Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of color cosmetics, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on color cosmetics
- Opportunities and challenges
- Clean beauty accelerates, demanding a new level of transparency
- Develop products reflective of lifestyle shifts
- Life online challenges market
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- Figure 3: Select behaviors toward color cosmetics, by adults aged 18-24, May 2020
- Emphasize convenience claims to reach key demographics
- Self-esteem and joy are the cornerstones of cosmetics
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- Figure 4: Benefits sought, May 2020
- Embrace virtual communication to connect with consumers
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- Figure 5: Changes in behavior – More, by age, May 2020
- What’s next
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Color cosmetics will take a hit
- Expect steep declines across segments in 2020
- Embrace the shifting perception of beauty
- Retailers and brands take a stance on social awareness
Market Size and Forecast
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- Color cosmetics will take a hit
- Cosmetic market will see a “mask effect”
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of color cosmetics, at current prices, 2015-25
Market Breakdown
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- Expect steep declines across segments in 2020
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- Figure 7: Percent change of total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by segment, 2016-20 (est)
- Facial cosmetics continue to dominate…for now
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- Figure 8: Share of total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by segment, at current prices, 2020
Market Perspective
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- Embrace the shifting perception of beauty
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- Figure 9: Instagram Post – @sibyllete
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- Figure 10: Instagram Post – @Guccibeauty
- Social media drives cosmetic trends
- Retailers and brands bet big with clean
Market Factors
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- Retailers and brands take a stance on social awareness
- Demographic shifts will change landscape
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- Figure 11: Repertoire analysis of product usage, by adults aged 18-24, race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
- Small/indie brands face supply chain challenges
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Key players see declines due to COVID-19
- Cosmetics join the wellness revolution
- Life online challenges market
- Tap into the gamer community to engage consumers virtually
Company and Brand Sales of Color Cosmetics
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- Key players see declines due to COVID-19
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- Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales of color cosmetics, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
What’s Working
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- Products that mimic professional services see a boost
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- Figure 13: MULO sales of select of NYX lip gloss and KISS false eyelashes, current 52-week period ending April 19, 2020
- Photo finishes, FTW
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- Figure 14: Multi-outlet sales of Revlon and Wet n Wild foundation, by companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Cosmetics tap into the wellness revolution
What’s Struggling
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- All categories take a hit due to COVID-19
- Life online challenges market
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- Figure 15: Select behaviors toward color cosmetics, by adults aged 18-24, May 2020
- 2-in-1 products challenge multistep routines
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- Figure 16: MULO sale of Burt’s Bees Lip & Cheek Stain, 52-week period ending April 19, 2020
What to Watch
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- Tap into the gamer community to engage consumers virtually
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- Figure 17: Instagram post – MAC x Sims 4
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- Figure 18: YouTube – Augmented touch
- COVID-19 increases demand for new packaging formats
- COVID-19 ushers in a new era of clean beauty and sustainability
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- Figure 19: Select attitudes toward color cosmetics, by adults aged 18-24, May 2020
- Eclectic minimalism will drive beauty trends
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- Figure 20: Instagram Post – @hypebaebeauty
- Figure 21: Instagram Post – @whowhatwear
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Product usage by age “highlights” preferences
- Most eye makeup products see usage declines
- Glossy looks have made a comeback
- Self-esteem and joy are the cornerstones of cosmetics
- Premium brands will be impacted by recession
- COVID-19 will challenge market due to physical try-on hurdles
- COVID-19 impacts category spend, but key groups remain engaged
Facial Makeup Usage
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- Majority of women stick to basics
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- Figure 22: Facial makeup usage, May 2020
- Steady declines in usage point to changes in trends
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- Figure 23: Facial makeup usage, April 2018, July 2019 and May 2020
- Product usage by age “highlights” preferences
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- Figure 24: Instagram post – @Namvo
- Figure 25: Select facial makeup usage, by age, May 2020
- Black women are increasing facial cosmetic usage
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- Figure 26: Facial makeup usage, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
Eye Makeup Usage
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- Mascara remains the most used cosmetic product
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- Figure 27: Eye makeup usage, May 2020
- Most formats see declines
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- Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of Maybelline Snapscara, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 29: Eye makeup usage, April 2018, July 2019 and May 2020
- Eye cosmetics change shape
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- Figure 30: Eye makeup usage, by age, May 2020
- Hispanic women demonstrate high engagement
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- Figure 31: Eye makeup usage, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
Lip Makeup Usage
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- Traditional formats drive usage
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- Figure 32: Lip makeup usage, May 2020
- Lip product usage is down, reflective of category overall
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- Figure 33: Lip product usage, April 2018, July 2019 and May 2020
- Glossy looks have made a comeback
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- Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of NYX lip gloss, by companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 35: Lip product usage, by age, May 2020
- Black and Hispanic adults drive usage of lip products
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- Figure 36: Lip product usage, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
Benefits Sought
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- Majority of consumers want a natural appearance
- Self-esteem and joy are the cornerstones of cosmetics
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- Figure 37: Benefits sought, May 2020
- More than makeup: 18-24 year olds use products to express their personality, find joy
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- Figure 39: TikTok – @Benefitcosmetics
- Figure 40: Benefits sought, by age, May 2020
- Hispanic women motivated by enjoyment, Black women are motivated by community
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- Figure 41: Benefits sought, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
Behaviors toward Color Cosmetics
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- Germs and sanitation are concerns for many women
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- Figure 42: Behaviors toward color cosmetics, May 2020
- Young adults actively engaged…even at home
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- Figure 43: Instagram Post – @Rodanandfields
- Figure 44: Behaviors toward color cosmetics – I do this, by age, May 2020
- Focus on convenience claims to reach key demographics
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- Figure 45: Behaviors toward color cosmetics – I do this, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2020
Attitudes toward Color Cosmetics
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- Premium brands may be impacted by recession
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- Figure 46: Instagram post – @Covergirl
- Figure 47: Attitudes toward color cosmetics, May 2020
- Under 44 year olds concerned about brand values
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward color cosmetics, by age, May 2020
Purchase Drivers
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- COVID-19 will challenge market due to physical try-on hurdles
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- Figure 49: Purchase influencers, May 2020
- Reach 18-34 year olds with expanded digital services
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- Figure 50: Purchase influencers, by age, May 2020
Changes in Behavior
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- COVID-19 impacts category spend, but key groups remain engaged
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- Figure 51: Changes in behavior, May 2020
- Young adults stream beauty content during COVID-19
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- Figure 52: Key drivers of watching makeup tutorials due to COVID-19, May 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of color cosmetics, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by segment, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales of eye cosmetics, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 57: Total US retail sales of facial cosmetics, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of lip cosmetics, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales of color cosmetics, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of eye cosmetics, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 62: Multi-outlet sales of facial cosmetics, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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- Figure 63: Multi-outlet sales of lip cosmetics, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 64: Purchase influencers, TURF analysis, May 2020
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- Figure 65: Purchase influencers, TURF analysis – Table, May 2020
- Key driver analysis
- Interpretation of results
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- Figure 66: Key drivers of impact of COVID-19 – Key driver output, May 2020
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