Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US revenue from box office admissions, at current prices, 2015-21
- Impact of COVID-19 on movie theaters
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on movie theaters, November 2020
- Opportunities and challenges
- The need for theaters has been reset
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- Figure 3: Changing movie viewing habits, September 2020
- Overcome safety concerns by emphasizing sanitation protocols
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- Figure 4: What will make people comfortable going to movie theaters, September 2020
- Emphasize the joys of the moviegoing experience through drive-ins, independent theaters
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward drive-ins and independent movie theaters, September 2020
- Movie theaters face mounting competition from home entertainment
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- Figure 6: Recency of movie rentals and streaming services, September 2020
- Fit the distribution strategy to the movie
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- Figure 7: Movie genres to see in theaters, September 2020
- What’s next
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Movie theater revenue may never fully recover
- Movie theaters’ value hurt by uncertainty and competition
- Changing movie landscape can provide opportunities
Market Size and Forecast
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- A devastating year that could be impossible to fully recover from
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- Figure 8: Total US revenue from box office admissions, at current prices, 2015-21
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- Figure 9: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2019-25 (prepared in October 2020)
- Impact of COVID-19 on movie theaters
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- Figure 10: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on movie theaters, November 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
- Movies remained a great escape through turbulent times
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- Figure 11: Box office and concession revenue, at current prices, 2006-11
- Prior economic downturn shows that people stay close to home but also look to treat themselves
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- Figure 12: Consumer spending on leisure and entertainment, by market segments, at current prices, 2000-25
Market Factors
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- Worry of contracting virus remains high
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- Figure 13: US consumers’ concern for contracting COVID-19, March-September 2020
- Going to the movies is more anticipated than some other leisure activities
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- Figure 14: US consumers’ consideration of future activities, June 25-July 7, 2020
- A timeline of a tumultuous year at the movies
- March 2020: movie theaters close
- Late spring/early summer: drive-ins and outdoor screenings pop up
- Mid/late summer: pilot programs at theaters with older movies
- August and September 2020: new movies come back to mixed results
- The rest of 2020: delays and hesitation from major studios
- Rising ticket prices don’t match value consumers put on movie theaters
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- Figure 15: Average movie ticket price, 2010-19
- Premium rentals challenge movie theaters
- COVID-19 shutdowns could slow more movie productions
- Streaming services have caught up to pay TV
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- Figure 16: Video entertainment services used, May 2020
- TV shows have become stiffer competition
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- Figure 17: TV shows vs movies, September 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Emphasize nostalgia to regain interest of older moviegoers
- Experiment with different distribution strategies
- Independent theaters can be positioned to reach cinephiles
- Course correct upward trend of ticket prices to emphasize value
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Three theater chains face an uphill battle
- Theaters find ways to engage cinephiles in spite of COVID-19
Market Performance: Movie Theater Chains
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- Three chains dominated US market before COVID-19
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- Figure 18: Theater chain visited most frequently, by share of moviegoers, September 2019
- AMC
- Regal
- Cinemark
Competitive Strategies
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- Emphasizing specific safety protocols above all else
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- Figure 19: @amctheatres Safe and Clean Instagram post, September 2020
- Rent out the whole theater
- Theater chains and distributors work together for hybrid home and theater model
- Focus on local appeal of movie theaters
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- Figure 20: @malcotheatres1915 Save Your Cinema Instagram post, July 2020
- Finding ways to support theaters outside of physical visits
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- Figure 21: @musicboxchicago concessions Instagram post, April 2020
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Consumers driven by experiences and value
- Moviegoing changed drastically in 2020
- 2021 will be an important signal for the future of movies
- Safety concerns keep people away
- Streaming is the new standard
- Digital rentals favor convenience over exclusivity
- Comedies, action movies can bring people back
Trend Drivers and their Impact on Movie Theaters
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- Figure 22: Mintel Trend Drivers and Pillars
- Technology
- Surroundings
- Value
- Experiences
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Seeing Movies in 2020
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- Alternate movie venues couldn’t make up for theaters’ absence in 2020
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- Figure 23: Out-of-home movie attendance in 2020, September 2020
- COVID-19 shifted how people will watch movies
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- Figure 24: Changing movie habits in 2020, September 2020
- Major chains can bring more people back
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- Figure 25: Visiting movie chains vs independent theaters, September 2020
- Drive-ins, independent theaters can invigorate cinephiles
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- Figure 26: Attitudes toward drive-ins and independent movie theaters, September 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Theaters Beyond 2020
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- Theaters need to prove their worth to bring people back
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- Figure 27: The need to see movies in theaters, September 2020
- Tradition and nostalgia can be a powerful force
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- Figure 28: Attitudes toward movie theaters’ place in culture, September 2020
- Hesitation could be quelled by 2021 releases
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- Figure 29: Attitudes toward movies in 2021, September 2020
- Put the movies and artists front and center
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- Figure 30: Attitudes toward movies and creators, September 2020
What Will Bring People Back to Theaters
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- Safety means the most to hesitant movie viewers
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- Figure 31: What will make people comfortable going to movie theaters, September 2020
- Vaccine will calm fears, but not for everybody
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- Figure 32: Hesitance to returning to movie theaters, all adults vs movie viewers and out-of-home moviegoers, September 2020
- Concerns over health and value make movie theaters a difficult proposition
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- Figure 33: Factors contributing to movie theater hesitancy, September 2020
Competing with Home Entertainment: Streaming
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- Streaming became standard in lockdown
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- Figure 34: Recency of movie viewing on streaming service, September 2020
- Large content libraries made for wise investments
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- Figure 35: Home movie investments during COVID-19, September 2020
- People can wait for better home entertainment viewing experiences
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- Figure 36: Home viewing behaviors and preferences, September 2020
- The quality of movies keeps theaters relevant
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward movie quality in theaters, September 2020
Competing with Home Entertainment: Rentals
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- Digital rentals prove value during lockdown
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- Figure 38: Recency of movie rentals and purchases, September 2020
- Amazon dominated rental market
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- Figure 39: Services used to digitally rent or buy movies, September 2020
- Premium rentals will not be a new standard
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- Figure 40: Attitudes toward movie rentals, September 2020
Movie Genres to See in Theaters
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- Genre preferences highlight opportunities for distribution differentiation
- Comedy, action still have a place in theaters
- Independent movies will live at home
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- Figure 41: Movie genres to see in theaters, September 2020
- Gearing genres toward age, gender show what will work in theaters
- Men like things that blow up, women like quieter movies
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- Figure 42: Movie genres to see in theaters, by gender, September 2020
- Young moviegoers want excitement on the screen
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- Figure 43: Movie genres to see in theaters, by age, September 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
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