Movie theaters have faced an uphill battle for the last decade, but COVID-19 has gutted the market by simultaneously scaring people away from public venues and making home entertainment options more attractive, even after theaters reopened their doors. Movie theaters’ position as the standard form of film distribution has been usurped by streaming services and digital rentals than have taken on more prominence. However, theaters will survive though will become more of a special occasion than a regular routine by appealing to avid movie fans even as the casual moviegoers find value elsewhere.

• The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the movie theater market

• What the future of moviegoing will look like

• Why consumers have devalued the movie theater experience

• How safety and consistency can start to bring people back to theaters

This Report was written in October 2020. Consumer research was fielded in September 2020 and reflects consumers’ attitudes and behaviors toward movie theaters as COVID-19 led to delayed theatrical releases and a patchwork opening and reclosing of some theaters due to rising and falling cases of the virus.

For the purposes of this Report, Mintel defines movie theaters as commercial cinema venues. Only sites whose primary day-to-day function is the commercial display of cinema fall under this definition.

Other venues that license films such as drive-ins, museums, libraries and restaurants are also included in this Report, but do not fall under the definition of “movie theater.”

Digital movie rentals/purchases and streaming services are also discussed but are not the main focus of the Report. For more on these platforms, see Digital Video: Incl Impact of COVID-19 – US, July 2020.

The term “movie viewer” is used throughout the Report to refer to adults aged 18+ who watch movies. A “moviegoer” is an adult who watches movies in a movie theater, drive-in or other movie venue outside of their home.

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US. Movie theaters closed their doors shortly after the national emergency was declared.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April, remaining in place through May, and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, non-essential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations.

During re-emergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. In some areas of the country, movie theaters began to reopen in June 2020, with most states allowing the opening of movie theaters by August 2020. Following disappointing box office receipts during these summer months, distributors further delayed most major releases that were set to reach theaters in 2020, prompting some theaters to close their doors again as they await the arrival of new movies to the big screen.

The analysis provided reflects an estimated range of the market’s prospects in the light of the upheaval caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Our economic assumptions are based on CBO 10-year economic projections released on July 2, 2020. The CBO expects US GDP to fall by 5.8% in 2020 and recover to 4.0% growth in 2021.Unemployment estimates from the CBO indicate a 10.6% rate for 2020 and declining to 8.4% for 2021, which is slightly more positive than initial expectations (11.5% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021) though expectations are that it will remain above 5% through 2025.