills’ Betty Crocker
Figure 38: Bettycrocker.com monthly visits, December 2009-November 2010
Figure 39: Betty Crocker Sugar Cookie Mix television ad, November 2010
Pinnacle Foods’ Duncan Hines
Figure 40: Duncan Hines Moist Deluxe television ad, April 2010
Figure 41: Duncanhines.com monthly visits, December 2009-November 2010
BAKING AND DESSERT MIX USAGE
Key points
Recent baking and dessert mix purchases
Figure 42: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 43: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by household income, September/October 2010
Figure 44: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by presence of children, September/October 2010
Household usage of baking and dessert mixes
Figure 45: Household usage of baking and dessert mixes, September/October 2010
Usage of various baking and dessert mixes
Figure 46: Usage of dry pancake and waffle mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 47: Usage of dry cake mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 48: Usage of dry brownie mixes, by age, April 2009-June 2010
Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes
Figure 49: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 50: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by household income, September/October 2010
PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES THAT DRIVE PURCHASES
Key points
Premium is the most important attribute
Figure 51: Product attributes that drive purchases, September/October 2010
Figure 52: Product attributes that drive purchases, by age, September/October 2010
Influence of nutritional info on purchases
Figure 53: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 54: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by household income, September/October 2010
Brand loyalty and private labels
Figure 55: Brand loyalty and private labels, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 56: Brand loyalty and private labels, by household income, September/October 2010
Figure 57: Brand loyalty and private labels, by presence of children, September/October 2010
HABITS OF THE BAKING AND DESSERT MIX CONSUMER
Key points
Incidence of purchase for all types of baked items
Figure 58: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, September/October 2010
Figure 59: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by gender, September/October 2010
High-frequency baking mix users also most likely to use competitive products too
Figure 60: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 61: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by household income, September/October 2010
Figure 62: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by presence of children, September/October 2010
The appeal of RTE items over mixes
Figure 63: Appeal of RTE items over mixes, by gender, September/October 2010
Figure 64: Appeal of RTE items over mixes, by age, September/October 2010
WHY LIGHTER USERS DON’T BUY MORE OFTEN
Key points
Diet and health factors leading deterrent for baking mix purchase
Figure 65: Deterrents among lighter users, by gender, September/October 2010
Figure 66: Deterrents among lighter users, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 67: Deterrents among lighter users, by household income, September/October 2010
BAKING AND DESSERT MIX INNOVATIONS OF INTEREST
Key points
Baking mix innovations consumers want to see
Figure 68: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, September/October 2010
Figure 69: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by age, September/October 2010
Figure 70: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by household income, September/October 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Pinchers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Pokers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Loafers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 71: Baking mixes clusters, October 2010
Figure 72: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
Figure 73: Product attributes that drive purchases, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
Figure 74: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
Figure 75: Attitudes toward baking and dessert mixes, by baking mixes clusters, October 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 76: Baking mixes clusters, by gender, October 2010
Figure 77: Baking mixes clusters, by age group, October 2010
Figure 78: Baking mixes clusters, by household income, October 2010
Figure 79: Baking mixes clusters, by race, October 2010
Figure 80: Baking mixes clusters, by Hispanic origin, October 2010
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Key points
Baking and dessert mix usage by Experian Simmons Food Lifestyle segment
Figure 81: Usage of dry cake mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 82: Usage of dry brownie mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
Figure 83: Usage of dry pancake and waffle mixes, by food lifestyle segment, April 2009-June 2010
Recent baking and dessert mix purchases
Figure 84: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by gender and age, September/October 2010
Influence of nutritional info on purchases
Figure 85: The influence of nutritional info on labels, by gender and age, September/October 2010
Innovative interests
Figure 86: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest by gender and age, September/October 2010
SYMPHONYIRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 OVERVIEW OF BAKING AND DESSERT MIXES
 CAKE/CUPCAKE/PIE MIXES
Consumer insights on key purchase measures – cake/cupcake/pie mixes
Brand map
Figure 87: Brand map, selected brands of cake/cupcake/pie mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 88: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cake/cupcake/pie mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
 BROWNIE MIXES
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—brownie mixes
Brand map
Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of brownie mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of brownie mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
 MUFFIN MIXES
Brand map
Figure 91: Brand map, selected brands of muffin mixes buying rate, by household penetration, 2010*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 92: Key purchase measures for the top brands of muffin mixes, by household penetration, 2010*
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Figure 93: Baking and dessert mix purchases in the last three months, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
Figure 94: Product attributes that drive purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
Figure 95: Number of occasions that consumers recently purchased baked items, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
Figure 96: Deterrents among lighter users, by presence of children in the household, September/October 2010
Figure 97: Baking and dessert mix innovations of interest, by race/Hispanic origin, September/October 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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