Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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COVID-19 and Out-of-home Leisure: A Year On - UK - April 2021

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: market context
Economic and other assumptions
Markets covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
Figure 1: Short. medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 22 April 2020
The market
Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
Figure 2: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
The consumer and COVID-19: health and fitness
Exercise has become a bigger priority as a result of the pandemic
Figure 3: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
Consumers won’t break their newfound habits that easily
Figure 4: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
The consumer and COVID-19: live entertainment
Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience…
…while televised sport brings relief to millions
Figure 5: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
Figure 6: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
The consumer and COVID-19: gambling
COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
Figure 7: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
Figure 8: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
The consumer: post-COVID-19 leisure habits
Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
Figure 9: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
CATEGORY WINNERS AND LOSERS
Online gambling continues its winning streak
Leisure venues lose out to home-based alternatives
Gyms feel the pain, but the long-term future is positive
COVID-19 CONSUMER TIMELINE
Phase 1 – January-March: consumers go into lockdown
Phase 2 – March-June: adapting to life in lockdown
Figure 10: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
Phase 3: emerging from the initial lockdown
Phase 4: rise of the next wave
Figure 11: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, 30 January 2020-28 March 2021
Phase 5: January-March: winter lockdown and vaccine rollout
Figure 12: Cumulative number of first and second vaccines delivered in the UK, 10 January-31 March 2021
Phase 6: March onwards: the roadmap out of lockdown
THE POST-PANDEMIC OUTLOOK FOR LEISURE
Focusing on the great outdoors
More premium experiences
The blurring of online and offline
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT
A record drop in economic activity…
Figure 13: Annual percentage change in GDP, 2007-25 (forecast)
…as COVID-19 restrictions caused a severe fall in spending
Consumer spending is heavily dependent on the path of the pandemic
Figure 14: Household consumption index, 2019-25 (scenario forecasts)
Furloughs have saved millions of jobs…
Figure 15: Number of employments furloughed, time series, March 2020-February 2021
…but unemployment is forecast to rise when state support ends
Figure 16: Quarterly unemployment rate, Q1 2008-Q1 2026 (forecast)
Under-25s have borne the brunt of COVID-19 job losses
Figure 17: Change in number of employees on payroll, by age, February 2021 vs February 2020
MARKET SIZE AND PERFORMANCE
Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
Figure 18: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 15 April 2020
Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
Figure 19: Value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, 2015-20
Recovery started in Summer 2020, but many people stayed away from venues
Vaccine will be a shot in the arm for the experience economy
MARKET FORECAST 
Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
Figure 20: UK forecast for the value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, at current prices, 2015-25
Structural damage and barriers to big events will delay recovery
COVID-19 SCENARIO PERFORMANCE
Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
Pace of recovery highly dependent on when social distancing is relaxed
Figure 21: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales as soon as the end of 2022
COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
Figure 22: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the out-of-home leisure market, April 2021
CONSUMER CONCERNS OVER THE IMPACT ON HEALTH
Exposure anxieties align with case numbers
Figure 23: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
Exposure anxiety typically higher among over-55s
Figure 24: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) towards being exposed to the coronavirus, by age 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
Middle-age band fear transmitting virus
CONSUMER CONCERNS OVER THE IMPACT ON LIFESTYLES
Concerns about lifestyles impact outweigh exposure fears
Consumers react to unprecedented lifestyle restrictions
Figure 25: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
Lifestyle impact concerns high across all age groups
Figure 26: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) about how the outbreak could impact their lifestyle, by age 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
IMPACT ON HOUSEHOLD FINANCES
Financial wellbeing has hit new heights despite the crisis…
Figure 27: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015-March 2021
…but many still feel worse off than a year ago
Figure 28: Changes in household finances, January 2015- March 2021
One in six furloughed at least once
Increased working at home will require a shift in leisure venue distribution
Figure 29: Impact of COVID-19 on employment and working patterns, February 2021
Income trends point to a two-track crisis and recovery
COVID will further polarise the structure of the health club market
Figure 30: Impact of COVID-19 on personal income, February 2021
Cuts to discretionary spending have kept household finances afloat…
Figure 31: Impact of COVID-19 on household debts, February 2021
…and led to a record savings boost
Figure 32: Impact of COVID-19 on the value of savings in different products, February 2021
Most are optimistic about the year ahead…
Figure 33: The financial confidence index, January 2015-March 2021
…and looking forward to getting back to experiences
Figure 34: Financial priorities when COVID-19 is no longer a concern, February 2021
HOW THE PANDEMIC SHAPED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Health comes first…
…especially for the leisure industry’s younger customers
Figure 35: Changes in consumers’ priorities since the start of the pandemic, February 2021
Everyone’s a local – Rebuilding the high street
Figure 36: Consumers’ expectations regarding working from home in future, March 2021
Confidence in socialising has plummeted
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HEALTH AND FITNESS
A third of us bought home exercise equipment during the pandemic
Figure 37: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
Blended working will need blended fitness clubs
Figure 38: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
Remote working trend will redistribute market value
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON LIVE ENTERTAINMENT
Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience
Televised sport brings relief to millions
Figure 39: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
Figure 40: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON GAMBLING
COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
Figure 41: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
Figure 42: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
POST-COVID-19 LEISURE HABITS
Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
Figure 43: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
The pandemic has reinforced the importance of mental wellbeing
Figure 44: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, by generation, March 2021
Fitness enthusiasts will expect gyms to offer more holistic wellbeing services
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – CENTRAL FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Market forecast and prediction intervals
Figure 45: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for out-of-home leisure, 2020-25
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 46: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared 15 April 2021)
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX – COVID SCENARIO PERFORMANCE METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Scenario performance
Figure 47: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2020-25
Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
Scenario methodology

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