37% of full-time workers expect to work from home more often than they did before the pandemic, even once COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat. This will have major ramifications for the leisure industry, alongside virtually every other consumer-facing industry.

The pandemic has already inflicted catastrophic damage on the out-of-home leisure sector, with total value falling by almost half in 2020. No other consumer sector is more exposed to enforced closures and social distancing requirements, and the timing of an end to the latter will be crucial in determining the industry’s pace of recovery.

Increased remote working and a drop in inbound tourism will weigh heavily on city-based leisure operators, who rely so much on commuters and tourists. The pandemic will hit city economies hardest, and it will take longer for operators based here to recover, meaning there are likely to be some failures when government support comes to an end.

However, with market value likely to be redistributed towards more suburban areas, there are opportunities for leisure brands to expand their footprint along local high streets and in out-of-town retail parks easily accessible by car.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market and what the sector’s recovery will look like

• How the pandemic will shape consumers’ behaviour and their future leisure habits

• What impact COVID-19 will have on consumers’ exercise habits and locations

• Future demand for live entertainment events and livestreaming alternatives

• How the pandemic will impact participation in gambling online and in venues

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It was not until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions further in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the reopening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines have been licensed for use in the UK. By 20 April, 33 million people had received a first dose, and 10 million had been given their second dose.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until Q2 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster-than-expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in Q4 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

At the time of publication, Mintel’s assumptions are based on leisure venues reopening in line with the government’s roadmap, which includes places such as cinemas, tenpin bowling venues and museums reopening on 17 May 2021, after most outdoor leisure attractions, indoor gyms and betting shops reopened on 12 April.

This Report covers the UK out-of-home leisure industry.

Mintel’s market size is based on the following:

Out-of-home leisure: consumer expenditure on the activities or at the venues listed below.

• Private health and fitness clubs: membership fees and secondary expenditure (eg beauty treatments, sunbeds, bar, food, shop, etc)

• Public leisure centres/swimming pools: sporting activities and ancillary items (eg food and drink)

• Sports participation (excluding health and fitness memberships, sports goods and equipment)

• Music concerts and festivals: tickets and ancillary items (eg food, drink and merchandise)

• Performing arts: tickets to theatre, opera, ballet/dance

• Spectator sports: tickets to sports events

• Visitor attractions: admission to zoos, gardens, museums, theme parks, etc

• Cinemas: box office and retail revenue

• Tenpin bowling: bowling and secondary expenditure (eg food and drink, amusement machines)

• Nightclubs: admissions, food and drink

Gambling: online and offline consumer expenditure (ie stakes minus prizes/winnings) on the following:

• National Lottery draws, other lotteries (eg Health Lottery/People’s Postcode Lottery) and scratch cards

• Gaming machines and online slots

• Bingo

• Betting on sports events (eg horseracing, football, etc) and non-sports events (eg politics, TV reality shows, etc)

• Casino games