That low price is the top factor influencing shoppers’ choice when buying cooking and pasta sauces signals a warning to the market in light of the financial pressures facing households in 2021. However, it’s only a consideration for 50% of buyers, clearly indicating that brands can look to competitive levers beyond price to stand out.

The restrictions and lockdowns enacted to combat the spread of COVID-19 in 2020 have provided a boost to cooking and pasta sauces. Beyond these, the category has benefited from the edict to work from home, a reluctance to visit foodservice venues and people tightening their purse strings. The new wave of lockdowns starting in January 2021will have a similar effect to the previous periods of heightened restrictions, while the expected shift towards more homeworking long term will keep up sauce occasions going forward, providing a boost to the lunchtime occasion.

This has resulted in aboost to home cooking, benefiting cooking/pasta sauces. That shop-bought sauces are part of most scratch cooks’ repertoires highlights potential for manufacturers to convince these consumers to switch to more convenient cooking sauces more often, but also the threat they face as the pandemic has seen many people improve their cooking skills.

With finances under pressure going into 2021 and people likely to remain hesitant about mixing in enclosed spaces, this will continue to curb dining out even once restrictions are eased. This presents opportunities for food sold at retail, including cooking sauces, to position itself as an alternative to a meal at a restaurant. This is particularly applicable to premium sauces, with 64% of users/buyers agreeing that a home-made meal made using a premium cooking/pasta sauce is a good alternative to a meal at a restaurant.

• The impact of COVID-19 on the cooking and pasta sauces retail market.

• Launch activity in 2020 and future product development opportunities.

• Factors influencing choice of cooking and pasta sauces.

• Reasons to pay more for cooking and pasta sauces.

• Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to cooking and pasta sauces.

The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to re-open, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a full month-long lockdown from 5 November, and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding to the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZenica vaccines licenced for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Much of this Report was prepared in December 2020, before the announcement of the January lockdown.

However, the content was reassessed and, where necessary, adjusted on 12 January, in order to ensure that our analysis and our forecast expectations still hold true. We have also reassessed the content in the light of the progress of the vaccine rollout, and the resolution of the Brexit negotiations.

Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early- to-mid 2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021, and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the fourth quarter of 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty, however, means there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium- to long-term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.

This Report examines the UK retail market for cooking and pasta sauces.

Cooking and pasta sauces are defined as sauces used during the preparation of food and those used in the kitchen, rather than at the table. They fall into three categories.

• Cook-in sauces (including cooking pastes) are added to ingredients at an early stage of cooking, such as chilli con carne or Bolognese. Stir-fry sauces and stir-fry pastes are a style of cook-in sauce primarily intended for use with a wok or quick frying style of cooking.

• Pour-over sauces are added to the meal just before the end of cooking, or poured over the top just before serving, such as parsley sauce, some pasta sauces and pesto sauce.

• Oven-bake sauces are added to other ingredients part way through cooking before the dish is placed in the oven.

The cooking and pasta sauces market may also be divided into wet sauces and dry sauces.

• Wet sauces are packaged in jars, cans, pouches or cartons and may be ambient or chilled.

• Dry sauces come in packets or cartons and require the addition of water or other liquid to rehydrate them before use.

• Table sauces such as tomato ketchup, apple sauce and cranberry sauce (for the purpose of this Report, soy sauce is treated as a table sauce and is excluded from the Report).

• Salad dressings such as salad cream and mayonnaise.

• Dips, including salsa dip.

• Sauce bases such as passata and concentrates such as tomato purée.

• Stocks and bouillons.

Sales of cooking and pasta sauces via catering or foodservice establishments are also excluded, although references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.