Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Cycling had appeared on target for gradual growth in 2020, but COVID-19 has created huge volatility
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- Figure 1: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
- Figure 2: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
- E-bike sales have continued to surge, however COVID-19 will hit the segment hard
- Impact of COVID-19 on cycling
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- Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bicycle sales, short, medium and long-term, 11 May 2020
- Companies and brands
- Halfords’ cycling sales up 3% in the 40 weeks to 3 January 2020
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- Figure 4: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, March 2020
- The consumer
- Cycling participation up 5 percentage points
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- Figure 5: Participation in cycling, 2014-20
- Road bikes are catching up MTBs
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- Figure 6: Bicycle ownership, 2017-20
- Bike purchase intentions had risen prior to the crisis
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- Figure 7: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019 and February 2020
- Halfords, Amazon and independent bike shops are the most popular channels
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- Figure 8: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, February 2020
- Service-led bike shops
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- Figure 9: Incentives to use local bike shops, February 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Cycling
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- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 10: Expected impact of COVID-19 on bicycle sales, short, medium and long-term, 11 May 2020
- Opportunities and threats
- A volatile year for bike sales in 2020
- …but the impact of the crisis on cycling participation is complex
- Fears of travelling on public transport could boost cycling once lockdown restrictions are relaxed…
- …and limited leisure options have encouraged families to rediscover the joy of cycling
- Indoor cycling trainers have seen a spike in sales
- The crisis may accelerate the online and D2C cycling trends…
- …creating further challenges (and opportunities) for bike shops
- Local bike shops at the heart of their communities
- Last mile delivery trend also set to increase
- COVID-19 could be a catalyst for healthier lifestyles…
- …and a renewed focus on environmental issues
- Impact on the market
- COVID-19 is expected to lead to an 8% drop in bicycle sales during 2020
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- Figure 11: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
- Economic assumptions
- Shifts in consumer behaviour
- Overall leisure spend has slumped…
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- Figure 12: Expectations for leisure spending over the next month, March/April 2020
- …But cycling is likely to recover quicker than other leisure sectors
- Cycling has fallen during the week but surged at the weekend
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- Figure 13: Road transport flows in England, by mode, 16 March-26 April 2020
- Health & wellbeing and the environment have become higher priorities
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- Figure 14: Areas which have become a higher priority during the COVID-19 crisis, April 2020
- …especially for key cycling demographics
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- Figure 15: Areas which have become a higher priority during the COVID-19 crisis, by age group, April 2020
- The relative affluence of cyclists will help shield the market…
- …but the family market could be most impacted
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the market
- Severe economic contraction expected in 2020
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- Figure 16: People’s confidence about their personal financial situation over the next 12 months, January-April 2020
- Rising unemployment will impact on discretionary spend
- The last recession had a relatively short-term impact on cycling
- COVID-19: UK context
Issues and Insights
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- Encouraging families to bond by bike
- The facts
- The implications
- Socially conscious cyclists
- The facts
- The implications
- Mobile call-out
- The facts
- The implications
- Performance cycling bundles
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- 2.5 million bike sales in 2019
- PAC sales account for half of total cycling spend
- Rising expectations quashed by COVID-19 crisis
- E-bike volumes increased an estimated 40% in 2019
- Bee Network could be the future for UK cycling
- Impact of the crisis on cycling
- The UK’s urban mobility revolution
Market Size and Forecast
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- Bike volumes flat and spend up 2% in 2019
- Sales appeared poised for new growth cycle in 2020…
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- Figure 17: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value, 2014-19
- …but COVID-19 crisis has intervened
- E-bike volume sales grew an estimated 40% in 2019
- Longer-term growth prospects are good but infrastructure is the key to unlocking potential
- Forecast
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- Figure 18: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
- Figure 19: UK bicycles market, value forecast (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
- Figure 20: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value (adjusted for COVID-19 as at 11 May 2020), 2014-24
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- Figure 21: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
- Figure 22: UK bicycles market, value forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
- Figure 23: Trends in bicycle sales, by volume and value (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
- Economic assumptions
Market Background
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- COVID-19
- Cycling growth lags walking and indoor fitness
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- Figure 24: Adult participation in leisure/sporting activity in England, May 2016/17-May 2018/19
- Less than 2% of journeys are taken by bike still…
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- Figure 25: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2008-18
- …but average mileage amongst cyclists has increased
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- Figure 26: Average distance cycled per cyclist in England, 2006-18
- Safety concerns remain the main barrier to increased participation
- £2.4 billion to be spent on cycling from 2017-21 but more funding is needed to meet short-term targets
- Manchester’s Bee Network could be the national blueprint
- The urban mobility revolution
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Halfords reports rise in cycling revenue but closes Cycle Republic
- Evans retains 52 stores despite fears of heavier closures
- Mixed performance from the leading bike suppliers
- Brompton going from strength to strength
- Electric Raleigh
- Kickr launch benefits from lockdown
- Bamboo and new folding bikes
Cycling Suppliers and Retailers
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- Halfords
- Evans Cycles
- Giant, Specialized and Trek
- Other leading bicycle suppliers
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- Figure 27: Selected companies in the UK cycling market, by latest reported revenues, March 2020
- Independent bike shops
- Generalist sports and other retailers
- WiggleCRC
- Go Outdoors
- Decathlon
- Other retailers
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Kickr arrives just in time as indoor cycling moves up a gear
- Indoor cycling fashion
- Sustainable cycling
- Folding innovations
- Try-before-you-buy e-bikes
- DIY e-bike
- Cargo bikes for kids and canines
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cycling participation rises again but still lags 2015 levels
- Road bikes poised to overtake MTBs?
- 11% of regular (weekly) cyclists own an e-bike
- 70% of parents say their kids own a bike
- Pre-crisis purchase intentions showed a significant increase
- Halfords is used by four in 10 cyclists
- Bike shops can fight back with a service-led focus
Cycling Participation
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- Lift in cycling participation
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- Figure 28: Participation in cycling, 2014-20
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- Figure 29: Regular participation in cycling (weekly or more often), 2014-20
- Gender gap remains wide…
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- Figure 30: Any participation in cycling, by gender, 2016-20
- …but some evidence of higher female and over-45 participation
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- Figure 31: Gender and age profile of current and potential cyclists, February 2020
- Other demographic factors
Bicycle Ownership
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- Road bike ownership is catching up MTBs
- E-bike ownership has risen to 11% of ‘regular cyclists’
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- Figure 32: Bicycle ownership, 2017-20
- Female e-bike ownership shows a slight rise
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- Figure 33: Bicycle ownership, by gender, February 2020
- 5-11 year olds are the likeliest to own a kids’ bike
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- Figure 34: Ownership of children’s bikes, February 2020
Bicycle Purchase
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- 17% of cyclists bought a bike in the last 12-month period
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- Figure 35: Purchase of last bicycle, January 2019 and February 2020
- Almost one in four parents bought a kids’ bike in last 12 months
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- Figure 36: Purchase of last children’s bicycle, February 2020
- Rise in bike purchase intentions shown in February 2020
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- Figure 37: Adult bicycle purchase intentions, January 2019 and February 2020
- 25-34 group have the strongest purchase intentions
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- Figure 38: Children’s bicycle purchase intentions, February 2020
Bicycle Purchase Drivers
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- Price and product quality are the highest priorities
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- Figure 39: Bicycle purchasing factors, February 2020
- Ethical/environmental factors are important especially for younger cyclists
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- Figure 40: Bicycle purchasing factors, by age, February 2020
Cycling Retailers
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- 40% of cyclists shopped in Halfords in the last 12-month period
- Around one in four cyclists use local independent bike shops for bike or PAC purchases
- Amazon leads the generalist push into the cycling market
- 13% of cyclists shop at second-hand retailers
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- Figure 41: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, February 2020
- Amazon and Halfords are the most popular channels for bike purchases
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- Figure 42: Cycling retailers used to buy a bicycle* and parts, clothing and accessories**, February 2020
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- Figure 43: Cycling retailers used to buy either a bicycle or parts, clothing and accessories, by age, February 2020
Bike Shops
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- Bike shops are embracing services and the experience economy
- Maintenance classes would be the most popular service
- One in five cyclists would use a mobile call-out service
- E-bike expertise offers growing opportunities
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- Figure 44: Incentives to use local bike shops, February 2020
- Younger cyclists are most likely to be drawn by experiential offer
- Bundling performance products with training/advice sessions
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- Figure 45: Incentives to use local bike shops, by age, February 2020
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 46: UK bicycles market, volume forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2019-24
- Figure 47: UK bicycles market, value forecast (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2019-24
- Forecast methodology
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