Proteins of any kind are a popular source of nutrition among US consumers that have certainly felt the impact of COVID-19, with significant sales increases across category though coupled with supply chain challenges. While plant-based options are trending, consumption penetration is just a sliver in comparison to mainstream animal proteins like poultry and beef. Still, health is at the core of both increased and reduced consumption of animal proteins, reflecting not only the diverse nature of the products but also occasions, perceptions and barriers for each type. Quality and price top the list of important product features, outranking type, flavor, health and even convenience, indicating that while consumers are looking to remain engaged in both the indulgent and healthy side of the spectrum of animal proteins, premium products that deliver on value will resonate. This new Report not only measures consumption but also compares and contrasts consumer perceptions, attitudes and important product features that guide consumer behavior and choices across all proteins.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the animal protein market

• The impact of past recessions on protein consumption

• Product features important to choice

• Perceptions and attitudes by protein type

This Report covers the following categories:

• Poultry: including packaged, refrigerated, random-weight poultry; poultry sold at “butcher counters”; refrigerated/frozen unprocessed poultry; and refrigerated/frozen processed poultry

• Packaged red meat: including beef (ground beef, steaks, roasts and other cuts of beef), pork (pork chops, pork cutlets and other cuts) and other red meat like lamb, mutton, goat, bison, venison and other game meats

• Fish and shellfish: fresh, uncooked fish and shellfish, refrigerated or chilled shellfish, frozen, uncooked fish and shellfish, frozen prepared seafood, shelf-stable fish and shellfish and all other types of seafood, such as octopi and squid, which are included in the broader seafood category

• Plant-based proteins: plant-based alternatives to poultry, red meat and fish and shellfish

Excluded from the market size of this Report are:

• Animal-based jerky

• Prepared meals/meal kits that contain animal protein

• Lunch meats

• Bacon

• Hot dogs and sausages

• Meat, poultry or fish purchased from foodservice operators

• RTE prepared options (eg rotisserie chicken, meatballs, sliced brisket)

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April and remained in place through May and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, nonessential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations.

During reemergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. The continued spread of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans. Mintel anticipates the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021, until a vaccine is available.

This forecast and subsequent Report assumes the following:

• Unemployment will remain at 10.6% in 2020 before incrementally improving over the next five years.

• US GDP will decline 5.8% in 2020 and increase 4% in 2021, followed by continuous increases until 2025.

• Consumer confidence rests at 81.2 as of October 2020. This is a 9.4-point improvement from its low of 71.8 in April, indicating that consumer confidence is on an upswing and could improve throughout the rest of the year.