Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data collection
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- Market growth result of unit expansion
- Young people cutting down on restaurant spending
- Upscale, “casual-plus” chains step up to industry challenges
- Courting under-served demographics means new challenges for menus
- Bar and grill concepts dominate, but ethnic segment shows the highest growth
- Not enough ethnic options on menus
- Weekly healthy and ethnic specials
- Smaller-portion desserts
- Fixed-price dinners
- Beverage update
- Engaging patrons with the food
- Younger patrons have distinct ideas about atmosphere
- Pick up, delivery, and pre-made
- College-educated people hard to reach
- Aim low
Demographic Factors
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- Introduction
- Household income
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- Figure 1: Casual restaurant visitation, by household income, January-October 2006
- Figure 2: Likelihood of purchasing an alcoholic beverage, by household income, January-October 2006
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- Figure 3: Distribution of households, by income, 2003 and 2006
- Figure 4: Median household income, 1996-2006
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- Figure 5: Cuts in restaurant spending, by gender, age, household income and presence of children, July 2007
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- Figure 6: Methods for cutting back on restaurant spending, July 2007
- Mortgage rates and consumer debt
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- Figure 7: Historical trending in mortgage rates, 2005-07
- Age
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- Figure 8: Index of per capita casual restaurant visitation, by age, January-October 2006
- Figure 9: Sharing entrées to save money, by age, January-October 2006
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- Figure 10: Population aged 18+, 2002-12
- Race and ethnicity
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- Figure 11: Casual restaurant visitation, by race, January-October 2006
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- Figure 12: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
- Demographic shifts a regional phenomenon
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- Figure 13: Percentage share to casual chain market, by age and race, 2007 and 2012
The Competition Heats Up
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- Introduction
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- Figure 14: Opinions regarding fast casual restaurants and counter service, 2006 and 2007
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- Figure 15: Perceptions of changes in the quality of food served at fast food and in supermarkets restaurants, June 2007
- Lunch breaks continue to shrink
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- Figure 16: Average time for lunch break, Steelcase Workplace Study, 1996 and 2005
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- Figure 17: Length of time available for lunch, weekdays, June 2007
- Premium products at QSR
- Want healthy? Try fast casual
- Organic and all-natural at fast casual
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- Figure 18: Share of menu items with health or organic claims, by restaurant type, Q4 2006
- Competition from RTE meals
- Competition from independent casual chains
- Points of pride
- Interest in menus and delivery service strong
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- Figure 19: Opinions towards casual restaurant menus, July 2007
- Children in charge
- Interest in delivery service
Market Size and Trends
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- Limited growth
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- Figure 20: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
- Market trends
- Unit expansion, not same-store sales, driving growth
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- Figure 21: Unit growth of selected family/midscale and casual restaurant chains, 2005-06
- Green operations and green eating
- Market forecast
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- Figure 22: Forecast of U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, at current and constant prices, 2007-10
- Forecast factors
Market Segmentation
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- Introduction
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- Figure 23: U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, segmented by menu type, 2004 and 2006
- Bar and grill
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- Figure 24: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual bar and grill chains, 2004 and 2006
- Steakhouse
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- Figure 25: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual steakhouse chains, 2004 and 2006
- Italian
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- Figure 26: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual Italian chains, 2004 and 2006
- Seafood
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- Figure 27: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual seafood chains, 2004 and 2006
- Ethnic
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- Figure 28: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual ethnic chains, 2004 and 2006
Supply Structure
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- Introduction
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- Figure 29: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual chains, 2004 and 2006
- Selected trends
- The industry stretches upwards and downwards
- There’s more to value than price promotion
- Premium beef and unusual burgers
- Takeout and to-go
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- Figure 30: Where food was eaten, by restaurant type, April 2007
- Portion and cost control
- Cocktails and bar food
- Leading casual chains
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- Figure 31: Units, average unit volume, and average check size at casual restaurant chains, 2006
- Applebee’s
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- Chili’s Grill & Bar
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- T.G.I. Friday’s
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- Outback Steakhouse
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- Red Lobster
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- Olive Garden
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
- On the Border
- Fast facts and notable recent activity
Advertising and Promotion
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- Introduction
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- Figure 32: Advertising expenditures for top family/midscale and casual restaurant chains, 2005 and 2006
- Applebee’s
- Chili’s
- Red Lobster
- Olive Garden
- T.G.I. Friday’s
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- Figure 33: T.G.I. Friday’s Flat Iron Steak
- Outback Steakhouse
- On the Border
Penetration and Frequency of Attendance by Chain
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- Introduction
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- Figure 34: Mean number of meals outside the home, by age and household income, July 2007
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- Figure 35: Casual restaurant penetration, by age, January-October 2006
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- Figure 36: Indexed value of age groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
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- Figure 37: Casual restaurant penetration, by gender, January-October 2006
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- Figure 38: Casual restaurant penetration, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
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- Figure 39: Indexed value of racial/ethnic groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
- Figure 40: Casual restaurant penetration, by household income, January-October 2006
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- Figure 41: Indexed value of household income groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
- Frequency of visitation
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- Figure 42: Mean number of visits to family restaurants in past 30 days, by age, January-October 2006
How Consumers Pick Out New Restaurants
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- Figure 43: Choosing a restaurant, July 2007
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- Figure 44: Choosing a restaurant, by household income, July 2007
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- Figure 45: Choosing a restaurant, by race/ethncitiy, July 2007
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Attitudes Toward Ethnic Cuisines
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- Figure 46: Interest in ethnic food, by cuisine, July 2007
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- Figure 47: Cuisines of particular interest to high-income households, 18-34s, and blacks, July 2007
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- Figure 48: Share of menu items, by cuisine, by restaurant type, Q1 2006-Q1 2007
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Reasons for Limiting Dining at Casual Restaurants
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- Figure 49: Reasons for limited use of casual restaurant, by age, July 2007
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Loyalty and Adventurousness
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- Figure 50: Loyalty and adventurousness, by frequency of dining out at casual restaurants, July 2007
- Figure 51: Loyalty and adventurousness, by household income, July 2007
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- Figure 52: Loyalty and adventurousness, by age, July 2007
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Attitudes Toward Healthy Eating in Play
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- Figure 53: Trend: Changing attitudes toward healthy eating, 2002 and 2006
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- Figure 54: Opinions towards casual restaurant menus, July 2007
- Battling for Boomers with healthy offerings
- Commitment to health objectives varies by demographic
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- Figure 55: Healthy eating, by gender, July 2007
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- Figure 56: Healthy eating, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 57: Healthy eating, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
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Appetizers, Beverages and Desserts
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- Figure 58: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, July 2007
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- Figure 59: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 60: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by race, July 2007
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- Figure 61: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by household income, July 2007
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Atmosphere Matters
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- Figure 62: Atmosphere preferences, July 2007
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- Figure 63: Atmosphere preferences, by age, July 2007
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- Figure 64: Atmosphere preferences, by household income, July 2007
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- Figure 65: Atmosphere preferences, by race, July 2007
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Courting College Grads
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- Figure 66: Indexed value of household income groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward chain restaurants, by education level, June 2007
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- Figure 68: Interest in nutrition and healthy eating when purchasing lunch, by education level, June 2007
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- Figure 69: Healthy eating, by education level, July 2007
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- Figure 70: Culinary adventurousness, by education level, July 2007
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Attitudes of Frequent Diners
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- Figure 71: Casual restaurant penetration, by visits to casual restaurants in the last 30 days, January-October 2006
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Appendix: Company Profiles
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- Applebee’s
- Chili’s
- T.G.I. Friday’s
- Outback Steakhouse
- Red Lobster
- Olive Garden
- P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
- On the Border
Appendix: Trade Associations
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