Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales forecast for a boost in 2020
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- Figure 1: Estimated market value of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
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- Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, short, medium and long term, 17 December 2020
- Brexit casts concerns around pricing and shortages
- Who’s innovating?
- The consumer
- Dairy most likely to be avoided
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- Figure 3: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Consumers more likely to buy than eat free-from foods
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- Figure 4: Types of free-from food and drink consumers have bought or eaten for themselves in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Almost four in ten are eating more free-from foods during the pandemic
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- Figure 5: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
- What we think
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Free-from sales gets a boost in 2020
- Food prices decreasing
- Fears around shortages and labelling after Brexit
Market Sizes & Forecast
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- Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 6: Expected impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, short, medium and long term, 17 December 2020
- Free-from foods see a boost as a result of the pandemic
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- Figure 7: Estimated market value of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
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- Figure 8: Index growth of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Lessons learned from the last recession
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- Figure 9: Index growth of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2009-13
Market Drivers
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- Food price rises in UK but falls in RoI
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- Figure 10: Consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages, UK (including NI), September 2018-October 2020
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- Figure 11: Consumer price index of food, RoI, September 2018-October 2020
- Brexit will present challenges to food supply chains
- Brexit creates uncertainty surrounding free-from labelling
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- Figure 12: Consumer agreement with the statement ‘I worry that allergy labelling will become less reliable after Brexit’, by presence of child/ren in the household, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Consumer sentiment takes a hit due to COVID-19
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- Figure 13: Consumer agreement with the question: ‘How has your financial situation changed since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in your country?’, NI and RoI, November 2020
Companies and Innovations – Key Takeaways
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- Steady growth shown across free-from foods claims
- Ethical claims on the rise amongst gluten-free foods
- Supermarkets innovating in the free-from aisle
Who’s Innovating?
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- Free-from claims show steady growth
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- Figure 14: Number of free-from food and drink products, by selected claims, UK and Ireland 2015-20*,
- Tesco leading in dairy-free products
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- Figure 15: New dairy-free product food and drink launches, by company, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
- Supermarkets investing in meat-free ranges too
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- Figure 16: New meat alternative products, food launches, by company, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
- Ethical claims grow in gluten-free launches
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- Figure 17: New gluten-free food product launches, by claims, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
- Supermarkets recognised for innovation in free-from foods
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Almost four in ten are eating more free-from foods during the pandemic
- Dairy most likely to be avoided
- Perceptions were overall negative with most free-from diets
COVID-19 and Consumer Behaviours
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- Over half of Irish consumers are experimenting with free-from foods
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- Figure 18: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Men experimenting more with free-from foods
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- Figure 19: Agreement with the statement ‘I have been trying more different types of free-from in the last six months’, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Limited stocks an issue during the pandemic
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- Figure 20: Agreement with the statement ‘since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, I am stocking up on groceries/other supplies’, IoI, March-November 2020
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- Figure 21: Agreement with the statement ‘COVID-19 has made it difficult to find some free-from foods’ and ‘COVID-19 has seen me eat/drink more free-from foods’, NI and RoI, November 2020
Ingredients Avoided and Why?
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- Dairy most likely to be avoided
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- Figure 22: Types of food/ingredients avoided, by reason (eg because they/a member of household has a confirmed or suspected allergy/intolerance, as part of a healthy lifestyle etc), NI and RoI, November 2020
- Avoidance due to an allergy more likely in dairy
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- Figure 23: Types of food/ingredients avoided, due to a confirmed or suspected allergy/intolerance, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Dairy more likely to be avoided for health reasons
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- Figure 24: Types of food/ingredients avoided due to health lifestyle choices, NI and RoI, November 2020
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- Figure 25: Consumers who associated ‘nutritious’ with the select diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Soya avoided for other reasons
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- Figure 26: Types of food/ingredients avoided due to other reasons (eg ethical, vegetarian, don’t like), NI and RoI, November 2020
Free-from Products Bought and Eaten
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- Irish consumers more likely to buy/eat gluten-free
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- Figure 27: Types of free-from food and drink consumers have bought or eaten for themselves in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Dairy substitutes more popular among RoI women
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- Figure 28: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten dairy/dairy-free substitutes (eg soya milk) in the last six months, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Similar percentage buying and eating meat substitutes
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- Figure 29: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten meat-free substitutes in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Gluten-free more likely to be bought by affluent consumers
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- Figure 30: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten gluten-free food and drink in the last six months, by affluency, NI and RoI, November 2020
Free-from Food Behaviours
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- Nutrition concerns surround free-from foods
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- Figure 31: Agreement with statements relating to free-from food, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Hybrid free-from products find a market
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- Figure 32: Consumer agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying foods that are 'reduced' ingredients rather than being completely free-from (eg reduced dairy rather than no dairy)’, by social class, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Sustainable packaging sought after
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- Figure 33: Agreement with the statement ‘I think free-from foods should use more recyclable packaging’, NI and RoI, November 2020
Qualities Associated with Select Diets
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- Gluten-free seen as having limited options
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- Figure 34: Qualities associated with gluten-free diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Low-carb associated with weight management
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- Figure 35: Qualities associated with low-carb diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Dairy-free associated with environmentally friendly
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- Figure 36: Qualities associated with dairy-free diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Plant-based diets associated with natural qualities
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- Figure 37: Qualities associated with plant-based diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
- Vegan diets score lower than plant-based in key areas
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- Figure 38: Qualities associated with vegan diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Abbreviations
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