Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on cheese
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cheese, October 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 4: Reasons for increased consumption, August 2020
- Recovery
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- Figure 5: Cheese consumption repertoire, by parental status, August 2020
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- Figure 6: Cheese innovation to motivate trial, August 2020
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Cheese sales benefit from COVID-19
- Cream cheese faces a trial spike challenge
- Consumers are snacking more often
- Unemployment and dairy prices remain high
- Elevate solo snacking to make up for lost social gatherings
Market Size and Forecast
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- Cheese makes strong, yet unsustainable, COVID-19 gains
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Macroeconomic data
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- Figure 9: Expected US Unemployment, 2019-25
- Figure 10: Consumer confidence index, January 2019-August 2020
- Impact of COVID-19 on cheese
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- Figure 11: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cheese, October 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 12: Total market sales and forecast of cheese*, at current prices, 2006-11
Segment Performance
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- COVID-19 spurs every cheese segment back to growth
- Cream cheese may face trial spike fallout
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Factors
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- Snacking continues to be a growing opportunity
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- Figure 15: Snacking habits, September 2019
- Dairy prices are rising
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- Figure 16: US Unemployment, May 2018-September 2020
- Demographic shifts call for increased attention to non-parents
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- Figure 17: Households, by presence of related children, 2009-19
- Ethical concerns challenge multiple areas of the category
Market Opportunities
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- Strengthen ties to health
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- Figure 18: Cheese products with better-for-you positioning
- Facilitate flavor exploration
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- Figure 19: Roth Cheese products
- Encourage indulging with “fancy cheese” every day
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- Figure 20: Cheese snacks
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Kraft Heinz still tops the cheese market in 2020
- Private label sales increase 19%
- Snack sized cheeses flood aisles
- Dairy-free continues expanding
Market Share
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- Kraft keeps brand lead, but changes are coming
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- Figure 21: US multi-outlet sales of cheese, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Private label gains sales and share
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- Figure 22: Sales growth of cheese, by private label, 2019-20
Competitive Strategies
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- Brands continue to target snacking by going small
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- Figure 23: Cheese snacks
- Despite a small audience, dairy-free cheese keeps growing
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- Figure 24: Mulo sales of non-dairy cheese snacks, rolling 52 weeks 2019
- Cottage cheese brands work to distance from diet
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- Figure 25: Cottage cheese verbatims
- Figure 26: Cottage cheese products
- Reinforce provenance as a selling point
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- Figure 27: Cheese snacks
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Nearly all households eat cheese
- Kids spur deeper category participation
- Versatility at the core of category growth
- Remind consumers of cheese’s inherent health benefits
- Grow the snacking occasion…
- …especially for premium and unique products
- Dairy-free faces taste and price challenges
Cheese Consumption
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- Cheese is a household staple
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- Figure 28: Cheese consumption, repertoire, August 2020
- Don’t rest your laurels on families
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- Figure 29: Cheese consumption repertoire, by parental status, August 2020
- Engage the ends of the age spectrum in different cheese types
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- Figure 30: Cheese consumption, by age, August 2020
- Value can mean many things in a recession
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- Figure 31: Cheese consumption, by household income, August 2020
Types of Cheese Consumed
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- Recipe-ready options dominate
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- Figure 32: Kinds of cheese eaten, November 2019-June 2020
- Cheddar a fan favorite
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- Figure 33: Kinds of cheese eaten, November 2019-June 2020
Household Cheese Consumption
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- Kids are an integral part of household consumption
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- Figure 34: Household cheese consumption, August 2020
Change in Cheese Consumption
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- Cheese growth outpaces attrition
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- Figure 35: Change in cheese consumption, August 2020
- Gen Zers less likely to increase consumption than Millennials
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- Figure 36: Change in cheese consumption, by age, August 2020
- Parents increasing their consumption
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- Figure 37: Change in cheese consumption, by parental status, August 2020
- Cater to the adventurous
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- Figure 38: Change in cheese consumption, by food and drink segmentation, August 2020
Reasons for Increased Consumption
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- Versatility and variety fuel growth
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- Figure 39: Reasons for increased consumption, August 2020
Reasons for Decreased Consumption
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- Health is at the core of consumption reduction
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- Figure 40: Reasons for decreased consumption, August 2020
Cheese Occasions
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- Meals outperform snacking dayparts
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- Figure 41: Cheese occasions, August 2020
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- Figure 42: Cheese snacks
- Young consumers underindex in cheese snacking
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- Figure 43: Cheese use for snacking occasions, by age, August 2020
- Figure 44: Share of snacking, by age, November 2018
- Refresh cheese snacks with adult needs in mind
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- Figure 45: Cheese occasions, by parental status, August 2020
- Figure 46: Cheese social media marketing
Cheese Attributes by Occasion
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- Different cheeses fit different occasions
- A social occasion of one
- A case for familiar flavors
- BFY snacking
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- Figure 47: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Cheese occasion attributes, August 2020
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- Figure 48: Cheese occasion attributes, August 2020
- Dads a candidate for elevated snacking
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- Figure 49: Cheese attributes by occasion, by age, August 2020
Cheese Attitudes
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- Cheese can establish even stronger connections to both health and comfort
- Dairy-free cheese needs to address health, price and taste
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- Figure 50: Cheese attitudes, August 2020
- Convince younger consumers of health benefits
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- Figure 51: Cheese attitudes, by age, August 2020
- Consumers under 44 are the audience for ethical messaging
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- Figure 52: Cheese attitudes, by generation, August 2020
Interest in Cheese Innovation
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- Innovation in taste leads interest
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- Figure 53: Cheese innovation to motivate trial, August 2020
- A look into flavor opportunities
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- Figure 54: Interest and experience with savory dairy flavors, April 2020
- Figure 55: Interest and experience with sweet dairy flavors, April 2020
- Pair adventure and health with snacking
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- Figure 56: TURF Analysis – Innovation to motivate trial, August 2020
- Figure 57: Tillamook cheeseboards
- Most innovation should remain approachable, accessible
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- Figure 58: Innovation to motivate trial, by household income, August 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 74: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 76: US supermarket sales of cheese, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 77: US sales of cheese through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 78: US multi-outlet sales of natural cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 79: US multi-outlet sales of natural cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 80: US multi-outlet sales of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 81: US multi-outlet sales of cottage cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Food/Drink Consumer Segmentation
TURF Analysis – Cheese – Methodology
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- Methodology
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- Figure 82: TURF Analysis – Innovation to drive trial, August 2020
Correspondence Analysis – Cheese – Methodology
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- Methodology
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- Figure 83: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Cheese occasion attributes, August 2020
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- Figure 84: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Cheese occasion attributes, August 2020
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