Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of protein, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of protein, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on animal protein
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on animal protein, July 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 4: Reasons for decreased consumption, October 2020
- Recovery
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- Figure 5: protein attributes, October 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Protein thrives while consumers cook at home
- Rising prices may cause purchase shifts
- Protein suits snack time
- #protein
- Make butcher-cut aisle ready
- Modernize red meat
- Meat, delivered
Market Size and Forecast
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- Protein sales spike
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and forecast of protein, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of protein, at current prices, 2015-25
- Key macroeconomic indicators
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- Figure 8: Consumer price index, % change September 2019-September 2020
- Figure 9: US consumer confidence, January 2019-October 2020
- Figure 10: US unemployment, April 2018-September 2020
- Impact of COVID-19 on protein
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on protein, July 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, red meat and fish and shellfish at current prices, 2008-2012
Segment Performance
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- All protein categories make gains from COVID-19
- Poultry faces operational challenges
- Red meat prices give sales a boost
- Fish and shellfish catch a tailwind
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of protein, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of protein, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Market Factors
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- Protein becomes political
- Protein prices remain volatile
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- Figure 15: Consumer Price Index, % change September 2019-September 2020
- Protein-packed snacking continues to thrive
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of salty snacks, by segment, 2014-24
- The health debate favors animal protein . . . for now
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- Figure 17: Protein opinions, March 2020
- Lab-made meat is coming
Social Media Analysis
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- Protein is a viral conversation
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- Figure 18: Protein queries, by age, October 1, 2019-September 30, 2020
- Wellness dominates plant-based protein conversations
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- Figure 19: Plant-based protein top hashtags, October 1, 2019-September 30, 2020
- White meat doesn’t spark conversation
- Red meat can’t shake the bad rap
Market Opportunities
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- Blur the lines between the butcher and the aisle
- Give red meat a contemporary spin
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- Figure 20: Red meat products
- Figure 21: Meat District social media posts
- Tap into high-protein snacking
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- Figure 22: Snack-sized protein products
- DTC programs make protein experiences feel premium
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- Figure 23: Butcher Box products
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- COVID-19 benefits brands, but does little to shake up market share
- Private label makes up a meaty share of the market
- Plant-based goes beyond burgers
Market Share
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- COVID-19 gives a lift to mature categories
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- Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of animal-based protein, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Private label catches big waves in seafood
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- Figure 25: Private label multi-outlet sales of animal-based protein, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Contemporary positioning from other red meat brands gain traction
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of animal-based protein, by “other” players, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- Power to the plants
- Protein gets claim-heavy on packaging
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- Figure 27: Top 20 claims across protein and meat replacement products, percent change 2018-2019
- Flavor forward
- Red meat players embrace Latin cuisine
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- Figure 28: Red meat products with Latin American influence
- Fish and seafood brands explore Asian flavors
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- Figure 29: Fish and shellfish products with Asian influence
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Protein is a dietary staple
- Health and price grant frequency permission
- More protein please
- Health is both a benefit and a concern
- Trade-offs between price and quality are happening
- All-natural is the new low fat
- Pork needs to make an impression
Protein Consumption
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- Protein is an essential part of US consumers’ diets
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- Figure 30: Protein consumption, repertoire, October 2020
- Appeal to younger consumers’ priorities
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- Figure 31: Protein consumption, by age, October 2020
- Price volatility necessitates a focus on value
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- Figure 32: Protein consumption, by household income, October 2020
Protein Consumption Frequency
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- Health, affordability drive consumption frequency
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- Figure 33: Protein consumption frequency, October 2020
- Young men are the hungriest for protein
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- Figure 34: Protein consumption frequency, by gender and age, October 2020
Change in Protein Consumption
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- A fifth of consumers have increased protein consumption
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- Figure 35: Change in protein consumption, October 2020
- Young men are eating more animal protein
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- Figure 36: Change in protein consumption, by age and gender, October 2020
Reasons for Increased Consumption
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- Consumers recognize the BFY advantages of protein
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- Figure 37: Reasons for increased consumption, October 2020
- Younger consumers are snacking more on protein
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- Figure 38: Reasons for increased consumption, by age, October 2020
- Men are experimenting with options
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- Figure 39: Reasons for increased consumption, by gender, October 2020
Reasons for Decreased Consumption
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- One in ten reduced protein consumption
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- Figure 40: Reasons for decreased consumption, October 2020
Protein Attributes
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- Consumers torn between quality and price
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- Figure 41: Protein attributes, October 2020
- DTC offerings may deliver on older consumers’ needs
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- Figure 42: Protein attributes, by age, October 2020
Healthy Protein
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- Healthy protein starts at the source
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- Figure 43: Healthy protein, October 2020
- Older consumers more influenced by BFY claims
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- Figure 44: Healthy protein, by age, October 2020
- Women more mindful of BFY claims
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- Figure 45: Healthy protein, by gender, October 2020
Protein Associations
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- Protein types have distinct “personalities”
- Tastes like chicken
- Red meat wins in fun, not function
- Special occasion status limits seafood
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- Figure 46: Protein associations, correspondence analysis, October 2020
- Figure 47: Protein associations, October 2020
- Improve pork perceptions with young consumers
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- Figure 48: Protein associations, by age, October 2020
Protein Attitudes
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- Bring quality and freshness to packaged meats
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- Figure 49: Protein attitudes, October 2020
- The conflict between price and quality gets stronger with age
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- Figure 50: Protein attitudes, by age, October 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Correspondence Analysis – Super Protein – Methodology
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- Methodology
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- Figure 51: Correspondence analysis – symmetrical map – protein associations, September 2020
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- Figure 52: Correspondence analysis – principal map – protein associations, September 2020
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of protein, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 54: Average household expenditures on protein, by segment, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of protein, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of fish and shellfish, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – Retail channels
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of protein, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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Appendix – Brands and Companies
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- Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of red meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 62: Multi-outlet sales of fish/shellfish, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- : Figure 63: Meat and fish types used over the last six months, November 2019-June 2020
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- Figure 64: Frozen and refrigerated chicken formats used over the last six months, November 2019-June 2020
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- Figure 65: Kinds of frozen prepared seafood and fish used over the last six months, November 2019-2020
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