Casual Dining - US - October 2007

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data collection
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market growth result of unit expansion
Young people cutting down on restaurant spending
Upscale, “casual-plus” chains step up to industry challenges
Courting under-served demographics means new challenges for menus
Bar and grill concepts dominate, but ethnic segment shows the highest growth
Not enough ethnic options on menus
Weekly healthy and ethnic specials
Smaller-portion desserts
Fixed-price dinners
Beverage update
Engaging patrons with the food
Younger patrons have distinct ideas about atmosphere
Pick up, delivery, and pre-made
College-educated people hard to reach
Aim low
DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
Introduction
Household income
Figure 1: Casual restaurant visitation, by household income, January-October 2006
Figure 2: Likelihood of purchasing an alcoholic beverage, by household income, January-October 2006
Figure 3: Distribution of households, by income, 2003 and 2006
Figure 4: Median household income, 1996-2006
Figure 5: Cuts in restaurant spending, by gender, age, household income and presence of children, July 2007
Figure 6: Methods for cutting back on restaurant spending, July 2007
Mortgage rates and consumer debt
Figure 7: Historical trending in mortgage rates, 2005-07
Age
Figure 8: Index of per capita casual restaurant visitation, by age, January-October 2006
Figure 9: Sharing entrées to save money, by age, January-October 2006
Figure 10: Population aged 18+, 2002-12
Race and ethnicity
Figure 11: Casual restaurant visitation, by race, January-October 2006
Figure 12: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
Demographic shifts a regional phenomenon
Figure 13: Percentage share to casual chain market, by age and race, 2007 and 2012
THE COMPETITION HEATS UP
Introduction
Figure 14: Opinions regarding fast casual restaurants and counter service, 2006 and 2007
Figure 15: Perceptions of changes in the quality of food served at fast food and in supermarkets restaurants, June 2007
Lunch breaks continue to shrink
Figure 16: Average time for lunch break, Steelcase Workplace Study, 1996 and 2005
Figure 17: Length of time available for lunch, weekdays, June 2007
Premium products at QSR
Want healthy? Try fast casual
Organic and all-natural at fast casual
Figure 18: Share of menu items with health or organic claims, by restaurant type, Q4 2006
Competition from RTE meals
Competition from independent casual chains
Points of pride
Interest in menus and delivery service strong
Figure 19: Opinions towards casual restaurant menus, July 2007
Children in charge
Interest in delivery service
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
Limited growth
Figure 20: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
 MARKET TRENDS
Unit expansion, not same-store sales, driving growth
Figure 21: Unit growth of selected family/midscale and casual restaurant chains, 2005-06
Green operations and green eating
 MARKET FORECAST
Figure 22: Forecast of U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, at current and constant prices, 2007-10
Forecast factors
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Introduction
Figure 23: U.S. systemwide sales of leading casual chains, segmented by menu type, 2004 and 2006
Bar and grill
Figure 24: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual bar and grill chains, 2004 and 2006
Steakhouse
Figure 25: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual steakhouse chains, 2004 and 2006
Italian
Figure 26: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual Italian chains, 2004 and 2006
Seafood
Figure 27: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual seafood chains, 2004 and 2006
Ethnic
Figure 28: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual ethnic chains, 2004 and 2006
SUPPLY STRUCTURE
Introduction
Figure 29: U.S. systemwide sales of selected casual chains, 2004 and 2006
Selected trends
The industry stretches upwards and downwards
There’s more to value than price promotion
Premium beef and unusual burgers
Takeout and to-go
Figure 30: Where food was eaten, by restaurant type, April 2007
Portion and cost control
Cocktails and bar food
Leading casual chains
Figure 31: Units, average unit volume, and average check size at casual restaurant chains, 2006
Applebee’s
Fast facts and notable recent activity
Chili’s Grill & Bar
Fast facts and notable recent activity
T.G.I. Friday’s
Fast facts and notable recent activity
Outback Steakhouse
Fast facts and notable recent activity
Red Lobster
Fast facts and notable recent activity
Olive Garden
Fast facts and notable recent activity
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
Fast facts and notable recent activity
On the Border
Fast facts and notable recent activity
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Introduction
Figure 32: Advertising expenditures for top family/midscale and casual restaurant chains, 2005 and 2006
Applebee’s
Chili’s
Red Lobster
Olive Garden
T.G.I. Friday’s
Figure 33: T.G.I. Friday’s Flat Iron Steak
Outback Steakhouse
On the Border
PENETRATION AND FREQUENCY OF ATTENDANCE BY CHAIN
Introduction
Figure 34: Mean number of meals outside the home, by age and household income, July 2007
Figure 35: Casual restaurant penetration, by age, January-October 2006
Figure 36: Indexed value of age groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
Figure 37: Casual restaurant penetration, by gender, January-October 2006
Figure 38: Casual restaurant penetration, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
Figure 39: Indexed value of racial/ethnic groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
Figure 40: Casual restaurant penetration, by household income, January-October 2006
Figure 41: Indexed value of household income groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
Frequency of visitation
Figure 42: Mean number of visits to family restaurants in past 30 days, by age, January-October 2006
HOW CONSUMERS PICK OUT NEW RESTAURANTS
Figure 43: Choosing a restaurant, July 2007
Figure 44: Choosing a restaurant, by household income, July 2007
Figure 45: Choosing a restaurant, by race/ethncitiy, July 2007
ATTITUDES TOWARD ETHNIC CUISINES
Figure 46: Interest in ethnic food, by cuisine, July 2007
Figure 47: Cuisines of particular interest to high-income households, 18-34s, and blacks, July 2007
Figure 48: Share of menu items, by cuisine, by restaurant type, Q1 2006-Q1 2007
REASONS FOR LIMITING DINING AT CASUAL RESTAURANTS
Figure 49: Reasons for limited use of casual restaurant, by age, July 2007
LOYALTY AND ADVENTUROUSNESS
Figure 50: Loyalty and adventurousness, by frequency of dining out at casual restaurants, July 2007
Figure 51: Loyalty and adventurousness, by household income, July 2007
Figure 52: Loyalty and adventurousness, by age, July 2007
ATTITUDES TOWARD HEALTHY EATING IN PLAY
Figure 53: Trend: Changing attitudes toward healthy eating, 2002 and 2006
Figure 54: Opinions towards casual restaurant menus, July 2007
Battling for Boomers with healthy offerings
Commitment to health objectives varies by demographic
Figure 55: Healthy eating, by gender, July 2007
Figure 56: Healthy eating, by age, July 2007
Figure 57: Healthy eating, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
APPETIZERS, BEVERAGES AND DESSERTS
Figure 58: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, July 2007
Figure 59: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by age, July 2007
Figure 60: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by race, July 2007
Figure 61: Ordering appetizers, beverages, and desserts, by household income, July 2007
ATMOSPHERE MATTERS
Figure 62: Atmosphere preferences, July 2007
Figure 63: Atmosphere preferences, by age, July 2007
Figure 64: Atmosphere preferences, by household income, July 2007
Figure 65: Atmosphere preferences, by race, July 2007
COURTING COLLEGE GRADS
Figure 66: Indexed value of household income groups to individual chains, by average annual per capita usage, January-October 2006
Figure 67: Attitudes toward chain restaurants, by education level, June 2007
Figure 68: Interest in nutrition and healthy eating when purchasing lunch, by education level, June 2007
Figure 69: Healthy eating, by education level, July 2007
Figure 70: Culinary adventurousness, by education level, July 2007
ATTITUDES OF FREQUENT DINERS
Figure 71: Casual restaurant penetration, by visits to casual restaurants in the last 30 days, January-October 2006
APPENDIX: COMPANY PROFILES
Applebee’s
Chili’s
T.G.I. Friday’s
Outback Steakhouse
Red Lobster
Olive Garden
P.F. Chang’s China Bistro
On the Border
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS