Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Continuously estimated negative growth with double digits
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- Figure 2: Sales volume and growth rate of total new passenger car market, 2014-19(Est)
- Sales volume for total new passenger cars will experience its recover by 2022
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- Figure 3: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
- The market share of MPV keeps shrinking, while SUV and sedan are harnessing their advantages
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- Figure 4: Market share of car body type, 2014-19 Est
- Figure 5: Best- and worst-case forecast of petrol car sales volume, 2014-24
- The growth of new energy car sales slowed down but still had an increase in market share
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- Figure 6: Best- and worst-case forecast of battery electric passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
- Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast of plug-in hybrid passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
- Companies and brands
- German and Japanese brands in the top ten are gaining more shares, while domestic brands are having a hard time
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- Figure 8: Company brand market share, 2016-19 October
- New faces in the NEV top ten brands: ORA and Volkswagen
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- Figure 9: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2016-19 October
- Lexus and Cadillac are growing fast in the luxury car market in 2019
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- Figure 10: Market share of luxury car brands, by volume, 2016-19 October
- The consumer
- Consumers are lowering their car purchasing budget
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- Figure 11: Monthly household income, by car purchasing budget, 2017-19
- Only 25% of consumers prioritise brand/ logo
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- Figure 12: Consideration process, October 2019
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- Figure 13: Consideration process – selected item, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
- 47% of surveyed consumers’ first choice is a new energy car
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- Figure 14: Energy type priority – first choice, October 2019
- PHEV tend to be most consumers’ second choice, especially for consumers who take BEV as their priority
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- Figure 15: Energy type priority – second choice, by energy type priority – first choice, October 2019
- Young consumers tend to be more petrol-only minded while older consumers are more NEV-only minded
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- Figure 16: Energy type priority, by age, October 2019
- 4S stores and brands’ official websites more important for confirmation than searching and filtering
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- Figure 17: Importance of information source, October 2019
- Consumers with budget below RMB200,000 rely more on friends and family, while consumers with a higher budget care more about voice on social media like KOLs
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- Figure 18: Importance of information source – when I don’t have wanted models, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
- 4S store is still the dominating channel for test driving
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- Figure 19: Test driving channels, October 2019
- NEV-only consumers tend to try various channels for test drives, especially online
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- Figure 20: Test driving channels, by energy type priority, October 2019
- Car stands for privacy and fun
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- Figure 21: Meaning of car ownership, October 2019
- Consumers with higher household income are looking for a display of their personal tastes
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- Figure 22: Meaning of car ownership, by monthly household income, October 2019
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- Figure 23: Car purchasing attitudes – selected item, by energy type priority, October 2019
- Brands origin and brand class is not as important as before
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- Figure 24: Car purchasing attitudes – selected items, by monthly household income, October 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- NEV intended buyers don’t want to miss out
- The facts
- The implications
- Domestic and new joiners are easier targets when brand advantages start to blur
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 25: Lincoln Navigator commercial
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- Figure 26: Comments on Mercedes E class from Laosiji
- Consumers’ concern about resale price of NEVs stands out
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Continuously estimated negative growth with double digits
- Petrol car sales need three to five years to recover previous record
- The growth of new energy car sales slowed down but still had an increase in market share
Market Size and Forecast
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- Continuously estimated negative growth with double digits
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- Figure 27: Sales volume and growth rate of total new passenger car market, 2014-19(Est)
- Sales volumes for total new passenger cars will recover by 2022
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- Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecast of total new passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
Market Factors
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- New emission standard push for the price cut, especially for luxury brands
- Car sales tax back to 10%
- Subsidy policies are being phased out
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- Figure 29: Latest new energy passenger car subsidy policy, 2018 vs 2019
- Figure 30: Energy density multipliers, 2018 vs 2019
Market Segmentation
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- The market share of MPV keeps shrinking, while SUV and sedan are harnessing their advantages
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- Figure 31: Market share of car body type, 2014-19 Est
- Petrol car sales need 3-5 years to recover previous record
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- Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast of petrol car sales volume, 2014-24
- Growth in new energy car sales slowing, but market share still on the up
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- Figure 33: Share of sales volume of new energy passenger cars among new passenger car sales, 2014-19est
- Figure 34: Market share of BEV and PHEV in the NEV market, 2014-19 Est
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast of battery electric passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast of plug-in hybrid passenger car sales volume, 2014-24
- The growth of luxury car sales dropped to single digit
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- Figure 37: Sales volume and growth rate of luxury cars and total new passenger cars in China, 2013-19est
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- German and Japanese brands in the top ten are gaining greater share, while domestic brands are having a hard time
- More options in body type, energy type and price range
Market Share
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- German and Japanese brands in the top ten are gaining share; domestic brands are having a hard time
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- Figure 38: Company brand market share, 2016-19 October
- New faces in the NEV top ten brands, ORA and Volkswagen
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- Figure 39: New energy passenger car brand market share, 2016-19 October
- Lexus and Cadillac are growing fast in the luxury car market in 2019
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- Figure 40: Market share of luxury car brands, by volume, 2016-19 October
Competitive Strategies
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- Apply features of popular models to meet various demands
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- Figure 41: Diversified versions of Tiguan
- Giving consumers more assurance with NEV models altered from brands’ top-selling models
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- Figure 42: NEV models from Volkswagen
- Figure 43: NEV models from BMW
- Attract consumers with more models in more price ranges
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- Figure 44: Share of sales volume, by price range
Who’s Innovating?
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- Autonomous minibus with tailored content screens
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- Figure 45: Social Cart SC-1 of Sony
- Immersing game space in transportation
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- Figure 46: The e-tron room: the Future Paradox
- From Smartphone to Co-driver
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- Figure 47: Carrio
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Only 25% of consumers place brand/ logo as the primary consideration
- 47% surveyed consumers’ first choice is a new energy car
- Car stands for privacy and fun
Consideration Process
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- Consumers are lowering their car purchasing budgets
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- Figure 48: Monthly household income, by car purchasing budget, 2017-19
- Only 25% of consumers place brand/ logo as the primary purchase consideration
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- Figure 49: Consideration process, October 2019
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- Figure 50: Consideration process – selected item, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
- The consideration of “Energy --> Body type --> Brand” is the most affirmed process
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- Figure 51: Consideration process, October 2019
Energy Type Priority
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- 47% surveyed consumers’ first choice is a new energy car
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- Figure 52: Energy type priority – first choice, October 2019
- PHEVs tend to be most consumers’ second choice, especially where BEV is a priority
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- Figure 53: Energy type priority – second choice, by energy type priority – first choice, October 2019
- Young consumers tend to be more petrol-only minded while older consumers are more NEV-only minded
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- Figure 54: Energy type priority, by age, October 2019
- NEV is more likely to be the first choice for consumers with high household income
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- Figure 55: Energy type priority – first choice, by monthly household income, October 2019
- Petrol car is 70% surveyed consumers’ choice with car purchasing budget below RMB100,000
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- Figure 56: Energy type priority, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
Importance of Information Source
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- 4S store and brands’ official websites become more important for confirmation than searching and filtering
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- Figure 57: Importance of information source, October 2019
- Consumers with budget below RMB200,000 rely more on friends and family; higher budget consumers care more about voices on social media like KOL
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- Figure 58: Importance of information source – when I don’t have wanted models, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
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- Figure 59: Importance of information source – when I have wanted models, by car purchasing budget, October 2019
- Young consumers tend to use various channels to find their preferred car models
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- Figure 60: Importance of information source – when I don’t have wanted models, by age, October 2019
- Figure 61: Importance of information source – when I have wanted models, by age, October 2019
Test Driving Channels
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- 4S stores are still the dominating channel for test driving
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- Figure 62: Test driving channels, October 2019
- Consumers with lower household income have less experience of test driving
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- Figure 63: Test driving channels, by monthly household income, October 2019
- NEV-only consumers try various channels for test drives, especially online
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- Figure 64: Test driving channels, by energy type priority, October 2019
Meaning of Car Ownership
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- Car stands for privacy and fun
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- Figure 65: Meaning of car ownership, October 2019
- Consumers with higher household income are looking for a display of their personal taste
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- Figure 66: Meaning of car ownership, by monthly household income, October 2019
- NEV-only consumers have higher expectation towards car ownership
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- Figure 67: Meaning of car ownership, by energy type priority, October 2019
Car Purchasing Attitudes
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- Both professionalism and environment in 4S stores are important
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- Figure 68: Car purchasing attitudes – selected item, by selected demographics, October 2019
- Online social media information is powerful, and celebrity endorsement works better with high income consumers
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- Figure 69: Car purchasing attitudes – selected item, by monthly household income, October 2019
- A fear of missing out is among consumers who are interested in NEV, while resale price is bothering consumers who are undecided
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- Figure 70: Car purchasing attitudes – selected item, by energy type priority, October 2019
- Little interest in second-hand car and old model
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- Figure 71: Car purchasing attitudes – selected item, by monthly household income, October 2019
- Brand origin and brand class not as important as before
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- Figure 72: Car purchasing attitudes – selected items, by monthly household income, October 2019
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 73: Total sales volume of new passenger cars, 2014-24
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 74: Total sales volume of petrol cars, 2014-24
- Figure 75: Total sales volume of BEV cars, 2014-24
- Figure 76: Total sales volume of PHEV cars, 2014-24
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
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