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Free-from Foods - Ireland - December 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: Market context
Issues covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Sales forecast for a boost in 2020
Figure 1: Estimated market value of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, short, medium and long term, 17 December 2020
Brexit casts concerns around pricing and shortages
Who’s innovating?
The consumer
Dairy most likely to be avoided
Figure 3: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
Consumers more likely to buy than eat free-from foods
Figure 4: Types of free-from food and drink consumers have bought or eaten for themselves in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
Almost four in ten are eating more free-from foods during the pandemic
Figure 5: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
What we think
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Free-from sales gets a boost in 2020
Food prices decreasing
Fears around shortages and labelling after Brexit
MARKET SIZES & FORECAST
Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
Figure 6: Expected impact of COVID-19 on free-from foods, short, medium and long term, 17 December 2020
Free-from foods see a boost as a result of the pandemic
Figure 7: Estimated market value of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
Figure 8: Index growth of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2015-25
Lessons learned from the last recession
Figure 9: Index growth of free-from food and drink, NI and RoI, 2009-13
MARKET DRIVERS 
Food price rises in UK but falls in RoI
Figure 10: Consumer price index of food and non-alcoholic beverages, UK (including NI), September 2018-October 2020
Figure 11: Consumer price index of food, RoI, September 2018-October 2020
Brexit will present challenges to food supply chains
Brexit creates uncertainty surrounding free-from labelling
Figure 12: Consumer agreement with the statement ‘I worry that allergy labelling will become less reliable after Brexit’, by presence of child/ren in the household, NI and RoI, November 2020
Consumer sentiment takes a hit due to COVID-19
Figure 13: Consumer agreement with the question: ‘How has your financial situation changed since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in your country?’, NI and RoI, November 2020
COMPANIES AND INNOVATIONS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Steady growth shown across free-from foods claims
Ethical claims on the rise amongst gluten-free foods
Supermarkets innovating in the free-from aisle
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Free-from claims show steady growth
Figure 14: Number of free-from food and drink products, by selected claims, UK and Ireland 2015-20*,
Tesco leading in dairy-free products
Figure 15: New dairy-free product food and drink launches, by company, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
Supermarkets investing in meat-free ranges too
Figure 16: New meat alternative products, food launches, by company, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
Ethical claims grow in gluten-free launches
Figure 17: New gluten-free food product launches, by claims, UK and Ireland, 2015-20*
Supermarkets recognised for innovation in free-from foods
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS 
Almost four in ten are eating more free-from foods during the pandemic
Dairy most likely to be avoided
Perceptions were overall negative with most free-from diets
COVID-19 AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOURS 
Over half of Irish consumers are experimenting with free-from foods
Figure 18: Agreement with statements related to free-from foods and COVID-19, NI and RoI, November 2020
Men experimenting more with free-from foods
Figure 19: Agreement with the statement ‘I have been trying more different types of free-from in the last six months’, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
Limited stocks an issue during the pandemic
Figure 20: Agreement with the statement ‘since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, I am stocking up on groceries/other supplies’, IoI, March-November 2020
Figure 21: Agreement with the statement ‘COVID-19 has made it difficult to find some free-from foods’ and ‘COVID-19 has seen me eat/drink more free-from foods’, NI and RoI, November 2020
INGREDIENTS AVOIDED AND WHY?
Dairy most likely to be avoided
Figure 22: Types of food/ingredients avoided, by reason (eg because they/a member of household has a confirmed or suspected allergy/intolerance, as part of a healthy lifestyle etc), NI and RoI, November 2020
Avoidance due to an allergy more likely in dairy
Figure 23: Types of food/ingredients avoided, due to a confirmed or suspected allergy/intolerance, NI and RoI, November 2020
Dairy more likely to be avoided for health reasons
Figure 24: Types of food/ingredients avoided due to health lifestyle choices, NI and RoI, November 2020
Figure 25: Consumers who associated ‘nutritious’ with the select diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Soya avoided for other reasons
Figure 26: Types of food/ingredients avoided due to other reasons (eg ethical, vegetarian, don’t like), NI and RoI, November 2020
FREE-FROM PRODUCTS BOUGHT AND EATEN
Irish consumers more likely to buy/eat gluten-free
Figure 27: Types of free-from food and drink consumers have bought or eaten for themselves in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
Dairy substitutes more popular among RoI women
Figure 28: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten dairy/dairy-free substitutes (eg soya milk) in the last six months, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2020
Similar percentage buying and eating meat substitutes
Figure 29: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten meat-free substitutes in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2020
Gluten-free more likely to be bought by affluent consumers
Figure 30: Consumers who have bought and/or eaten gluten-free food and drink in the last six months, by affluency, NI and RoI, November 2020
FREE-FROM FOOD BEHAVIOURS
Nutrition concerns surround free-from foods
Figure 31: Agreement with statements relating to free-from food, NI and RoI, November 2020
Hybrid free-from products find a market
Figure 32: Consumer agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying foods that are 'reduced' ingredients rather than being completely free-from (eg reduced dairy rather than no dairy)’, by social class, NI and RoI, November 2020
Sustainable packaging sought after
Figure 33: Agreement with the statement ‘I think free-from foods should use more recyclable packaging’, NI and RoI, November 2020
QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SELECT DIETS
Gluten-free seen as having limited options
Figure 34: Qualities associated with gluten-free diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Low-carb associated with weight management
Figure 35: Qualities associated with low-carb diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Dairy-free associated with environmentally friendly
Figure 36: Qualities associated with dairy-free diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Plant-based diets associated with natural qualities
Figure 37: Qualities associated with plant-based diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
Vegan diets score lower than plant-based in key areas
Figure 38: Qualities associated with vegan diets, NI and RoI, November 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Data sources
Abbreviations

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