A combination of enforced closures, capacity restrictions and consumers’ financial and health and safety concerns resulted in the value of the ethnic restaurants and takeaways market plummeting from £13 billion in 2019 to £9.6 billion in 2020.

As long as the threat of the virus lingers, many people will continue to avoid dining inside restaurants. On the flipside, the UK’s vaccination programme, which started on 8 December 2020, is likely to restore consumer confidence in visiting restaurants -ethnic included - again.

As consumers’ ‘frugal mindset’ is likely to persist, a price strategy will be much needed to drive usage. Some ethnic restaurants are turning to discounts and rewards for customer loyalty or even just for their visit. But value is not about being the cheapest. Cost-conscious consumers will also respond to deals that represent excellent value-for-money, therefore a fixed-price set menu or meal deal tagged on to a few signature dishes can increase the perceived value of an offer, while also keeping the door open for upsizing or trading up.

COVID-19 continues to spur on the development of new sales channels. For example, a wider choice of specialised e-tailers has enabled more operators to push their range of restaurant-branded meal kits into the market. Ethnic restaurant operators are also focusing on meeting delivery demand rather than expanding outlet numbers. Several brands are doing so by expanding their delivery catchment areas through dark kitchens.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the ethnic restaurants and takeaways market

• Changes in ethnic restaurant and takeaway usage

• Factors that influence consumers’ choice of ethnic restaurants and takeaways

• Consumers’ perceptions of common ethnic restaurant and takeaway venues.

This Report examines the UK ethnic restaurant market, including restaurants and takeaways specialising in any cuisines outside Continental Europe, Russia, Australasia and North America.

The market size comprises sales turnover of dine-in and takeaways from ethnic restaurant chains as well as independents.

The following definitions apply to the various cuisines referred to in this Report.

• Caribbean

• Mexican, including Tex-Mex

• South American, eg Peruvian, Brazilian

• Moroccan

• Eastern Mediterranean, eg Greek, Lebanese, Turkish

• South Asian, eg Indian, Sri Lankan, Bangladeshi

• Southeast Asian, eg Malaysian/Singaporean, Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian

• Japanese

• Korean

• Chinese (eg Cantonese, Sichuan) and Taiwanese.

Excluded from this Report are:

• All ethnic ready meals and food products bought through retail channels, eg supermarkets.

• Ethnic meals bought in non-specialist ethnic restaurants, eg pubs, hotels, sandwich shops etc.

• All Continental European, Russian, Australasian and North American foods, with the exception of Tex-Mex.

Further research on the home delivery and takeaway sectors can be found in Mintel’s Attitudes Towards Home Delivery and Takeaway – UK, February 2021 Report.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. Rapidly rising case numbers led to the first national lockdown, starting on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions.

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown.

On 22 February, Boris Johnson announced the roadmap to an easing of restrictions in England, starting with the re-opening of schools on 8 March, followed by easing of restrictions on outdoor gatherings on 29 March, and with a hoped end to all restrictions by 21 June. The Welsh and Scottish governments also gave more details on their plans to ease restrictions, with both nations taking a slightly more cautious approach to the one planned for England.

Foodservice venues will first reopen for outdoor dining in England from 12 April 2021. Following that, venues will begin to serve limited numbers of diners indoors no earlier than 17 May 2021.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a first dose of the vaccine to 32 million people by mid-April.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook Report. After the fall of 9.9% over the course of 2020, the scenario suggests that UK GDP will grow by 4% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022.

GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second quarter of 2022, although this is six months earlier than the OBR forecast in November 2020, mainly because of the faster than expected rollout of vaccines.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. As with GDP, this is more positive than the OBR’s November forecast, but the OBR does raise the prospect of long-term scarring on employment, especially in the more exposed retail and hospitality sectors.

At the time of writing (29 March 2021) the front of house of ethnic restaurants are expected to re-open in England from 12 April (outdoors) and 17 May (indoors).

Meanwhile, takeaway or home delivery services are expected to continue to be consumers’ preferred out-of-home (OOH) dining occasions.

Wider participation in eating in at ethnic restaurants is expected to recommence when the vaccination programme has completed and the risk of COVID-19 is deemed to be very low.