The colour cosmetics category saw a 22% decline in value in 2020 as COVID-19 wiped out usage occasions, however, 45% of female makeup buyers continued to use makeup even when not leaving the house and 45% purchased a new product that they hadn’t bought before, highlighting a willingness to experiment and purchase products even when social occasions have been limited.

COVID-19 has reduced usage motivations in the category, and accelerated the trend for simpler beauty routines. As consumers enter the next normal, routines are likely to remain simple, suggesting that multifunctional and easy-to-use products will have more appeal in colour cosmetics.

A threat to the category comes from the increased focus on skincare; 69% of female makeup buyers have focused more on their skincare rather than their makeup routine in the last 12 months. As women increase their skincare efforts, this reduces motivations to use makeup.

An opportunity in the category comes from aligning with skincare trends, particularly the clean skincare movement. 20% of female makeup buyers have purchased a clean makeup brand in the last 12 months, but 37% show interest in doing so. Skincare/makeup hybrid and free-from formulations will appeal, as well as advice on how to layer makeup on skincare.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the colour cosmetics market.

• The value of individual segments and brand performance in 2020.

• Shifts in purchase of colour cosmetics and purchase behaviours in the last 12 months.

• Interest and expectations from clean makeup brands.

• Important factors when buying makeup.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June, although the growth of the Delta variant means this final lifting of restrictions was delayed. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

Even before the full reopening of the economy, retail sales and Mintel’s own household finances tracker provided encouraging signs of a rapid return to consumer confidence, and a willingness to spend at least some of the savings that many households were able to build up over the lockdown periods.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020. As of 15 June nearly 80% of the UK population had received their first dose of the vaccine and more than 57% had received their second dose.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, but also take into account predictions made by other economic forecasts, including the Bank of England.

After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the OBR’s scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

The rapid vaccine rollout and the continued efficacy of the vaccine, however, mean that more recent economic forecasts have been significantly more optimistic than the OBR’s March forecast, even given the rise of the Delta variant. We have factored this rise in optimism into our market analysis and scenario forecasts.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

• Face makeup: foundation, concealer, face powder, BB/CC cream, tinted moisturiser, blusher, bronzer, primer, highlighter, colour correctors, contouring products

• Eye makeup: mascara, eyeliner, eyeshadow, eyebrow products, false eyelashes

• Lip makeup: lipstick, lip gloss, lip liner, tinted lip balm

• Nail makeup: nail polish, gel/UV nail polish, false nails.

Within this Report, we also discuss base and point colour makeup. Base makeup refers to products for the face that create an even cover for the skin, primarily foundation, concealer, BB/CC creams and face powder. By contrast, point colour refers to makeup products that are designed to draw attention to specific areas, such as eye, lip and nail makeup.

Nail care products (eg cuticle cream, buffers and French manicure) are excluded. Body glitter products and instant tanning products are also outside the scope of this Report.