Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
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- Figure 1: Short. medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 22 April 2020
- The market
- Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
- Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
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- Figure 2: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
- The consumer and COVID-19: health and fitness
- Exercise has become a bigger priority as a result of the pandemic
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- Figure 3: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- Consumers won’t break their newfound habits that easily
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- Figure 4: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
- The consumer and COVID-19: live entertainment
- Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience…
- …while televised sport brings relief to millions
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- Figure 5: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
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- Figure 6: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
- The consumer and COVID-19: gambling
- COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
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- Figure 7: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
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- Figure 8: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
- The consumer: post-COVID-19 leisure habits
- Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
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- Figure 9: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
Category Winners and Losers
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- Online gambling continues its winning streak
- Leisure venues lose out to home-based alternatives
- Gyms feel the pain, but the long-term future is positive
COVID-19 Consumer Timeline
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- Phase 1 – January-March: consumers go into lockdown
- Phase 2 – March-June: adapting to life in lockdown
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- Figure 10: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
- Phase 3: emerging from the initial lockdown
- Phase 4: rise of the next wave
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- Figure 11: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, 30 January 2020-28 March 2021
- Phase 5: January-March: winter lockdown and vaccine rollout
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- Figure 12: Cumulative number of first and second vaccines delivered in the UK, 10 January-31 March 2021
- Phase 6: March onwards: the roadmap out of lockdown
The Post-pandemic Outlook for Leisure
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- Focusing on the great outdoors
- More premium experiences
- The blurring of online and offline
The Economic Impact
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- A record drop in economic activity…
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- Figure 13: Annual percentage change in GDP, 2007-25 (forecast)
- …as COVID-19 restrictions caused a severe fall in spending
- Consumer spending is heavily dependent on the path of the pandemic
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- Figure 14: Household consumption index, 2019-25 (scenario forecasts)
- Furloughs have saved millions of jobs…
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- Figure 15: Number of employments furloughed, time series, March 2020-February 2021
- …but unemployment is forecast to rise when state support ends
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- Figure 16: Quarterly unemployment rate, Q1 2008-Q1 2026 (forecast)
- Under-25s have borne the brunt of COVID-19 job losses
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- Figure 17: Change in number of employees on payroll, by age, February 2021 vs February 2020
Market Size and Performance
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- Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
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- Figure 18: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 15 April 2020
- Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
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- Figure 19: Value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, 2015-20
- Recovery started in Summer 2020, but many people stayed away from venues
- Vaccine will be a shot in the arm for the experience economy
Market Forecast
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- Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
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- Figure 20: UK forecast for the value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, at current prices, 2015-25
- Structural damage and barriers to big events will delay recovery
COVID-19 Scenario Performance
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- Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
- Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
- Pace of recovery highly dependent on when social distancing is relaxed
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- Figure 21: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
- Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales as soon as the end of 2022
- COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
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- Figure 22: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the out-of-home leisure market, April 2021
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Health
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- Exposure anxieties align with case numbers
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- Figure 23: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Exposure anxiety typically higher among over-55s
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- Figure 24: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) towards being exposed to the coronavirus, by age 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Middle-age band fear transmitting virus
Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Lifestyles
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- Concerns about lifestyles impact outweigh exposure fears
- Consumers react to unprecedented lifestyle restrictions
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- Figure 25: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
- Lifestyle impact concerns high across all age groups
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- Figure 26: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) about how the outbreak could impact their lifestyle, by age 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
Impact on Household Finances
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- Financial wellbeing has hit new heights despite the crisis…
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- Figure 27: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015-March 2021
- …but many still feel worse off than a year ago
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- Figure 28: Changes in household finances, January 2015- March 2021
- One in six furloughed at least once
- Increased working at home will require a shift in leisure venue distribution
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- Figure 29: Impact of COVID-19 on employment and working patterns, February 2021
- Income trends point to a two-track crisis and recovery
- COVID will further polarise the structure of the health club market
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- Figure 30: Impact of COVID-19 on personal income, February 2021
- Cuts to discretionary spending have kept household finances afloat…
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- Figure 31: Impact of COVID-19 on household debts, February 2021
- …and led to a record savings boost
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- Figure 32: Impact of COVID-19 on the value of savings in different products, February 2021
- Most are optimistic about the year ahead…
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- Figure 33: The financial confidence index, January 2015-March 2021
- …and looking forward to getting back to experiences
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- Figure 34: Financial priorities when COVID-19 is no longer a concern, February 2021
How the Pandemic Shaped Consumer Behaviour
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- Health comes first…
- …especially for the leisure industry’s younger customers
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- Figure 35: Changes in consumers’ priorities since the start of the pandemic, February 2021
- Everyone’s a local – Rebuilding the high street
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- Figure 36: Consumers’ expectations regarding working from home in future, March 2021
- Confidence in socialising has plummeted
Impact of COVID-19 on Health and Fitness
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- A third of us bought home exercise equipment during the pandemic
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- Figure 37: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- Blended working will need blended fitness clubs
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- Figure 38: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
- Remote working trend will redistribute market value
Impact of COVID-19 on Live Entertainment
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- Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience
- Televised sport brings relief to millions
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- Figure 39: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
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- Figure 40: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
Impact of COVID-19 on Gambling
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- COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
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- Figure 41: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
- In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
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- Figure 42: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
Post-COVID-19 Leisure Habits
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- Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
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- Figure 43: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
- The pandemic has reinforced the importance of mental wellbeing
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- Figure 44: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, by generation, March 2021
- Fitness enthusiasts will expect gyms to offer more holistic wellbeing services
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology
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- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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- Figure 45: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for out-of-home leisure, 2020-25
- Market drivers and assumptions
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- Figure 46: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared 15 April 2021)
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions
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- Scenario performance
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- Figure 47: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2020-25
- Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
- Scenario methodology
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